381
FXUS65 KLKN 190854
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
154 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather today and Friday with light rain and
isolated thunderstorms in reponse to an upper cut-off low
influencing the region. Period of dry weather begins Saturday
with warmer temperatures by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Deep upper cut-off low continues to move south-southeast along the
coast this morning. Latest numerical solutions indicate the low to
move inland along the U.S./Mexico border Friday morning, residing
over Arizona by sunrise Saturday. The progression of the low
places Nevada under southerly mid level flow today, with flow
becoming northerly by Friday night. This set up, along with
modest PWATs of around a half inch, will bring spotty light rain
showers to the forecast area along with relatively weak isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Activity dissipates tongiht though
returns Friday afternoon for central Nevada with northern Nevada
looking to remain dry under mostly sunny skies with a few daytime
cumulus overhead. Given the modest moisture profiles, significant
rain accumulation is not expected and wetting rains (rainfall
totals 0.10" or greater) will be difficult to come by over the two
day period.

Light to breezy winds present during the afternoon and
evening both days. Southerlies across central Nevada today with
gusts around 20 mph while northerly to variable light winds
reside across northern Nevada with gusts around 15 mph.
Northerlies across the forecast area Friday with gusts 20-25 mph.
Look for daytime high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s with
overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s both days. The typical
colder valleys likely observe low 30s, warranting protection for
gardens or sensitive outdoor plants as patchy frost is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

High pressure off the California coast will bring a dry,
northwesterly flow over our CWA from Saturday through Monday.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s this weekend and on Monday,
and overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for
Saturday and Sunday night, warming to the lower 40s on Monday
night as the high reaches the west coast of the U.S. The ridge
axis will be positioned over our CWA on Tuesday and Wednesday,
resulting in highs warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows
will be in the low to mid 40s on Tuesday night. Lows on Wednesday
night will reach the mid to upper 40s. By Thursday, the high
pressure system will weaken and move out of our area, but highs
are expected to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds (below 10kts) are
expected at all terminal today. An upper level low along the
central CA coast this morning will move SE through the day,
centering along the southern CA coastline tonight. Northern and
central NV will be mostly cloudy today, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly south of KWMC and KBAM and north of KTPH.
Clearing skies tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system passing to the south of the
region will create chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
in portions of central and northern Nevada Thursday afternoon.
Thunderstorms will diminish after sunset Thursday night and
thunderstorm activity on Friday will be confined to mainly N. Nye
and White Pine counties in the afternoon as the low moves away to
the east. That said, any accumulations will be modest and wetting
rains are generally not expected. Afternoon wind gusts on Friday
will be in the 20-25 mph range for northern Nevada but wetter
surface relative humidity values behind the storm systems of this
week do not present critical fire weather concerns.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/96/96/99