281
FXUS63 KLMK 091947
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
347 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry weather expected for Monday-Wednesday time
  frame. Above normal temperatures expected all week.

* Gusty winds and heavy rain possible Friday night through Saturday
  night as a strong low pressure system is expected to track through
  the central US. Strong to severe storms may also accompany this
  system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Sfc high pressure is across the region today, which has resulted in
mostly clear skycover and light sfc winds. While the Ohio Valley is
on the eastern periphery of a broad upper ridge, an upper low is
over the ArkLaTex region, which is supporting a sfc low tracking
along the Gulf Coast. Clouds associated with this system have
remained mostly to our south, though a few high level cirrus have
quietly streamed into parts of far southern KY. No impacts from this
system are expected for our forecast area. Temps today have reached
the mid 50s, which is near normal for this time of year.

For tonight, quiet weather will continue as high pressure and
subsidence remains in place. Light and variable winds, with clear
skies, should help our sfc temps drop into the 30s by tomorrow
morning.

Tomorrow features a similar forecast, with dry weather and plenty of
sunshine. Temps will be warmer though, thanks to a slightly better
WAA regime. Temps tomorrow are expected to reach the upper 60s,
though some locations could be closer to 70. With such a dry column,
afternoon RH values should be able to mix down to the 20s for many
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Dry weather and unseasonably mild temperatures, at least during the
day, are expected through mid-week as flat upper ridging builds
across the southern CONUS. Efficient radiational cooling will allow
min temps to drop solidly into the 40s each night, but this pattern
supports overachieving daytime temps and dry air mixdown. Therefore
went toward the high end of guidance for max temps, while nudging
dewpoints to the lower end of guidance.

By Wednesday night a progressive southern stream trof begins to tap
into Gulf moisture as it traverses the Red River Valley. However,
there is enough low-level dry air that most of the QPF will be lost
to evaporation, so POPs and QPF are quite low with this system.
Diurnal temp ranges will narrow, but should remain well above
normal.

Expect shortwave ridging aloft and increasing return flow on Friday
ahead pf a vigorous low deepening over the Plains. Main sensible wx
impact during the day will be near-record temps with a few spots
likely to push 80.

The first half of the weekend is quite unsettled with a 972mb sfc
low lifting NNE into Minnesota, and the warm conveyor belt bringing
a shot of moderate to heavy rain into the Ohio Valley Friday night
into Saturday morning. Even coming through at a diurnal min for
instability, the strength of the low-level jet could easily support
stronger storms with locally damaging wind potential. Strong and
gusty gradient winds could also warrant headlines, though it`s quite
early for that discussion yet.

At this time it looks like a second prong to this system comes
through in the form of a secondary low riding up the slowing cold
front on Saturday night. The flow aloft and the slowing boundary
could line up nearly parallel to one arly parallel to one another,
supporting excessive precipitation. another, supporting excessive
precipitation for at least some part of the Ohio Valley.

Bottom line it looks like a very active weekend with multiple
hazards on the table, and any interests in southern Indiana or
central Kentucky should keep close tabs on the forecast through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR flight conditions will continue with this TAF period. SKC and
light winds are expected through tomorrow. A low pressure system
crossing the Gulf Coast has spread clouds as far north as southern
KY, which are high level and not expected to cause any impacts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP