680
FXUS63 KLMK 071031
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
631 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of strong to severe storms today especially across
  far southern Kentucky.

* Heavy rainfall will be possible with showers and storms today
  through Monday. An additional 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mostly cloudy skies were observed across the region this morning.
Temperatures early this morning were in the upper 60s to around 70.
Water vapor loop shows a mid-level trough axis pushing through
southern IN and northern KY this morning.  Just to the southeast of
this feature, an east-west band of showers with heavy rainfall was
located right along the I-64 corridor.  This band of showers has
been holding together quite well despite little surface based
instability. However, low-level shear has been just enough to
produce decent updrafts with efficient precipitation production
leading to moderate to heavy rainfall.  This activity will likely
persist for the next few hours until the upper level wave pulls away
from the region. Until then, a narrow axis of heavy rainfall will be
possible along the I-64 corridor.

Elsewhere, weak isentropic lift and low-level jetting will likely
result in some additional convection firing between Lexington and
Somerset.  Here the activity may develop into another east-west
oriented band affecting areas from roughly Campbellsville northeast
to Richmond.  Low-level moisture here is plentiful and add in
efficient warm rain processes, a quick half to one inch of rainfall
could fall across the area, with some locally heavier amounts.

Overall, this activity should diminish toward sunrise with lows
dipping into the mid-upper 60s.

For today, zonal flow aloft will continue across the region.  We`ll
have a period of dry weather this morning and into the afternoon
hours.  Another mid-level perturbation will likely arrive into our
western CWA later this afternoon.  Greatest concentration of lift
and instability will likely be well to our south across TN/MS/AL/GA.
However, diurnal warming across the region should result in modest
instability across southern IN and central KY this afternoon.  Model
proximity soundings show about 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE though wind
shear through the column is quite weak.  Precipitable water values
of 1.75-2.0 inches will be common in the moisture laden environment.

In terms of severe potential, while we will have modest instability
develop across the region along with plentiful moisture (PWATs 1.7-
2. in), wind shear through the column looks to remain rather weak
for severe weather production.  In general multi-cellular clusters
of storms appear likely from mid-late afternoon through the evening
hours.  The main weather hazard will be moderate to heavy rainfall
with the activity.  A few damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out
with any stronger storm cores that develop.  The highest risk of
damaging winds look to remain south of the Cumberland Parkway
corridor.  Isolated flash flooding will be possible in areas that
see training of storms across the same areas.

As for temperatures this afternoon, we`ll start of the day rather
cloudy, but partly cloudy skies are expected in the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 80s.

For tonight, clusters of showers and thunderstorms should be in
progress across the region this evening.  The greatest coverage
looks to be across central Kentucky.  This activity should continue
into the late evening before diminishing.  Again, heavy rainfall
will be the main weather hazard with this activity and some isolated
hydro issues could develop in some areas.  Lows tonight will
generally be in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Sunday through Tuesday Night...

Moving into Sunday, upper trough axis will push through the region
and allow stalled out frontal boundary to drop southward through the
region.  This will bring another round of showers and a few storms
to the region.  Combination of modest instability and weak wind
shear will likely limit severe convection across the region.  As
such, the marginal risk from SPC has been drastically reduced across
the region. Highs Sunday afternoon will warm into the upper 70s in
most spots, thorugh a few locations may hit 80.

Closed upper level low is expected to be located across northern MN
by Sunday night.  A secondary upper trough axis and re-inforcing
cold front is forecast to drop down into the region late Sunday and
into early Monday morning, bringing another round of showers and a
few storms.  This activity will linger into Monday afternoon with
drier weather expected to arrive by Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday.

Lows Sunday night will be in the mid-upper 60s.  Highs Monday will
be in the upper 70s to around 80.  Cooler temps arrive Monday night
with lows in the upper 50s.  Highs Tuesday will warm into the upper
70s to near 80 with lows in the upper 50s to around 60.

As for total QPF, combining Saturday and Saturday night with the
Sunday/Monday rainfall, total additional rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches
is expected.  Localized higher amounts are possible, especially
where storms train.

Wednesday through Friday...

Upper level troughing will be seen across the eastern US with modest
ridging in the west by mid-week.  This flow pattern looks to keep
the region dry on Wednesday and into Wednesday night.  From Thursday
and beyond, another upper trough axis is forecast to develop over
the southern Plains and work eastward.  This will likely bring more
unsettled weather into the region late Thursday and continuing into
the weekend.  Highs Wednesday look to warm back into the lower 80s
with lows in the low-mid 60s.  Highs Thursday and Friday should
trend warmer with readings in the low-mid 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Low clouds and some light fog will be seen at the terminals this
morning.  Cigs will be in the IFR to LIFR range with vsbys remaining
in the MVFR/VFR range.  Improvement to cigs to VFR is expected by
mid-late morning.  Winds will start off out of the northwest this
morning but will shift to the southwest by mid-late morning. Another
round of convection is expected to move into the region after
07/20Z.  Convection should continue into the evening hours before
diminishing around 08/04Z or so.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ