Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
379 FXUS65 KLKN 010732 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1232 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will pass across Northern Nevada today. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Northern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be near seasonal values. A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night A subtle trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern Nevada today. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in Northern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. These showers and thunderstorms will have little rainfall associated with them. A few thunderstorms could be strong with wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Winds will start off from the north this morning, before backing to westerly and increasing this afternoon. West to northwest wind gusts will approach 30 mph this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be near normal for this time of year. A warming trend will start Tuesday. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday High pressure centered just off the central CA coast on Wednesday will bring a dry northwesterly flow aloft to northern and central NV. High temperatures Wednesday will mainly be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph gusting 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon hours. Model ensembles now keep the center of high pressure along the CA coast through Thursday, with a slight amplification to the ridge axis along the west coast. This will result in a degree or two rise in high temperatures to most location in the CWA on Thursday, with continued northwesterly winds Thursday afternoon. On Friday model ensemble solutions begin to diverge with respect to the location of the west coast high. Most ensembles lift the center of high pressure up the west coast, however some members begin to shift the high pressure onshore slightly across Oregon California and into western Nevada. Increasing uncertainty over the weekend as ensembles show a wide range of solutions on how to handle the onshore push of the now weakening high pressure. For now the long term period continues to look dry with temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the CWA. Latest ensembles now favor a slight onshore push to the ridge this weekend, which would negate any chance of shortwaves sliding down through the Pacific NW and clipping northern NV, which is what yesterdays guidance was favoring. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today. Some mid-level clouds will build in the afternoon hours today at KEKO and KELY. Any clouds at KWMC and KBAM this afternoon should be to the north of the terminals. Otherwise, dry at all terminals with northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 kts gusting 15 to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds and clouds diminish this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern and Central California this afternoon into this evening due to minimum relative humidity values around 15 percent and west to northwest wind gusts 25 to 30 mph. A few dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in Northern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. Gradual warming is expected Tuesday into the upcoming weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87/96/87