102
FXUS63 KLMK 302342
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
742 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, with rain
  chances lingering tonight into Tuesday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Turning hot and muggy again next weekend, with storm chances
  returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms have fired up across the
region this afternoon, which is due to a high PWAT airmass,
steepening low level lapse rates, and marginal destabilization. SPC
has trimmed the marginal risk from most of the area, which is
appropriate given the lack in wind shear. These diurnally-driven
isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the
rest of the afternoon, but should see coverage diminish closer to
sunset and loss of heating.

Cold front will begin to move through the forecast area late
tonight, which will become the focus for additional showers and
elevated storms for the overnight. Model soundings suggest weak
shear and elevated CAPE will keep storms off the sfc and
unorganized, but PWATs near 2 inches will keep a heavy rain threat
going. Fortunately, storm motions should be progressive enough to
mitigate flooding concerns, but some minor ponding issues could be
possible in any poor drainage areas.

The front will sweep through the rest of the forecast area tomorrow,
with pre-frontal precip activity mainly east of I-65 by the
afternoon. Coverage again looks to be mainly scattered, so some
areas could end up remaining dry. Cloud cover will also be
decreasing as the front passes through, so expect more sunshine
especially by the afternoon hours. Temps are forecast to range in
the 80s, though the air will still feel muggy thanks to sfc
dewpoints lingering in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Drier weather will filter into the region by Tuesday night as high
pressure builds across the mid-Mississippi Valley. With this drier
trend, less humid air will result in our dewpoints dropping into the
60s during the daytime hours by Wednesday. Should be a nice and
sunny day, with temps peaking in the upper 80s. Upper ridging will
continue to build over the central US on Thursday, with the high
pressure still overhead. A similar forecast is expected, though a
few more places could approach 90 degrees by the afternoon. A weak
and dry cold front could drop through the region Thursday night, but
no precip is expected with this passage.

By Independence Day, the weak frontal boundary will be south of the
region, with the sfc high beginning to slide eastward. Temps are
expected to hit the 90s in the afternoon, and will remain in the 80s
by the evening hours. Dry weather is expected for the holiday.

As we get into the weekend, deeper southwest flow will increase
dewpoints back into the 70s. Strengthening WAA regime will support
temps climbing into the 90s for Saturday through Monday. PoPs make
a return on Sunday and Monday as another cold front passes through
the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A few showers are around currently, however we should be in a
relatively quiet stretch until later to night when scattered showers
and storms move into the region ahead of an upper disturbance and
surface cold front. There is some question as to the degree of
coverage overnight, but felt good enough to include Prob30 mention
for some TSRA at SDF/HNB, and will go with SHRA at LEX/BWG/RGA.
After the early to late morning showers and storms, some MVFR
ceilings may set in until mid to late afternoon when the front
clears the area. Look for NW winds through much of the day tomorrow
as winds swing around behind the frontal passage.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS