236
FXUS65 KLKN 272103
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
203 PM PDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds ease this evening, but weather remains
unsettled thru the weekend with opportunity for precipitaton.
Stronger push of precipitaton early next week with weather
remaining active thru at least Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night.

Deep low pressure system poised off shore of the PacNW begins
weakening tonight with upper level flow remaining southwesterly.
Any showers and thunderstorms situated over northern Elko County
late this afternoon will dissipate during the evening hours. Gusty
surface winds will also ease this evening with light winds across
most of the forecast area. Exception will be Humboldt County,
particularly western Humboldt County, where gusts 20 to 25 mph
will persist. Overnight low temperatures reside in the upper 20s
to upper 30s.

Weak shortwave during the day Friday is followed by a stronger one
Friday night that will bring a modest cold front into the forecast
area from the west. Light rain showers will be present across
northern Nevada Friday afternoon with graupel also possible.
Instability looks a little sub-optimal for thunderstorms at the
moment, but a stray lightning strike or two cant be completely
ruled out. Better push of precip moves in Friday night, primarily
after midnight. Based on the timing of the stronger shortwave
Friday night, light snow moves into the eastern half of the
forecast area near sunrise Saturday. Southwesterly breezes present
during the day with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Winds turn westerly and
become light overnight. Daytime high temperatures will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

Start of the weekend, isolated snow/rain showers in the morning
will taper off to calmer conditions in the afternoon and expecting
to last through the rest of the weekend as a weak upper level
ridge pushes the system east, keeping cooler temperatures Saturday
with highs expected to be in the 40s to 50s, and Sunday seeing a
slight warming into the 50s. Overnight lows will also see some
warming with lows Saturday in the 20s to 30s, warming into the
mid/upper 30s Sunday. Afternoon breezes from the west/southwest
each day at 10-15 mph.

The small reprieve from the weather however is not expected to
last long, as models showing active weather pattern of a weak
upper trough moving over the northwest, returning chances of up to
40-70% chance of showers for northern Nevada on Monday. Highs
expected to get warmer in the 50s to 60s, however cooler
temperatures expected late in the afternoon, dropping low
temperatures into the 20s, returning chances for more snow.
Elevated breezy winds from the west at 20-25 mph with gusts up to
30-35 mph. A weak upper ridge will aid in weakening the low
trough, with lingering showers with chances up to 15-25% across
the region remain, however there are some discrepancies with the
ensemble model on the strength of the ridge. Highs Tuesday will be
much cooler in the 40s for northern Nevada, extending to just
south of the US-50 Corridor (parts of N. Nye County expected to
reach into the 50s). Breezy westerly winds at 15-20 mph. By
Wednesday, models showing greater confidence a stronger low
pressure system moving over the southwest U.S. and bringing more
chances for isolated rain/snow showers, however there are still
minor discrepancies on the timing due to the upper ridge the day
before. Temperatures expected to see a slight warming but remain
just below average in the 40s to 50s with overnight lows in the
20s to 30s. Breezy southerly winds at 10-20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour
period with CIG levels expected to get lower as increasing clouds
ahead of the next weather system. Breezy westerly/southwesterly
winds this afternoon at all terminals with winds up to 15-20 kts,
gusts 25-30 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures continue to help increase the melt
rate of mid and high-elevation snowpack, which will make it into
area creeks and streams. Faster responding creeks that will need
to be watched for higher flows include Martin Creek in Humboldt
County, the Owyhee River, Bruneau River, and Salmon Falls Creek in
Elko County.

The Bruneau River reached action stage (6.0 feet) Wednesday night,
and is expected to remain in or near action stage today and tonight
with the continued above normal temperatures. At this time the
Bruneau River is not expected to reach minor flood stage (7.0
feet).

Flooding is not expected elsewhere on regional creeks or rivers
at this time, but water will be flowing swiftly. Residents and
outdoor enthusiasts are urged to use caution when walking along
riverbanks as run off water will be flowing rapidly with cold
spring melt water. Hypothermia can occur rapidly if someone were
to fall in while swift flows can carry a person downstream.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Humboldt.

&&

$$

92/97/97