972
FXUS63 KLMK 021103
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today, scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for the
  afternoon and evening hours.

* Best chance for .5" to 1" of rainfall will be across southern and
  eastern KY through Thursday.

* A second cold front will bring additional rain chances to the
  region Friday night or early Saturday. This will bring cool and
  dry air for the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Today, northwest flow will push a shortwave southeast from the
Midwest towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This along with the pooled
moisture (PWATS around 1") over the CWA from the inverted surface
trough will allow for better chances for increased coverage of
scattered showers. The best chances for precipitation still remain
south of the Ohio River, but a few showers and thunderstorms could
still make it into southern Indiana. Instability and shear remain
limited, so not expecting anything severe. High temperatures are
expected to reach into the low to mid 80s.

Tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin to fade
early in the night. More cloud cover can be expected over southern
Kentucky with clearer skies farther north towards the Ohio River.
With light winds and added moisture from today`s rain, areas that
clear could see some patchy fog heading into Wednesday morning.
Low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

With a shortwave moving through early Wednesday, it`s looking
increasing like precipitation chance could remain east of the CWA,
remaining in eastern Kentucky. We are keeping low chances of
precipitation along the CWA`s eastern border, including the eastern
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions, but most across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky should see a day with a lot of sunshine
and dry. Highs remain in that low to mid 80s range.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a cold front remains on track
to bring additional widespread showers to the area. Most of the CWA
could receive around 0.25" or rain, but high amounts and chances
currently appear to be over the northeast part of the CWA with the
lowest chances over the southwestern parts of the CWA, near Bowling
Green. Given the early arrive of the front, model soundings look
very stable once again, so severe weather isn`t expected.
Precipitation will exit the central Kentucky by Thursday night.

Models continue to agree on a second reinforcing cold front arriving
sometime Friday or Saturday. The Euro solution continues to be the
slower solution, brining the front and additional rainfall to the
southern Indiana Friday night and central Kentucky early Saturday,
but the GFS is a little quicker, arriving during the day Friday. Now
that they both have precipitation with deep layer moisture reaching
to PWAT values to around 1.6-1.75". Rainfall amounts are still low,
but this could increase in coming forecasts when agreement is
better.

Behind the front, skies are expected to become mostly sunny on
Saturday and last at least into the beginning of next week as
surface high pressure builds in over the region. High temperatures
return to the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 703 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon
and evening. Believe most of the activity will remain south of HNB,
but the other sites could see a quick shower which could limit
visibilities for a short time. Winds are expected to remain light
and variable through the period. Towards the end of the period fog
could be of concern depending on today`s rainfall.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW