226
FXUS63 KLMK 140759
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday
   and into Sunday.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
   during this time frame with 1-2 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

We can expect more of the same, dry, mostly sunny weather along with
above normal temperatures for today with highs in the mid/upper 70s
to near 80 across the KY/TN border. We remain under the influence of
strong upper ridging and sfc high coming out of Canada into the
Upper Midwest during the day. Higher gusts out of the northeast are
possible this afternoon as a weak cold front works into central IN
and stalls just to our north. This will slightly tighten the
pressure gradient over the area along with added daytime mixing.


High pressure will continue to build in over the Great Lakes tonight
as winds are expected to diminish and become calm. Lows will be a
little warmer than some of the past nights in the lo2 50s to upper
40s and some patchy fog in river valleys and low lying areas are
once again possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

We will remain under the influence of both upper ridging aloft and
sfc high pressure through the end of the week. This will continue
our dry and generally above normal temperatures for the second half
of the week. Upper low Over the western US will slowly shift
eastward from Wednesday towards the Dakotas as it gets absorbed and
become a deep upper trough over the central US by Friday. This will
shift the upper ridge eastward along with the sfc high pressure by
Friday. This will set up return flow over the Ohio Valley advecting
in Gulf moisture from the south with increased clouds.

By the weekend, the well advertised upper trough will begin to work
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. More Gulf
moisture will continue to advect in from the south pushing dewpoints
into the upper 50s/low 60s and increasing PWAT values to around
1.50" to 1.75" as a strong cold front approaches from the west. This
will increase the chances of showers as well as thunderstorms for
late Saturday into Sunday. There remains some timing issues between
the deterministic models as the GFS remains the faster solution
wanting to bring some of the showers/storms into the area by the
afternoon, while the ECMWF remains slower with a more Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Models show increased instability axis
developing ahead of the approaching cold front with a strong LLJ of
around 35-45kts. Both the SPC, CSU Machine learning and CIPS severe
analogs key in on an area from the Ark-La-Tex into central
IL/southern IN and nosing into parts of western KY. As was mentioned
in the previous forecast, the better dynamics and instability look
to be mostly east of our area during the day on Saturday, but as the
trough axis and associated cold front work into the region Saturday
night into Sunday, we could see an increased threat of strong to
even severe storms, mainly for western KY.

The other impact could be from localized flooding as guidance
continues to show the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over
the area, with locally higher amounts from heavier showers and
storms. Additional development Sunday for more convection is
possible as the cold front begins to gross the area during the day.
Limited instability and shear may help to minimize the threat but
this will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

Ahead of the cold front on Saturday, highs will be their warmest
into the low/mid 80s. Colder air arriving behind the cold front
along with increased clouds and possible showers will see highs in
the upper 60s to near 70. As the upper trough works eastward and
develops into a closed low over the eastern Great Lakes, cold air
advection behind the departing system will bring another cool day to
start next week. Highs again in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Little to no change in the going forecast with VFR flight categories
continuing through the period as we remain under upper ridging and
under the influence of sfc high pressure. While confidence isn`t
real high BWG could see a brief period or two where we get MVFR or
even IFR VIS, so went with a tempo for a few hours this morning.
Skies will remain clear the only impacts will be winds increasing
some as a cold front tightens as high pressure builds in from the
northwest as a cold front approaches and stalls over central IN this
afternoon. Could see some gusts between 15-20kts still out of the
northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN