844
FXUS65 KLKN 012140
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
240 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 120 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

* Heat Advisory for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka
  County, Northern Lander County, and eastern Elko county today

* Red Flag Warning for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander
  County, and Southern Eureka County today

* A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening
  today through Friday with isolated dry lighting possible

* Friday afternoon and evening potential for critical fire weather
  conditions for central and eastern sections of the forecast area.
  &&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 120 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Currently northern and central Nevada are positioned between a
high pressure ridge with it`s axis centered over Utah and
extending down into New Mexico with a weak closed low positioned
along the central Cal coast. The impacts of this pattern on the
region are heat advisory level conditions over portions of
northern Lander & Eureka County and southwestern & eastern Elko
Counties through 9pm this evening. Also portions of Nye, southern
Lander & Eureka and White Pine counties are receiving warm to hot,
dry, and windy conditions with minimum RH values from 5-10%
causing Red Flag Warning conditions over a portion of the area
through 8pm this evening. Other impacts this evening will be over
northern and central Nevada will be over eastern portions of Elko
and White Pine counties with the potential for thunderstorm
outflow wind gusts from 40-55 mph.


Wednesday & Thursday...Ensembles show that the low mentioned
above is forecasted to moved to a more central Cal position on
Wednesday and then weaken and fill by Thursday with the upper
level ridge axis shifting eastward into the central plains states.
Impacts of this weather pattern on northern and central Nevada
will be weaker pressure gradients thus less wind on Wednesday and
Thursday with diminished fire weather concerns. The other impacts
to mention and highlight Wednesday and Thursday will be a
northward push of better moisture and a forecasted increase of
isolated to scattered (10-30%)showers and thunderstorms with the
potential of isolated strong wind gusts in and around the
convective activity.

Friday...A second and a bit strong low pressure trough is
forecast by the ensemble prediction systems to move across
northern and central Nevada. Current guidance indicates that the
stronger winds could be a bit more widespread, however the main
critical fire weather focus areas appears to be over portions of
southern Lander & Eureka, portions of Nye and White Pine counties.
There is a definite higher probability area for dry and windy
conditions mentioned over the afore mentioned areas above. Another
impact will be potential for isolate to scattered thunderstorms
10-30% over the area. There is enough variability in the ensemble
forecast suggesting that the drier air off the Sierra Nevada`s
may push well enough into central and northern nevada which in
turn could limit afternoon thunderstorm chances to mainly far
eastern Elko and White Pine Counties.


Saturday into Tuesday...Some ensemble members suggest a weak
trough to linger off the Cal coast with the subtropical high
pressure ridge at 500 mb building back toward the four corners
area. The ensemble models also are suggestive of a dry and warm
pattern through the period with no discernible windy conditions
each day.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence Discussion:There is high confidence that the heat and
critical fire weather conditions forecast this evening will
continue up through their expirations times. Moderate confidence
that isolated thunderstorm are forecast to continue this evening.

There is a moderate to high confidence of a continuation of
isolate to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as
better moisture moves northward around the weak low over Cal.

There is moderate confidence for near critical fire weather
conditions over southern and eastern sections of our forecast area
and low confidence of near critical fire weather conditions over
portions of Humboldt, and western Elko Counties. There is also low
confidence on Friday for isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) over
western portions of Humboldt, Lander & Eureka counties and low to
moderate confidence for afternoon and evening thunderstorms over
eastern Elko and White Pine counties.


Deviation Discussion: The only deviation made to the forecast was
to add isolated dry thunderstorms over eastern Nevada for this
evening.
&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated high based thunderstorms are forecasted for
KWMC, KEKO, KENV, and KELY Tuesday afternoon. Winds may become
gusty and erratic in and around thunderstorms that do occur. Winds
out of the south-southwest Tuesday afternoon will gust
considerably at KTPH and KELY where gusts will range 35-40KTs
until after sunset Tuesday evening. Gusts are also expected at
KWMC, KBAM, KENV, and KEKO through Tuesday evening though gusts
are only expected to reach 22-25KTs. Winds and thunderstorm
activity increases mid morning on Wednesday for all terminals.
Winds will increase in speed to 22-25KTs and thunderstorm coverage
Wednesday afternoon with be more scattered.

AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds gusts of 35-40 mph combined with critical
fuels and relative humidity values of 5-14% have prompted a Red
Flag Warning Tuesday afternoon for zones 426/427 until 8PM PDT
this evening. All other zones will see elevated fire weather
conditions due to strong winds and low RH through Tuesday evening.
Some monsoonal moisture leaching far enough west into eastern NV
is creating high based dry thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening mainly over zones 425/469/470. Dry thunderstorm activity
will gradually subside through the evening. Wednesday brings more
scattered thunderstorm activity starting in the morning over zones
425/426/427 before spreading to all fire zones by Wednesday
afternoon. Diurnal breezes continue Wednesday afternoon for all
zones though to a lesser degree of what has been observed Tuesday
with sustained winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph until after
sunset Wednesday evening.
&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Northern Lander and
Eureka, southwest & Eastern Elko counties.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for portions of
southern Lander & Eureka, portions of Nye counties.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99