281
FXUS63 KLMK 191154
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
754 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible today in
   southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. A few stronger storms are
   possible.

*  Showers and storms expected very late Sunday night into Monday
   morning, severe threat is very low.

*  Dry and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances
   return later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Still keeping an eye on a bowing segment that has entered southern
Illinois. This feature has slowly weakened over the past hour or so,
and is likely going to continue weakening as it pushes NE. It is
falling behind behind a surging outflow boundary from
downstream convection. This should keep the wind threat more
minimized as it will encounter some additional low level
stability in the wake of the outflow. Recently noticed that PAH
stopped warning on the storm, and expect that the severe threat
will continue to be diminished as it approaches our southern
Indiana counties. Still can`t rule out an isolated wind damage
or hail threat, but for the moment, the threat has diminished a
bit.

Previous Update...

Currently watching upstream convection in Missouri, where a notable
severe line segment will soon be approaching the Mississippi River.
Earlier convection to the north across central IN has left behind an
outflow boundary from north of Evansville to Bedford. There is some
concern the Missouri convection could impact a portion of our
southern IN counties during the mid to late morning hours. The
downstream thermodynamic environment is less favorable, but fast
storm motions (50+ kts) and strong low to mid-level SW flow raises
some concern for bowing segments and localized damaging winds. Will
continue to monitor closely, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch could
be considered if the upstream line continues to intensify/accelerate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Conditions remain dry, mild, and a little breezy early this morning
in central KY and southern IN. An upper level low will continue to
rotate southeast over the Desert Southwest today, while strong
ridging remains over the Southeast. Fast, deep-layer SW flow will
continue to advect moisture northeast from the southern Plains
across the Mid-MS and OH Valleys. This occurs along a southward
sagging cold front, which will eventually become stationary over the
OH Valley this weekend.

Rainfall chances and thunderstorm probabilities are tricky today,
but in general, the best chance for occasional showers or a possible
storm will be across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
However, dry weather appears set to continue through sunrise for the
vast majority of the forecast area.

Deep convection is ongoing early this morning along the front from
OK to MO/IL. This activity will continue to spread northeast with
time as convective outflow augments the effective frontal boundary.
Portions of southern IN could see some of this outflow or
weakening/outflow-dominant convection by mid to late morning. With a
lingering boundary now in the area, isolated to scattered
showers/storms will be possible at times through the afternoon and
evening hours in southern IN and northern KY. Abundant convective
debris clouds are expected to limit sfc heating and destabilization.
Weak buoyancy will limit thunderstorm intensity in general, but
isolated strong storms are possible given strong SW flow aloft.

It is worth noting that much of central KY will enjoy a mostly dry
Saturday. The southeastern half of the forecast area could stay
completely dry all day. It will be another warm day with stout
southwesterly breezes, just with more cloud cover than Friday. Highs
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Late this evening and overnight looks fairly quiet ahead of more
organized thunderstorm activity over the southern Plains. Decided to
hold on to Slight Chance/low Chance PoPs across the northern CWA
with the stalled boundary in the area. Lows will range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Sunday - Monday...

The cold front will lift back north and ridging will build overhead
as a new low pressure system develops over the southern Plains. This
system will move over the mid-MS Valley and into the Great Lakes
Sunday into Monday, bringing a cold front through the OH Valley.
Ample shear and moisture, but limited instability overnight will
allow for decaying showers and storms to move through the region.
Storms continue to trend non-severe as the upper trough (and
best forcing) remains to the west and north of the region.

Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday in the low-mid 80s. As
the cold front moves through on Monday, temperatures will return to
near normal in the low-mid 70s.

QPF with this system will be around 0.5 inch or less.


Monday Night - Tuesday Night...

High pressure and zonal flow aloft will build in behind the cold
front, allowing dry and seasonable temperatures to return to the
region.


Wednesday - Saturday...

Messy southwesterly flow begins to set up over the region along yet
another stalled cold front in the latter half of next week. Multiple
disturbances will bring shower and storm chances Thursday through
the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with WAA
and southerly flow into the region. PWATs are forecasted to be 1.4-
1.8 inches during this time, which is near max climatology for
April. Current QPF is 0.75 - 1.5 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A cold front, augmented by thunderstorm outflow, will sink south
toward the Ohio River today. Isolated to scattered shra/tsra will be
possible near HNB and SDF at times. MVFR ceilings will also be
possible, particularly at HNB (and with any heavier shower or
storm). BWG/LEX/RGA will likely be drier with breezy SW winds today.
Winds will diminish later this evening as low-level mixing decreases
and the boundary sinks into the area. A band of low clouds will be
possible early Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...EBW