908
FXUS65 KLKN 062102
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The first round of a Spring time warm-up is underway,
even as a fast moving clipping trough tries to bring quick shot at
some cooler air, and a few light rain showers across the far north
Monday evening into Tuesday morning. A second upper ridge arrives
late Tuesday that will bring the potential for near record warmth
for central and northern Nevada by Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night

Highly amplified upper level ridge that is transiting across the
Silver State will start to shift away, as the main ridge axis
currently over a north to south line along the Lander/Eureka
county border crosses over into Utah tonight. Temperatures by
Sunday afternoon will be ranging in the upper 50s to upper 60s
with a few locations far western and central Nevada that could
reach into the low 70s for highs. Winds this afternoon and tonight
will be light and variable all with clear skies. Lows Monday
morning will be warmer with lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Winds
Monday will start light and variable, as daytime heating get
underway and with the ridge axis well to the east, winds will
shift to be out of the W to SW. However, speeds will be light to
breezy running at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH
possible. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be a few degrees
warmer than Sunday across the eastern half of the state, however
clouds and a few showers from our next system will be moving in
across the far west, which may limit highs across Humboldt county
to the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Other wise look for highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s Monday afternoon. Speaking of the next
system, a upper trough will be making land fall over California on
Monday morning, but it will have to fight the still amplified
upper ridge over Utah and Colorado to make any headway inland. As
a result this system will only clip northern Nevada, with the best
moisture and lift pushed north into Idaho. Late Monday morning to
the early afternoon time, showers and a thunderstorm or two will
be possible over Humboldt and northern Elko Counties, with
additional showers pushing across the Oregon/Idaho/Nevada border
late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The best precipitation
chances with this system will be north of I-80, but mountain
locations as far south as the Rubies could get some light
accumulations of rain and for the highest elevations, snow.
Amounts will be light with most locations staying dry with this
system, but the lucky few could get up to 0.05 of an inch of
rainfall by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday. A mainly west to east
flow will commence across northern and central Nevada Tuesday
with a very low chance for an isolated shower along the border
with Idaho. Winds will be out of the west 10 to 20 mph with gusts
25 to 30 mph over the forecast area. Skies will be partly to
mostly cloudy in the morning but are expected to become partly to
mostly sunny by the afternoon. High temperatures will be climbing
to above normal levels during the afternoon with readings in the
60s to low 70s. Look for clear and calm conditions Tuesday night
with lows in the 30s.

Wednesday and Thursday, all models have been fairly consistent in
depicting a strengthening ridge across the Great Basin. This will
bring spring-like conditions to the area with afternoon breezes
for both afternoons. No precipitation is expected and highs for
Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Here
are some probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees
for select locations across northern and central Nevada Wednesday
afternoon:

Austin - 40%
Battle Mountain - 85%
Carlin - 80%
Elko - 65%
Ely - 98%
Eureka - 45%
Jackpot - 15%
Jarbidge - 0%
Owyhee - 5%
Ruth - 15%
Spring Creek - 5%
Tonopah - 98%
Wells - 30%
West Wendover  65%
Wildhorse Res - 0%
Winnemucca - 65%

Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s, while it will be even
warmer Thursday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Here
are some probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 75 degrees
for select locations across northern and central Nevada Thursday
afternoon:

Austin - 80%
Battle Mountain - 100%
Carlin - 100%
Elko - 97%
Ely - 100%
Eureka - 80%
Jackpot - 65%
Jarbidge - 5%
Owyhee - 50%
Ruth - 5%
Spring Creek - 70%
Tonopah - 96%
Wells - 70%
West Wendover  60%
Wildhorse Res - 10%
Winnemucca - 100%

Continued quiet conditions will remain for the overnight period
with lows in the 40s.

The ridge axis will be shifting to the east on Friday though highs
will continue to be well above normal with near record
temperatures possible. Southwest flow will keep the spring
conditions around with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
30 mph during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be in the mid
70s to low 80s. One more quiet night will be had by all with lows
in the 40s.

A pattern change may be in the works for the upcoming weekend with
increasing clouds, cooling temperatures, and chances for light
precipitation. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid
70s with cooling conditions on Sunday with readings in the 60s to
low 70s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...Look for a continuation of the VFR conditions across
all sites through the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to
increase Monday afternoon with SW-W10-20G30KT across all sites.


&&

.CLIMATE...Record to near record High Temperatures and High
Minimum Temperatures are possible for the upcoming dates below:

Forecast Temperature/Record High/Year Record Set

Record High Temperatures:

April 9:
Ely Airport: 71/74/1996
Tonopah Airport: 77/80/1989

April 10:
Elko Airport: 79/77/2012
Ely Airport: 77/75/1989
Eureka Airport: 78/78/1989

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 8:
Ely Airport: 35/37/2006

April 11:
Elko Airport: 45/47/2010
Ely Airport: 42/44/1982
Winnemucca Airport: 45/45/2023



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/86/86/86