Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
480 FXUS65 KLKN 060930 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 230 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns. * High temperatures will rise into the low 90s to low 100s by Monday and Tuesday as lows reach the lower 50s to low 60s, bringing moderate HeatRisk to portions of the forecast area. * Critical fire weather conditions possible for Monday and Tuesday afternoon for Central NV as SW winds pick up and Humidity drops. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Thursday. Heat returns Friday and Saturday as highs reach the upper 90s to 100s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 230 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite imagery this morning is showing clear skies over northern and central Nevada. The forecast area continues to sit in between an expansive upper ridge across the southern United States and a closed upper low off the coast of California. For today, skies will remain mostly sunny over much of the area. However, low level streamlines depict some cumulus build-ups across US Highway 50 and parts of northeast Elko county. In addition, added isolated dry thunderstorms to northeast Elko county though probability of seeing strikes is at or less than ten percent. Highs today will be in the 80s and 90s. Winds will be breezy with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. Look for quiet weather tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday and Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected to slowly migrate to the west while little to no movement is expected with the upper trough. Southwest flow will continue over the region, which will keep the dry weather overhead. Highs are expected to climb into the low 90s to low 100s in some of the warmer locales. This will bring moderate HeatRisk levels to the valley areas during both afternoons. Winds will be breezy especially in central Nevada and headline fire weather products have been issued as a result - see fire discussion below. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Wednesday through Sunday, the upper trough is forecast to move east Wednesday and Thursday but no precipitation is expected with this feature at this time. Winds will continue to be breezy and additional fire weather headlines may be needed for portions of northern and central Nevada (Wednesday afternoon) and central Nevada (Thursday afternoon) due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Afternoon highs will cool several degrees with readings in the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Friday through Sunday, the upper ridge is expected to intensify with a center of circulation over southern California and Arizona. This will help to bring warmer conditions to the area with dry conditions persisting. Highs will be in the 90s to low 100s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high regarding warmer temperatures beginning at the start of the work week. Moderate to high confidence exists in critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday afternoon with elevated conditions over the rest of the area. Low confidence exists on isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon across northeast Nevada. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours with no precipitation anticipated. Gusty northeasterly flow of 20-22KTs at KWMC will diminish by mid-day today. Afternoon breezes at KTPH and KELY will range 18-20KT out of the south and will diminish later this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry through the forecast as high pressure builds over the area. Latest model guidance has increased southwesterly flow Monday and Tuesday afternoon for zones 426/427 on Monday and 425/426/427 to sustained southerly flow of 15-20 mph. Wind gusts near 30-35 mph on Monday combined with afternoon relative humidity in the single digits has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for zones 426/427 from 11AM PDT until 8PM PDT Monday. Gusts increase at or above 35 mph over zones 425/426/427 on Tuesday prompting a Fire Weather Watch for those zones from 11AM PDT until 8PM PDT Tuesday evening. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ425>427. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening NVZ426-427. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99