511
FXUS63 KLMK 011844
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
244 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated shower possible this evening east.

*  Otherwise, Partly cloudy west; Mostly Cloudy East

*  Becoming Mostly Sunny on Wednesday

*  Mostly Dry weather with seasonable to above temperatures
   late week and this weekend but cooler next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Synopsis:

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a diffuse cold front
east of our area, over the Appalachians. Strong high pressure was
centered over NB/KS, and was building southeastward  into the Ohio
Valley. GOES16 shows lingering cloud cover in the wake of the cold
front across Central KY, with lower clouds found across the
Bluegrass.  Northwest surface winds were in place and dew points
were mainly in the 60s. The flow aloft showed a trough over the
Great Lakes, while ridging was found stretching from California to
the lower Mississippi Valley. This was resulting in Pacific
northwest flow streaming across the northern plains and then into
the Ohio Valley. Water Vapor imagery showed subsidence across
Central KY.

This evening -

As some clearing has developed across the western parts of Central
KY, convective temperatures have been reached allowing some CU
development. The HRRR has responded with some isolated light rain
showers shown to develop late this afternoon and early this evening.
Coverage should be limited and light for any location that does see
rainfall. For now will stick with mainly 20% pops through 00Z across
the northeast half of the forecast area.

Overnight -

As heating is lost, any lingering showers will quickly dissipate.
Models show steady southeastward progress of the surface high as the
northwest flow aloft continues. Little in the way of forcing
dynamics is seen as the surface high arrives tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show strong mid level drying with a trapping
inversion present within the lower levels. This will likely result
in some of the pesky clouds lingering over eastern Central KY to
persist through the overnight hours. More clearing will be expected
in western Central KY and Southern Indiana as drier air and lower
dew points will be arriving there first. Thus mostly cloudy skies
east, with clearing skies across the west is expected.  Coolest lows
in the upper 40s will be found in south central Indiana, while much
of KY has lows in the low to mid 50s.

Wednesday -

Strong surface high pressure to the northwest will build eastward on
Wednesday. The high will reach southern IL and western KY in the
afternoon, allowing continued cool, northerly surface flow across
Central KY.  Forecast soundings through the day show a dry column
with a mid level  inversion that should prevent much in the way of
cloud development. Any morning clouds found across the Bluegrass are
expected to dissipate by late morning as heating and mixing resumes
along with the arrival of drier air. Thus we will look for skies to
become partly cloudy/mostly sunny with pleasant high temperatures in
the low to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A pair of cold fronts, steered by Great Lakes waves, could bring a
few showers to the area around Friday and again around Sunday and
Sunday night. Although, moisture will be the main issue opposing
showers, as model soundings are showing a mostly dry column through
early next week. Otherwise, good confidence that surface high
pressure, zonal flow and a mostly dry column should bring dry
weather along with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures
with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday and Sunday
look like the warmest days of the period with middle 80s possible
during the afternoon, just ahead of the advancing fronts.

Cooler weather should arrive next week, in the wake of the second
cold front, as winds turn to the northwest and north, resulting in
modest cold advection. Many locales may not see temperatures as warm
as 70 degrees starting Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR Cigs at LEX and RGA this afternoon and tonight.
- VFR Cigs elsewhere

Discussion:

Stratus and low cloud in the wake of a cold front were still
lingering across Eastern Central KY.

GOES16 shows MVFR Cloud cover at LEX and RGA, as well as points
upstream across northern KY. Forecast soundings show an increase in
height with these clouds this afternoon, but moisture lingers
through the evening and overnight as cold air advection continues.

Meanwhile at SDF, HBN and BWG, MVFR CIGS have already exited
the area. Continued northwest flow and ongoing cold air
advection will allow for BKN VFR Cigs through the afternoon
before leading to clearing overnight.

Clear skies and diminishing winds will take hold on Wednesday
morning across all the of Taf sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP