569
FXUS65 KLKN 191025
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
325 AM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today as high
pressure builds across the Great Basin. A weak disturbance will
bring a chance of precipitation to northeastern Nevada on Sunday.
Gradually warmer temperatures and quiet weather are anticipated
through the beginning of next week. An active weather pattern is
expected to return late next week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night.

Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies as a ridge of
high pressure builds across the Great Basin and a trough of low
pressure moves into the Desert Southwest. At the same time, an
upper level wave and associated cold front moving southward from
the Pacific Northwest will lead to increasing cloud cover across
the region this afternoon. Otherwise, above normal temperatures
are expected with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and
overnight lows in the 30s.

By Sunday morning, a shortwave embedded within the southern
extent of a Pacific Northwest trough will bring a 40-60% chance of
light valley rain and mountain snow to northeastern Nevada. Storm
total QPF remains light, generally around 0.10 inches. Elsewhere,
dry conditions are expected under zonal flow aloft, with high
temperatures across northern and central Nevada running about 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Southwest to west
winds of 10 to 15 mph will lead breezy conditions, with gusts up
to 25 mph. Any lingering showers will taper off Sunday night,
giving away to mostly clear skies and overnight lows ranging from
the 30s to 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday

Storm tracks over the western CONUS next week will keep meaningful
weather just out of reach for the area for most of next week.
Monday morning an upper level trough to the northeast over the
northern Rockies will add to some morning cloud cover but lack of
moisture will keep associated precipitation well to the north of
Nevada. Upper level dynamics look more summer like with both jets
retreating to the south and north of the region respectively.
This puts the region under zonal flow and persistent conditions
through mid week with gradually warming temperatures. Afternoon
highs through the week will start in the 50s and 60s on Monday and
warm a few degrees each day topping out near 70 by Friday
afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave emerges to the west riding the flow of a
large upper level trough strengthening off the Canadian coast to
the northwest. The wave will drag across the state Thursday
afternoon and initiate convection Thursday afternoon and evening
over north-central and northeastern NV. CAPE values of 80-120 J/kg
and LI values near and just below 0 are sufficient for convective
growth but with PW values struggling to 0.55 inches this looks to
be a dry thunderstorm scenario. A few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch are possible in higher elevations but it will be a virga
showcase for valley floors Thursday as the wave propagates through
the region.

Friday sees an uptick in both temperatures and wind speeds as the
gradient of the trough to the northwest begins to encroach upon
the state by Friday afternoon. A sharp moisture gradient sets up
to the northwest by Saturday morning hinting at a return to active
weather next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at
least the next 24 hours. Winds will remain below 10 knots at
KEKO, KWMC, and KBAM. Northwest to north winds near 10 knots are
expected at KELY and KTPH.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

$$

90/99/87