203
FXUS63 KLMK 191037
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
637 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Patchy fog to start, but another dry and warm day expected for
   today. Temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s and near 90
   degrees.

*  Mainly dry and hot weather through Sunday with highs each day
   near or above 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light winds and increased low level moisture is resulting in some
patchy fog development this morning. Thin high level cirrus clouds
have been streaming from west to east across the region this morning
too, which could be slightly helping keep fog mostly limited to the
valleys. Patchy fog will remain possible before sunrise this
morning, but should see any fog dissipate around or shortly after
sunrise. For today, expect dry conditions as upper level ridging
builds overhead. Temperatures overachieved yesterday, and the
warming trend continues today as increasing thicknesses result in
warmer temperatures for today. Most areas will reach the upper 80s
again, but some spots could reach 90F, especially in urban settings.
Today will be the first of a multi-day stretch of unseasonably warm
temperatures and dry conditions. Model soundings definitely show a
drier column than yesterday, so overall cloud cover should be less
today. However, we may have enough moisture at the top of the
boundary layer to still get some afternoon diurnal cu development,
but overall cloud coverage will be limited, and most can expect a
sunny day.

For tonight, mostly clear conditions remain in place as high
pressure sits overhead. Light winds, clear skycover, and increased
low level moisture, could once again offer the potential for some
patchy fog development before sunrise Friday morning. Temperatures
will be similar to this morning, with most areas in the lower 60s,
with the main exception being the Louisville metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dry and unseasonably warm weekend in store as upper ridge centered
over Texas will be our main weather player. Weak front advancing
from the Upper Midwest Friday into Friday night will most likely get
too far ahead of its upper support before making any sensible wx
impression this far south. H8 temps will push 20C through the
period, supporting daily highs in the lower 90s for most. Dewpoints
mainly in the lower to mid 60s will keep heat index values very
close to the actual air temperatures. However, some modest moisture
pooling over southern Indiana will keep dewpoints closer to 70, and
provide a bit more support for isolated diurnal convection. However,
absent a source of lift, probabilities are still too low at this
time to warrant mention in forecast products. Min temps solidly
above climo with lows in the 60s for most, though SDF might not dip
below 70 on some nights.

Upper ridge flattens out early next week, opening the door for
northern stream disturbances crossing the Great Lakes to push a sfc
cold front into the Ohio Valley. Not confident in a clean fropa, so
will lean on the side of unsettled weather with a 30-40% chance for
showers and storms Mon-Wed, but not much in the way of widespread
drought relief in the next week. The weekend`s heat will break by
Tuesday, if not Monday, but temps will continue to run just above
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

SCT thin cirrus continues to drift across the area from west to east
this morning. Terminals are mostly VFR, though some very patchy fog
is resulting in HNB to bounce up and down in flight categories. LEX
also experienced this earlier. Expect these changing conditions to
continue for an hour or so, but steady VFR will return not long
after sunrise. VFR today and most sunny, but should have some
diurnal cu develop this afternoon. Winds will remain rather late and
somewhat variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP