864
FXUS63 KLMK 070835
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Additional scattered rain showers this morning, diminishing later
   in the day.

*  Wide range of temperatures from north to south tonight, with near
   40F north of the Ohio River, to mid-50s near KY/TN border.

*  After a dry start to the weekend, widespread rain is forecast for
   Saturday evening through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

The weak frontal boundary continues to bisect the area this morning,
and is driving moisture convergence and scattered rain showers to
move across the area. Throughout the morning, this boundary will
gradually push south and east, and is expected to be across Tennessee
by the mid-afternoon hours.

Scattered rain showers will persist throughout the entire morning as
the front shifts. Model soundings suggest we could end up with some
meager CAPE aloft, which may be enough for a few rumbles of thunder.
However, weak wind shear will keep severe threats low, and we remain
in a general thunder risk for today on SPC`s Day 1. Drier trends
will settle in for southern Indiana folks first this morning, but
decreasing coverage will also be noticeable across the Commonwealth
by the afternoon too.

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today due to the proximity of
the front, though by this evening we`ll begin to see the back edge
of the cloud deck shift southward along with the front. Max
temperatures today will range from low 60s to low 70s from north to
south, with the warmer temperatures centered on the Lake Cumberland
region.

For tonight, drier air filtering in behind the front will support no
precip chances. The main challenge will be forecasting overnight
temperatures due to differing skycover north to south over the
region. Mostly clear conditions will be most possible north of the
Kentucky Parkways, allowing for better radiative cooling, and lower
temps. Clouds associated with the boundary will act like a blanket
across south-central Kentucky, resulting in mild temps. We could
very likely end up with a temperature spread ranging from upper 30s
for southern Indiana to mid 50s along the KY/TN state line.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

The medium range forecast starts off dry on Friday. Progressive
ridging builds east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as a
closed low lifts northeast over northeastern NM and the OK/TX
Panhandles. Low-level NNE flow and a dry airmass will be in place
with the sfc high to our north. After a cloudy midweek period, we`ll
enjoy a good amount of sunshine with afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 60s.

The maturing low pressure system lifts northeast across the central
Plains Friday night and Saturday. High pressure slides eastward
across the eastern Great Lakes on its way to the Northeast/Mid-
Atlantic regions. We`ll stay dry Friday night through Saturday
morning as sfc winds veer easterly ahead of the Plains low. Saturday
morning will be cool with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Low-level warm, moist air advection really kicks into gear on
Saturday. Integrated water vapor transport increases significantly
on Saturday before peaking Saturday night. PW values are forecast to
rise to 1.5-1.6 inches by late Saturday. As the column saturates,
there is a small chance for rain as early as Saturday afternoon for
areas mainly near and west of I-65. However, the bulk of the rain
holds off until after dark. Highs on Saturday are forecast to range
from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The deep moisture plume and 35-40+ kt SW LLJ overspreads central KY
and southern IN Saturday evening into Sunday. Widespread moderate to
occasionally heavy rain is expected. Some isolated embedded rumbles
of thunder will also be possible. Rainfall amounts of 1.0-1.5
inches will be possible through Sunday night. Some minor ponding on
roads will be possible, particularly Sunday. Sunday will feature a
smaller diurnal temperature range, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 60s.

The actual cold front is expected to push through the region around
the Sunday night time frame, with drier air spreading in from the
west. Weak high pressure builds into the region on Monday. Expect
conditions to dry out Sunday night, with partly to mostly sunny
skies for Monday. Highs in the mid/upper 60s should be common on
Monday. We`ll stay dry through at least Tuesday. However, a potent
Pacific upper level wave is forecast to arrive in the central CONUS
by the middle of next week. While the details remain out of focus, a
potentially deep low could drag a strong cold front through the Ohio
Valley Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Rain chances will remain this morning as a frontal boundary bisects
the area. This will also result in restricted flight categories for
the terminals from both lower cigs and vis. Given the scattered
nature of precip through the morning, elected to go with PROB30
mentions since continuous -RA is not expected. Cigs will remain in
the MVFR and IFR ranges due to the boundary. Drier conditions are
expected later today, and we`ll see gradual improvements to cigs,
potentially returning to VFR before the end of the forecast period
for some terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CJP