386
FXUS65 KLKN 300718
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1218 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The tail end of a cold front will pass across Northern Nevada
today. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Humboldt County
and northern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. A
cooling trend is expected today through Tuesday. By Tuesday
afternoon, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of
year. Gradual warming is expected Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
The southern extend of a cold front will pass through Northern
Nevada today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms should impact
Humboldt County and the northern portion of Elko County this
afternoon into this evening. These showers and thunderstorms will
have little rainfall associated with them. A few thunderstorms
could be strong with wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning strikes. Southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
are likely in most of the service area this afternoon into this
evening. Ahead of and in wake of the cold front, a cooling trend
is expected. High temperatures this afternoon will be around five
degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon. Maximum temperatures
Monday afternoon will be near normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday
Northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday across the CWA as trough
energy exits to the east while at the same time high pressure
begins to build in off the west coast. High temperatures under the
NW flow will be near normal with mid 80s to low 90s for most
valley locations. It will be most sunny on Tuesday, with
relatively light northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph gusting to
around 15 mph.

High pressure approaching from the west on Wednesday will keep
the skies clear and also kick off a warming trend, with highs
mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds remain northwesterly on
Wednesday, but should be a few mph stronger than winds on Tuesday.

Ensemble solutions diverge Thursday onward with respect to the
placement of the high pressure that was progged to be just off the
west coast and moving onshore into CA and western NV on Thursday.
Ensembles are now favoring a halt in the eastward progression of
the high pressure on Thursday, with the high then retrograding
back offshore of CA and southern OR on Friday, with a more
amplified ridge just off the west coast over the weekend. All
ensembles keep the CWA dry through the long term, however the now
favored ensemble solution would keep a northwesterly flow aloft
over the CWA, with a couple embedded shortwaves (one on Saturday
and one on Monday) sliding down the eastern slope of the offshore
ridge, through the Pacific NW and into northern NV. Should this
verify temperatures would likely cool slightly this weekend,
though still remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through Sunday.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
of interstate 80 through Sunday as an upper-level disturbance
moves through northern Nevada although a few mid and upper-level
clouds are expected through the day. A noticeable west-northwest
wind will develop across northern Nevada affecting KWMC, KBAM and
KEKO while southwest winds ahead of the cold front are expected at
KTPH and KELY. Wind speeds of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots from the west are expected at KEKO with gusts around 30
knots from the southwest are expected at KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for White Pine County and
Northeastern Nye County from 12 PM PDT this afternoon until 8 PM
PDT this evening due to relative humidity values as low as 5
percent and sustained southwest winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts
near 35 mph. Although dry thunderstorm probabilities have
decreased (6 percent or less) in Humboldt County and northern Elko
County, a few dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon
into this evening.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across most of
Northern and Central California Tuesday afternoon due to minimum
relative humidity values around 15 percent and northwest wind
gusts 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Sunday White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.

&&

$$

87/96/93/87