Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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227 FXUS63 KLMK 061053 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 653 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm late this afternoon into early evening along and east of Interstate 75. * Dry weather and below normal temperatures much of next week. Some frost may occur in the sheltered valley locations Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 One more day of warm temperatures expected for today, but a change in our daily temperatures will soon be here. Upper ridge axis is shifting eastward, making room for a large upper low to track across southern Ontario and just north of the Great Lakes. This upper low will help drive a sfc cold front through our area later today. This cold front is pushing across the Midwest this morning, with obs showing much cooler and drier air behind it. We`ll likely see the frontal boundary approach the Ohio River by the late afternoon. However, this front will struggle to find any deep moisture this far south and west, and the better moisture will align with the forcing well to our northeast. This is highlighted well with the SPC Convective Outlook, which keeps just a part of the Bluegrass (the I- 75 corridor) in a general thunder risk for today. Can`t rule out some isolated showers during the late afternoon and evening near I- 75, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but the majority of the area will remain dry today. Temps will have enough time to warm into the 80s, with breezy SSW winds this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of FROPA. By tonight, our entire area will be in the wake of the front as it continues to slide south and east. In the wake, steady CAA NNW flow will take over, allowing for drier and cooler air to filter in. Morning lows are expected to drop into the 40s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Monday through Wednesday Night... Upper ridge is forecast to be in place across the inter-mountain west with a cool northwest flow across the Ohio Valley. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday with highs in the upper 60s east of I-65 and some upper 60s to around 70 over in areas west of I-65. Skies look to be mainly clear Monday night with a light northerly wind. This will allow temps to fall into the lower 40s in many areas. The typical cold spots that have good radiational cooling along with the valley locations probably will see temps drop into 36- 39 degree range with some patchy frost. Deep northwest flow will continue on Tuesday with high pressure maintaining control of our weather. Temperatures will continue to run below normal here with highs east of I-65 in the upper 60s once again and upper 60s/lower 70s west of I-65. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will likely see temps drop back into the lower-mid 40s with the typical cool spots and valleys getting back into the mid-upper 30s with another threat of patchy frost. Heights will build on Wednesday and we`ll see highs warm into the 69-74 degree range in the afternoon with overnight lows dipping back into the mid 40s Wednesday night. Thursday through Saturday... Mid-level ridging will continue to build across the region for the last part of the work week. High pressure center will be a bit to our east which will allow surface winds to become more southerly with time and no precipitation is expected. Highs Thursday will be in 69-74 degree range again with overnight lows in the 40s. Highs Friday look to warm into the 70-75 degree range with overnight lows back in the 40s. Highs should moderate a bit on Saturday with readings in the 72-77 degree range. Extended Forecast Discussion... Looking beyond the weekend, dry weather is likely to continue on Sunday. A cold front looks to push through the region late Sunday and early Monday. Not overly sure how much moisture we`ll have to work with, but this may bring us some chance of rain as this feature moves through. After that, another period of dry weather is expected. Temperatures through the period look to run near seasonal normals in our eastern forecast area, but may run a little above normal across the western areas. Recently completed signal analysis shows an emerging signal around mid-month or so. It`s roughly centered in the 10/16-10/20 range. The signal is not overly strong and even the dynamical models have had trouble tracking it from run to run. The overall wave pattern analysis continues to show a ridge west, trough east type pattern lingering through at least mid-month which will likely keep the Gulf and SW Atlantic active with tropical systems. This scenario has good support from last week`s JMA extended model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though sfc winds will be the main challenge with this forecast issuance. Southwest flow this morning will become more westerly by the afternoon, and breezy at times. Gusts should remain around or under 20kts. By this evening, a cold front will be sweeping through the region, which will result in our winds becoming more north-northwest for tonight. All terminals should remain dry, but an isolated shower will be possible for RGA (and maybe LEX too) late afternoon or early evening with the cold front. Expected coverage is not enough to warrant mention in the TAF at this time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CJP