639
FXUS63 KLMK 130046
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
846 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  The next chance of rain arrives next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A quiet night is expected with light winds and clear skies. Some
cool spots have already decoupled and fallen into the mid 50s. Some
patchy fog may develop over the area, therefore, patchy fog has been
added to the forecast. Fog will burn off within an hour or two of
sunrise. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Tonight, subsidence from upper high pressure will continue to keep
skies clear as the surface decouples allowing winds to ease. Light
cold air advection with some radiative cooling will help
temperatures fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. A few cooler
protected valleys could see the low 40s.

Monday, the axis of the the positively tilted upper ridge remains
stretched from an upper high over southern Texas to Lake Huron,
remaining over the CWA. At the surface, the high near Maine drifts
just east to New Brunswick. Light CAA will keep highs in the 70s
over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

On Tuesday, the upper ridge is expected to expand over the CONUS,
and now it`s covering more area than earlier guidance. With an upper
low over south-central California embedded in a tight upper trough,
the western side of the ridge will lift north from Arizona and cover
most of the the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England before
diving south along the East Coast. At the same time, a new stacked
low moves east across northern Ontario, bringing another dry cold
front towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but the front
won`t make it to the CWA until Wednesday. As surface high pressure
remains over the region during this time, most probably won`t even
notice the front besides falling temperatures. It will cool from the
mid 70s to low 80s on Tuesday to low to upper 70s on Wednesday before
many only see the upper 60s on Thursday. Western and southern parts
of the CWA are expected to see the low to mid 70s. Skies remain
mostly clear

By Friday, as the surface high passes off to the east, return flow
begins to lift temperatures and moisture levels by the weekend.
Precipitation chances begin increasing from the west ahead of the
next cold front. The GFS keeps the quicker solution bringing in the
precipitation on Saturday while the Euro still holds off until
Sunday. Model soundings show some extra wind energy as the line
moves through, but currently it doesn`t look too impressive for
severe weather. It`s still too far out to put too much into the data
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Upper ridging will continue to keep clear skies and light winds over
the region through this TAF cycle. In the early morning, patchy fog
will be possible over BWG/HNB/RGA and will burn off within a few
hours of sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the Northeast around 4-
7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS/SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...SRW