433
FXUS65 KLKN 060857
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
157 AM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The warming trend continues across the state on Sunday
under sunny skies. A weather system will skirt the northern border
Monday increasing cloud cover and bringing perhaps a few raindrops
to northern Nevada but the real story this week is record setting
high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Sunday into Tuesday morning

Ridging overhead on Sunday will continue the trend of pleasant
weather and warming temperatures for the region. Low-level west-
southwest flow Sunday afternoon will bump temperatures up again
into the 50s and 60s for the area. Sunday night into Monday the
axis of a large upper level trough to the northwest will push into
northern NV. The pressure gradient tightens over the northern half
of the state Monday increasing winds over the region but not to
the point of warning criteria.

Monday afternoon a jet streak embedded in the axis of the trough
drapes over the NV/ID border placing its right exit quadrant over
the region. While PW values jump Monday from 0.3 to nearly 0.6
inches from west to east the downward momentum overhead will help
mitigate shower and thunderstorm development with this system. The
bulk of energy and forcing with the system remains north of the
state Monday evening into Tuesday. While a few hundredths of
rainfall accumulation along the northern border cannot be ruled
out, much more than increased cloud cover over the area isn`t
anticipated.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

A gradual warming trend is expected to persist through Thursday
as high pressure strengthens over the western U.S. Highs will
reach into the upper 70s with overnight lows in the 40s. Afternoon
highs across northern and central Nevada will reach around
fifteen degrees above normal by Wednesday afternoon, and seventeen
to nineteen degrees above seasonal averages by Thursday
afternoon.

Starting Friday, uncertainty emerges as cluster analysis and
probabilistic ensemble guidance diverge, with some models
indicating a Pacific Northwest trough advancing eastward,
while others suggest a persistent ridge over the forecast area.
The former scenario would bring increasing southwest-west winds to
10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph. Cooler temperatures expected
on Sunday, with highs lowering into the upper 50s to lower 60s
with overnight lows in the 30s.

Additionally, a rain and snow mix ahead of the attendant cold
front will move into northern Nevada over the weekend. Periods of
light snow are expected in the mountains of Northern Elko County
and the Ruby Mountains Sunday morning into the afternoon, with
snowfall tapering off Sunday evening. Snowfall amounts above 5,000
feet in are expected to be less than an inch.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all
sites through the next 24 hours.


&&

.CLIMATE...Record High Temperatures and High Minimum Temperatures are
possible for the upcoming dates below:

Record High Temperatures:

April 9:
Elko Airport: 76/2012
Ely Airport: 74/1996
Tonopah Airport: 80/1989
Winnemucca Airport: 78/1985

April 10:
Elko Airport: 77/2012
Ely Airport: 75/1989
Eureka Airport: 78/1989

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 7:
Eureka Airport: 38/1990

April 8:
Ely Airport: 37/2006

April 9:
Ely Airport: 39/1966
Eureka Airport: 40/2016

April 10:
Elko Airport: 44/1889
Ely Airport: 42/1972
Eureka Airport: 47/1989
Winnemucca Airport: 51/1907



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/90/94