056
FXUS63 KLMK 222016
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Spotty flurries Thursday into Friday with moderating temperatures
   towards the weekend. A mix of rain and snow is possible on
   Sunday night, but forecast confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Tonight, near the axis of an upper trough and between a surface low
centered over the Great Lakes and high pressure along the East
Coast, the Lower Ohio Valley will see warm air advection continue
through the night. Some mid-level cloud cover is expected to move
over the CWA early in the night before skies clear for most of the
night. This clearing is a negative for temperatures as radiative
cooling will begin, but the 5-10 mph southern winds with some 15 mph
gusts will limit falling temperatures to the teens. This is still
cold, but it`s still around 15 degrees warmer than last night.

Tomorrow, a large upper trough drops south through the Rockies
before cutting to the east over the Gulf Coast States and off the
Mid-Atlantic. This will push a shortwave/weak cold front, extending
south of the aforementioned surface low over the Great Lakes,
through the Ohio Valley. Limited early warm air advection in the day
will help get temperatures into the 30s across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.

During the afternoon/evening hours, as the cold front drops
southeast through the region, flurries and/or light snow showers are
expected to pass from west to east through the CWA. Also, expect
winds to begin veering towards the northwest behind the front to
usher in the next round of cold air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...

A shortwave trough axis is forecast to push through the region
Thursday night and early Friday.  The global models here remain
quite dry, but the high resolution HRRR suggests that at least
scattered snow flurries and perhaps some isolated snow showers may
develop here.  Some very minor accumulations could occur Thursday
night with a coating to perhaps a quarter of an inch in spots.  Lows
Thursday night will be cold with readings in the upper single digits
across southern IN and northern KY with mid-upper teens across
southern KY.

Friday may start off with some lingering flurries in the morning
with drier conditions in the afternoon as the upper trough axis
pushes east.  Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 20s over
southern IN and northern KY with highs in the upper 20s to the lower
30s over southern KY.  Lows Friday night will be in the upper single
digits to lower teens over the Bluegrass region.  Elsewhere, lows of
15-20 are expected.   A southerly flow will get re-established on
Saturday with milder temperatures expected.  Highs will range from
the lower 40s across southern IN and into northern KY.  Across
southern KY, highs of 44 to 49 look likely.  Lows Saturday night
will drop back into the 25-30 range.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Still will need to watch the Sunday-Monday time frame for the
potential for some mixed wintry weather.  Previous model solutions
showed a plume of moisture coming up ahead on approaching upper wave
coming in from the Plains.  The GFS was more aggressive here with
the Euro/Canadian being more suppressed with the system.  This
afternoon`s model runs were similar in the Canadian/Euro camps with
keeping the system well to our south.  However, the GFS remains on
the north side of the guidance envelope with some light rain/snow
across portions of southern KY.  Overall, ensemble spread here
remains quite high, so forecast confidence remains low.  If
moisture can get further north into KY, snow would be possible over
southern IN/northern KY with more of a cold rain across southern KY.
For now, will keep some low chance PoPs over the southern areas and
continue to monitor over the next few days.   Highs Sunday will
likely warm into the lower 40s with overnight lows in the middle 20s.

For Monday through Wednesday, a split flow pattern looks to develop
across the CONUS with a deep cutoff low over the southwestern US and
downstream confluent flow from the MS Valley eastward through the
Mid-Atlantic.  Eventually this upper low over the SW will eject out
and come into the eastern US by mid-late week.  Highs Monday will be
in the lower 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s.   Milder
readings are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper
40s to near 50 and overnight lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow morning. Surface high
pressure continues to slide to the east, resulting in increased
southern surface winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
There is low confidence in marginal LLWS tonight, but trends
continue to lower chances. As a cold front nears the region from the
northwest, ceilings are expected to begin dropping into MVFR levels
by mid-morning Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW