622
FXUS65 KLKN 081029
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
229 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Look for generally dry conditions over the next
several days as a ridge of high pressure remains off shore,
keeping the weather dry over northern and central Nevada through
Friday. By Saturday, a shortwave trough will bring light showers
back to northern Nevada with minor accumulations possible north of
I-80. Temperatures will remain at seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Upper level ridging
can be seen across the eastern Pacific at this time, while a
closed upper low is spinning over northern Mexico. This is
creating a northernly flow aloft for northern and central Nevada
with a high cloud shield streaming southward. The northerly flow
will keep a lid on any weather and will also limit temperatures to
below normal values. Winds will be breezy mainly in the central
portions of central Nevada, though gusts are expected to be limited
to 30 mph. Highs today will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Here are
some probabilities of seeing maximum temperatures greater than 40
degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada
this afternoon:

Austin - 20%
Battle Mountain - 90%
Elko - 10%
Ely - 40%
Eureka - 0%
Jackpot - 25%
Jarbidge - 25%
Owyhee - 45%
Ruth - 15%
Spring Creek - 0%
Tonopah - 35%
Wells - 2%
West Wendover  0%
Wildhorse Res - 10%
Winnemucca - 96%

Not much change is expected tonight as the closed low shifts south
but the upper ridge maintaining its place in the eastern Pacific.
A weak wave is expected to dive south along the front periphery of
the ridge, but this will be over Utah and no weather is expected
across the region. It will again be chilly with readings in the
teens to maybe the low 20s.

By Thursday and Thursday night, heights will rise over the
forecast area. Breezy winds are expected to develop over the
east-central and central parts of Nevada, especially in the Ely, Tonopah
locales and points in between. Winds will be out of the north with
gusts to 25 mph. Highs Thursday will remain chilly but a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday, with readings in the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Look for clear and cold conditions Thursday night with
lows in the teens and 20s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Friday and Saturday,
Friday northern and central Nevada will remain under a persistent
high pressure ridge. Friday night into Saturday another shortwave
low pressure trough is forecast to move through the high pressure
ridge. The ensemble and deterministic model data are in agreement
with the depth and time of this system. Along with this system
the forecast is indicating strong post frontal northwest winds
approaching advisory criteria of 30 mph or greater, especially
for elevations above 6500 feet for Elko county. Over the
mountains in northern Elko county depending upon elevation, the
50th percentile snowfall amounts for this system are forecast from
1-4 inches mainly above 6500 feet. Given the strength of the post
frontal winds across northern Elko county,there could be some
blowing snow. For the Ruby mountains, the 50th percentile snowfall
amounts, again elevation dependent, range from 1-2 inches.

Sunday morning into Sunday night, another shortwave low pressure
system is forecast to effect mainly Elko and White Pine counties
with some light snowfall amounts, the 50th percentile amounts
again elevation dependent, range from 1/2 inch up to 2 inches
above 6500 feet.

Monday to Wednesday, the ensemble models and ensemble cluster
analysis, are pretty much in reasonable agree with the persistent
ridge coming back over the western US. There are some differences
in the ensemble runs, some of the runs advertise a weak trough
over southern California and Arizona, and other members favor a
closed low just off the southern California Coast. Under the
closed low scenario off the southern california coast, some
moisture is forecast to wrap northward into southern Nevada bring
a potential for rain/snow showers. For northern and central Nevada
and Cold dry northernly flow is forecast accept by Wednesday the
ensemble models favor the development of a southerly flow bring
temperatures up into the 30-40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions anticipated at all terminals through
the next 24 hours. Gusty winds remain a concern during the
afternoon but will be lower than Tuesday, with peak gusts of 25
knots expected at KTPH and 15 or less at all other terminals.
Winds are expected to diminish again after sunset Wednesday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/85/94