487
FXUS63 KLMK 111042
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with highs in the
   low to mid 70s.

*  Gradual warming trend continues early next week, with highs in
   the mid 70s to near 80 for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Weather for the weekend will be dry, mainly clear with temperatures
around seasonal normals with afternoon highs in the low/mid 70s and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 40s to near 50.

A stacked system currently over the the Great Lakes will slowly
press east-southeast during the day today as a weak, moisture
starved cold front works through central to southern IN this morning
then into KY by the afternoon. Mid-level clouds can be seen on the
nighttime microphysics satellite over central IL and northern IN but
are expected to diminish some as they get closer to the area and as
we go into the daytime hours of tomorrow.

By Sunday, the stacked system over the Great Lakes will phase with
the system working northward off the eastern coast of FL up the
southeast coast of the CONUS to around the Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic
coast by early next week. Strong Sfc high pressure and upper ridging
over the eastern third of the CONUS will continue to keep our
weather nice, quiet and seasonal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Weather through the extended remains dry with slightly warmer
temperatures. Upper ridging looks to hold through the week over most
of the central US. A shortwave trough coming out of the Pacific
Northwest this weekend will become a closed low and work over the
top of the ridge in Canada by the middle of the week as the ridge
axis strengthens over East TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Another weak,
moisture starved boundary looks to cross the region from the
northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Other than some increased clouds
across the northern part of the CWA thanks to the Pacific moisture,
the boundary will have generally little overall impact on our
weather. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 70s to start the week.
Wednesday, could see a wide spread in temperatures from north to
south depending on cloud cover as the northern half of the CWA will
be in the low 70s as the southern half in the upper 70s/low 80s on
Wednesday. Cooler air behind the cold front for Thursday as we will
see highs in the low/mid 70s but warm back up on Friday into the
mid/upper 70s ahead of the next potential system by next weekend.

While both the deterministic models indicate a change in the overall
pattern as a trough approaches from the west and a potential sfc low
forming from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes by next weekend
with a strong sfc cold front approaching, temporal and spacial
discrepancies in the models keep confidence lows on exact timing
and overall impacts at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas of fog managed to form in low lying areas and valleys this
morning. This has had a small impact on a few terminals like BWG and
for a period RGA. Satellite showing some mid clouds associated with
the approaching cold front starting to break yo as it moves into
southern IN. Outside of the isolated morning fog, VFR flight
categories with mainly clear conditions and light winds out of the
north expected for today and as we go into tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN