835
FXUS65 KLKN 011038
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
338 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 324 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

* Heat Advisory for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka
  County, Northern Lander County, and eastern Elko county today

* Red Flag Warning for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander
  County, and Southern Eureka County today

* A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening
  today through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northern and central Nevada is currently
sitting in between a closed low to the west and an upper level
ridge to the east. For today, current model forecasts are still
showing a very warm day across the region with readings in the 90s
to low 100s in spots. Comparing yesterday`s highs with today`s
doesn`t show much in the way of change in some of the zones with
respect to forecast highs. Have therefore went with a heat
advisory for northern Lander/Eureka, and portions of Elko counties
from 11am until 9pm tonight. In addition, red flag warnings are
in effect today for the central zones as winds and RH will reach
critical conditions. Model forecasts and soundings depict CAPE
values of about 100 to 250J/kg mainly across the eastern half of
the forecast area today. Given the warm temperatures and high
LCL`s, went with mostly dry convection this afternoon. Downdraft
CAPE values will be fairly high so expecting wind gusts to 45 mph
where convection is seen. Highs will be in the 90s for most
locales. Look for isolated showers during the overnight with warm
overnight lows in the 50s to perhaps a few 60s.

For tomorrow, the upper trough will open and move east across the
region. A 50kt upper jet is noted and afternoon CAPE values will
be between 100-400J/kg. The areal coverage of convective activity
will be more versus today. Storm motions will be somewhat fast at
about 15 to 20s knots. Initial expectation is a dry start to
convection tomorrow afternoon with a mix of wet and dry towards
the latter portions of the afternoon and evening. In addition,
convective wind gusts to 45 mph will also be possible with any
storm. Given the closer proximity of the upper low, high
temperatures will be slightly cooler Wednesday afternoon with
readings in the 80s and 90s. Overnight convective activity will
wane by morning with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Southwest flow will develop out ahead of the next trough, which
will bring in a drier air mass. Showers and storms are only
expected in the northern and northeastern parts of the state
during the Thursday afternoon period. Highs will be around normal
with readings in the 80s and 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
40s and 50s.

Look for a ridge of high pressure to build eastward across
the forecast area for the upcoming weekend period. This will help
to bring warmer temperatures in for early next week.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence
regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in
the valleys of northern Nevada this afternoon. High forecast
confidence regarding a critical risk of wildfires in parts of
central Nevada during the afternoon. Low to moderate forecast
confidence with respect to thunderstorm development each
afternoon and evening beginning Wednesday and lasting through
Saturday.

&&


.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through this afternoon.
Isolated, high-based thunderstorms are expected at KELY this
afternoon with erratic gusty winds in and near storms to 40KT until
early evening. Afternoon winds will be S-SW10-20G30kt can be
expected at all terminals until this evening. More convection is
expected Wednesday across much of the forecast area with strong
outflow winds anticipated.

AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for zones 426/427 due to the
combination of critical fuels, strong winds gusting 35-40 mph, and
RH values between 5 and 14%. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also
expected mainly in the southeast portion of the forecast area,
including parts of zones 426/427. Fire weather conditions drop
back to elevated/near critical levels Wednesday and beyond, mainly
due to weakening winds. Isolated to scattered wet and dry
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the forecast area
through Friday.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening
NVZ033-036-038.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening NVZ426-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...94