134
FXUS65 KLKN 120741
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1241 AM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southwest wind gusts are expected in Central Nevada and
parts of Northern Nevada today. The next storm system will impact
Northern and Central Nevada tonight through Wednesday afternoon,
resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. The
majority of this precipitation will fall Tuesday. Much cooler
temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night
An upper-level area of low pressure will move eastward across
Oregon today. Strong southwest wind gusts are anticipated in
Central Nevada and parts of Northern Nevada from 8 AM PDT this
morning until 10 PM PDT this evening. A Wind Advisory is in
effect. Blowing dust will reduce visibilities at times. Travel
will be difficult, particularly for high profile vehicles. Here
are probabilities of maximum wind gusts greater than 45 mph for
select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Monday, May
12th, 2025:

Ely - 98%
Eureka - 95%
West Wendover - 90%
Austin - 80%
Elko - 65%
Spring Creek - 60%
Winnemucca - 60%
Wells - 55%
Carlin - 45%
Jackpot -30%

There may be enough atmospheric instablity and moisture in place
to support thunderstorm development in Western Humboldt County
this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms
could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be
dangerous cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts near 45 mph.
High temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon
will be seven to nine degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon.

The aforementioned cyclone aloft will move eastward across
Northern Nevada tonight through Tuesday night, resulting in
periods of valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will
fluctuate between 6,000 feet and 6,500 feet. The majority of this
precipitation will fall Tuesday. Here are probabilities of one
tenth of an inch of rain or more for select locations in Northern
and Central Nevada from 5 AM PDT Tuesday, May 13th, 2025 until 5
AM PDT Wednesday, May 14th, 2025:

Owyhee - 80%
Wells - 60%
Battle Mountain - 52%
Jackpot - 49%
Elko - 46%
Carlin - 40%
West Wendover - 40%
Winnemucca - 36%
Ely - 35%
McDermitt - 34%

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday
Wednesday sees the upper level trough exiting the region as it
will be lifting WNW across Wyoming and into the northern plains.
However for Wednesday a small short wave riding the flow on the
back side of the trough will provide enough lift for a few
additional isolated to scattered showers for the northeastern
third of Nevada. The good news is this activity will wrap up
quickly after sunset, and any amount that do fall will be very
light at about a trace to 0.03 of additional rainfall for those
who do see rain. High pressure well of to the west will try and
build into the California for Thursday and Friday. While this ride
will keep conditions quiet for those two days, is only other
influence on NV will be to re-orient the upper flow from the NW on
Thursday to more westerly Friday, as a new upper trough digs
south out of the gulf of Alaska. This new trough will begin its
approach toward the Silver State Saturday morning with increasing
clouds and a few isolated showers. By the evening time
precipitation chances increase area wide as rain and thunderstorms
develop across northern Nevada. By Sunday this trough will evolve
into a closed low with models disagreeing on positioning of the
low with the GFS favoring Idaho, and the EC favoring NV and Utah.
Either way, high chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue Sunday, before waning and ending Monday afternoon as a
shortwave ridge builds in behind the now broad trough and upper
low over Wyoming, Temperatures for the most part will be rather
consistent for the week as the upper flow will be out of the NW to
WNW. Highs will range from the low 50s to low 60s Wednesday, to
the upper 50s to upper 60s by next Monday. Lows will follow a
similar track starting in the low 30s to low 40s Wednesday night
to the upper 30s to upper 40s by Monday morning. Winds will be
generally westerly to WNW and breezy with speeds of 10 MPH to 20
MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
Skies may remain hazy in some locations this morning as
particulates from Sunday`s blowing dust remain suspended. Winds
increase this afternoon with peak gusts at area terminals ranging
from 25 to 40 knots, strongest at KELY. Blowing dust will be a
concern again this afternoon. Increasing clouds tonight with
showers developing Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southwest wind gusts are anticipated in Central Nevada and
parts of Northern Nevada today. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible in Western Humboldt County this afternoon into this
evening. A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada
tonight through Wednesday afternoon, resulting in periods of
valley rain and mountain snow. Most of this precipitation will
fall Tuesday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible throughout
Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM PDT today Northeastern Nye...
Northwestern Nye...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in
Elko...South Central Elko...Southern Lander and Southern
Eureka...White Pine.

&&

$$

87/98/96/87