969
FXUS65 KLKN 010958
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny today through Thursday with highs in the 80s,
and a few locations in central NV reaching low 90s. Dry with a
slight cooling trend Friday through Sunday along with increasing
afternoon and early evening clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Strong high pressure
persists across the region through Wednesday with clear skies and
temperatures trending warmer. Wednesday afternoon central NV will
experience near record high temperatures, including Ely and
Tonopah which currently have forecast high temperatures one degree
above their records. Temperatures across northern NV will be 10 to
15 degrees above normal on Wednesday, though still 2 to 4 degrees
below record levels for the date.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday night. Long range
ensembles look to weaken the upper level ridge across the West
Coast into the second half of this week with flow aloft turning
more zonal in nature. A series of weak shortwave troughs and
attendant surface lows look to nudge the crest of the weakening
ridge, moving along the Northern Tier of the country. The cold
fronts associated with these systems attempt to work southward
into the Great Basin, but appear quite lackluster in terms of
temperature change with strong support for well-above normal high
temperatures to continue across northeastern Nevada through the
workweek. In fact, the NBM gives a 75% chance for a record high at
ELy Wednesday, 70% for Thursday, and a 90% chance on Friday.
Though much lower chances exist for the other climate sites across
the region, it will most certainly remain unseasonably warm with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Heading into this weekend, long range ensemble clusters continue
to shift a longwave trough axis closer towards the Pacific
Northwest coast into with ridging developing slightly further to
our east across the Four Corners region. Though good agreement
exists for warm conditions to continue into early next week, lower
mid-level heights support a slight cooling trend in high
temperatures trending more into the upper 70s to around 80. No
notable signal for precipitation through early next week as the
aforementioned storm track remains to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals today under sunny
skies. Winds today will be mainly westerly at 5-10kts gusting
12-18kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures trend warmer through Wednesday with
high temperatures in most locations in the 80s, and even some low
90s in valleys of central NV. Relative humidity recoveries will be
poor tonight across the region, with some improvement Wednesday
night across northern NV zones 437 438 469 and 470. Temperatures
fluctuate by a couple degrees Thursday through the weekend.
Overall highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal over the
coming week with continued dry conditions. High pressure over the
region will keep winds relatively light through Thursday, with
afternoon gusts generally 10 to 20 mph range. Friday afternoon
winds are expected to increase into the 15-20 mph range with gusts
of 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/84/96/96