649
FXUS65 KLKN 292043
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
143 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and unseasonably warm weather to finish the
weekend before winds shift to the north tonight as a weak cold
front moves south into the area. This shift will bring cooler air
into northern Nevada starting Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night

Breezy winds and near record high temperatures prevail to end the
weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and 90s and winds from the
south at 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible mainly in
White Pine county. Sunday night a weak cold front passes through,
shifting the winds northerly and bringing cooler air. Temperatures
will drop into the upper 30s and 40s in northern Nevada while
remaining in the 50s in central Nevada.

Winds will remain light and northerly on Monday as the front
stalls and dissipates over central Nevada, keeping northern Nevada
cooler with highs mainly in the 70s while central Nevada will be
in the 80s to low 90s. Temperatures Monday night will be cool,
with lows in the upper 30s and 40s in northern Nevada and upper
40s and 50s in central Nevada.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Fair weather will continue well into the work week as an upper
level ridge builds high pressure into the SW CONUS on Tuesday. The
ridge is quickly ushered to the east, however, as a low-amplitude
long wave trough to the north forces zonal flow into the region
by Wednesday. This setup will keep the area dry through the end of
the work week with mild temperatures in the 80s. Warmer than
normal temperatures for early October may threaten some high
temperature records especially in central and east central Nevada.

By Thursday night upper level flow becomes a bit more meridional
over the western CONUS as ridging builds into the region from the
south. Initial westerly flow in the axis of the ridge will shift
more southwesterly by the weekend as the ridge pushes east and an
upper level shortwave trough moving onshore by Sunday morning sets
up an active end to the forecast period. The low pressure system
associated with the trough will advect some moisture into the
region on Sunday. While PW values are not impressive (0.55-0.7
inches) over central and east central Nevada, combined with CAPE
values in the 200-250 J/kg range they are enough to increase
chances of a mix of wet and dry convection over the area early
Sunday afternoon. In the warm sector of the encroaching low
pressure system Nevada could see measurable rainfall for the first
time in several weeks. Chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity will transition to eastern Nevada by Sunday evening. The
associated boundary with this system pushes through the state
Sunday night into Monday bringing a cooler start to the next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals through Monday morning
under fair weather skies. No shower or thunderstorm activity is
expected. Wind gusts in the 20-25 knot range at all terminals
Sunday afternoon which slightly stronger gusts around 30 knots
possible at the KELY terminal. Winds should diminish later this
evening after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Broad upper-level ridging continues to shift
eastward as a shortwave trough moves eastward over the Pacific
Northwest. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper low continues to dissipate
just to our south, keeping unseasonably warm temperatures in place.
A jet streak moving overhead in concert with a weak cold front
sagging southward into central Nevada tonight into Monday will
increase wind gusts from the southwest across central and eastern
Nevada. This combined with low afternoon RH values from 10 to 15%
will result in Elevated Fire Weather conditions for fire zones 425,
438, 469, and 470. Winds shift more to the north, especially north
of I-80 late this evening with a slight increase in moisture and RH
values. Limited moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms at bay
with this front, with dry conditions expected through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

94/99/99/84