Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
140 FXUS65 KLKN 162004 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 * A few strong thunderstorms Saturday * Robust, gusty northwest winds Sunday * Slick roads over passes and summits Sunday * Freezing temperatures Sunday night && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Saturday through Sunday night, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. A few strong thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The snow level will drop to around 5,500 feet Sunday morning. As a result, snow should fall over passes and summits along Highways and Interstate 80 Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will make landfall along the coast of the Pacific Northwest tonight. Precipitation ahead of this trough of low pressure will spread eastward across Northern and Central Nevada Saturday morning. A few strong thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening along and just ahead of a cold front. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts near 45 mph. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon: Jackpot - 41% Owyhee - 39% Wells - 34% Elko - 33% Spring Creek - 33% Carlin -31% Eureka - 29% Winnemucca - 28% Ely - 27% Battle Mountain - 26% In wake of the aforementioned cold front, snow levels will drop to around 5,500 feet Sunday morning. This will result in snow falling over passes and summits along Highways and Interstate 80 Sunday. There will be little to no accumulation, although roadways over passes and summits could become slick in spots. Strong, gusty northwest winds are anticipated Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A Wind Advisory may be required. Low temperatures Sunday night will be about ten degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures should fall below freezing in the coldest valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night. Take precautions to protect vegetation from freezing temperatures. Here are probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night: Ely - 90% Eureka - 85% Elko - 75% Spring Creek - 75% Battle Mountain - 65% Carlin - 65% Wells - 65% Jackpot - 65% Owyhee - 60% Winnemucca - 55% An upper-level area of low pressure will open up into a trough of low pressure as it progresses southeastward across Utah Monday. A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over Nevada Monday night. Zonal flow aloft should keep the storm track north of the Silver State Tuesday through next Friday. A warming trend is expected Monday through next Friday. By next Friday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around ten degrees above seasonal values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through Saturday morning. Gusty winds in the 18-22KT range at KTPH, KEKO, and KELY Friday evening will subside after sunset Friday night. On Saturday a storm system moves into the area lowering CIGs and increasing precipitation across the state through Saturday evening. Showers are expected at KWMC and KBAM by 0600 and a couple hours later at KEKO with CIGs around 3000FT at those terminals leading to intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions. Wind gusts will increase substantially Saturday morning as the system moves into the area ranging from 22-30KTs at all terminals through Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 A weather system will impact all zones Saturday with precipitation and winds. Precipitation will initiate in zone 437 early Saturday morning and increase in coverage across the rest of the forecast area through midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development is possible as early as Saturday morning over northern NV zones and will also increase in coverage across the rest of the forecast area through early evening. Precipitation will begin to wane from west to east across the forecast area early Sunday morning. Lingering rain and snow showers are anticipated to persist for zones 438, 469, 470, and 425 until early Monday morning. Saturday afternoon wind gusts will fall below warning criteria but still reach around 30 mph shifting westerly to northwesterly through the afternoon for zones 425, 426, and 427 before subsiding Saturday evening after sunset. RH values well stay well above criteria levels with the system overhead impacting the region on Saturday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...87 SYNOPSIS...87 DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99