286
FXUS63 KLMK 201404
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1004 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Drier and temperatures closer to normal for mid to late week.

* Below normal temperatures expected for the second half of the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A sfc cold front has now pushed through nearly all of central KY,
extending from western PA southwest through eastern KY and far
southern KY. Drier mid-level air continues to stream in from the
northwest, but lingering low-level moisture is sufficient for fairly
widespread post-frontal stratus north of the Cumberland Pkwy. These
clouds will linger through the morning hours, with gradual thinning
and lifting of the cloud deck through the afternoon and early
evening.

PW values above 1.8 inches lingering south of the WK and Bluegrass
Pkwys will gradually decrease from north to south through the
afternoon hours as drier air advects in from the north. Partial
sunshine, combined with lingering low-level moisture, should be
sufficient to realize 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE this afternoon in south-
central KY. While most will stay dry, there is a slight chance for
an isolated shower or storm.

Temperatures are in the mid 70s beneath the stratus, with closer to
80 degrees noted in southern KY. Highs this afternoon are expected
to range from the low to mid 80s in southern IN and north-central KY
to the upper 80s in southern KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A weak surface low currently over the eastern Great Lakes will
slowly drift eastward today, with its trailing cold front settling
through our area. This feature could continue to act as a weak
trigger for a few isolated showers or storms across our SE CWA
through the morning into the afternoon. However, we are overall
looking for a mostly dry forecast today, especially along and north
of the Parkways. The morning will likely start out mostly cloudy
with a few patches of fog around, but overall should be a more
comfortable "feel" than the past few days a dew points begin to fall
off this afternoon and highs only look to reach into the low and mid
80s for most. Will likely still hold onto some values around 90
across our S, but overall notably cooler/less humid than yesterday.

Cooler and dry conditions will then continue into tonight as surface
high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region behind the cold
front. Lows tonight should settle into the mid and upper 60s for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Thursday - Saturday Night...

Strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will extend influence
into our area through late week. Then, this feature begins to break
down by Saturday as troughing begins to carve out over the eastern
CONUS. The result on sensible weather will feature mostly dry
conditions thanks to the upper ridge, along with near normal
temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday (slight cool
down behind the first cool front) will give way to highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 Friday and Saturday. Lows each night will be
a little more comfortable and mostly in the 60s.

Any chances for a very isolated shower or storm look to be across
our far SE CWA any afternoon/evening closer to a slight weakness in
the upper ridge. Overall, not much of a trigger and just a bit of
extra moisture pooling in these areas still warrant a 20% chance in
the PM hours.

Sunday - Tuesday...

Pretty decent H5 anomaly over eastern Canada by Sunday, with
troughing digging across the eastern CONUS. This will help to drag a
reinforcing cold front across our area by Sunday. A few showers or a
storm possible from Saturday night through Sunday, but still should
stay mostly dry given the lack of overall deep moisture. As a
result, the main story will be the cooler temperatures that follow
into early next week. After highs in the low to mid 80s for Sunday,
highs on Monday/Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows
will solidly be in the 50s for most, especially on Monday
night/Tuesday morning. Dry conditions prevail for Monday/Tuesday as
1025 mb Canadian surface high begins to build in behind the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Cold front is sinking through the area at this time, and we are now
seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings. Expect diminished ceilings to
continue at times through the morning for SDF/LEX/RGA, however
improvement back to VFR is expected for all sites by this afternoon.
May have a few showers near BWG/RGA/LEX this morning, but most
activity should stay south and east of the sites.

Surface winds will be steady out of the N through the day, and may
even see some gusts up around 20 mph in the afternoon. Outside of
that, expect a dry day with improving conditions as surface high
pressure starts to nose into the area behind the cold front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS