025
FXUS65 KLKN 100727
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1227 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures both this afternoon and Friday afternoon will be
around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. A cooling
trend is expected this weekend. Be that as it may, maximum
temperatures this weekend into early next week will remain above
seasonal values. Dry weather will persist across Northern and
Central Nevada through at least Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night
A ridge of high pressure will be centered over the Desert
Southwest today and tonight. An Eastern Pacific upper-level area
of low pressure will approach the west coast of the United States
Friday. This cyclone aloft will make landfall over Northern
California or Southern Oregon Friday night. South to southwest
wind gusts near 25 mph are expected in Nye and White Pine Counties
each afternoon and evening today and Friday. High temperatures
both this afternoon and Friday afternoon will be about ten degrees
above seasonal values. Here are probabilities of maximum
temperatures of 80 degrees or higher for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada on Thursday, October 10th, 2024:

Battle Mountain - 98%
Elko - 95%
Tonopah - 90%
Wells - 80%
Winnemucca - 70%
West Wendover - 70%
Spring Creek - 60%

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday
Slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of a weak cold front
Friday night are expected Saturday but temperatures will continue
to be above normal with a broad southwest flow aloft ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs in the 70s with lows mainly in the
middle to upper 30s. Increased cloud cover is expected Saturday
and Saturday night as the trough moves through but limited
atmospheric moisture will inhibit rain chances to less than 15%
across northern Nevada.

Temperatures will hold steady in the 70s for highs and 30s and
lower 40s for lows through Tuesday with a benign weather pattern
in place. Light winds are expected as well with 90th percentile
winds, or the high end guidance scenario, of 10 mph or less each
afternoon with even lighter drainage winds overnight.

Ensemble guidance is fairly consistent with bringing a more
significant trough with additional moisture to the area sometime
Wednesday. Cooler temperatures, or at least around or just below
normal, are expected by Thursday with highs potentially in the 50s
and 60s but ensemble spread is still quite high with the 25th and
75th percentile high temperature range of lower 60s to lower 70s.
Chances of a meaningful rainfall of one tenth of an inch or more
are around 33% across northern Nevada for the Wednesday through
Thursday timeframe but changes in forecast track of the low
could bring similar rainfall to central Nevada as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals tonight and through
Thursday evening. No shower or thunderstorm activity is
anticipated at any terminal through tomorrow night. Thursday
afternoon winds will be lighter for northern Nevada terminals
KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Central and eastern Nevada will experience
stronger winds with gusts in the 25-30KT range for KTPH and KELY.
Stronger gusts will subside after sunset Thursday evening though
KELY will continue to see sustained winds out of the south at
9-11KTs through Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Nye and White
Pine Counties each afternoon and evening today and Friday due to
south to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative
humidity values as low as 9 percent. Maximum temperatures both
this afternoon and Friday afternoon will be around ten degrees
above normal for this time of year. A cooling trend is anticipated
this weekend. Be that as it may, high temperatures this weekend
into early next week will remain above seasonal values. Dry
weather will persist through at least Tuesday. There is a 33%
chance of meaningful precipitation in Northern Nevada Wednesday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

87/93/99/87