465
FXUS65 KLKN 262108
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Deep upper low brings active weather to the forecast
area thru Tuesday with accumulating precipitaton and isolated
thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon for the eastern half of
the forecast area. Conditions remain unsettled thru the end of the
week with numerical guidance suggesting a stronger system to begin
moving into the region in the Friday time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night

Deep upper low and attendant surface cold front continue to move
into Nevada from the west-southwest tonight. Precipitation
continues to spread into the forecast area with generally valley
rain and mountain snow. However, snow levels look to lower to
between 5000 and 5500 feet by sunrise Sunday across central Nevada
as the low pressure center moves directly over the region. Snow
levels will be slightly higher across northern Nevada and
generally reside between 5500 and 6500 feet, with 6500ft expected
across Humboldt County and along the Idaho border in northern Elko
County. This will allow for a period of valley snow early Sunday
morning before snow levels diurnally rise again during the day,
particularly across central Nevada. Snow levels are expected to
reside between 7000 and 7500 feet across the forecast area by
Sunday afternoon. Anticipating convective showers tomorrow
afternoon as well given the relatively unstable and cool air mass
overhead. Graupel can be expected under any such showers and
isolated, low top thunderstorms are also forecast, primarily
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Though thunderstorm
coverage will likely be around 15% or less. Storm total
precipitation between tonight and tomorrow night will range
between 0.25 inches and 0.75 inches for most of the valleys,
though some locales that maintain a stronger or more persistent
shower likely near the one inch mark. The high elevations will see
an additional one to two inches of liquid that will come in the
form of snow. Valley snow will mainly be situated across central
Nevada given the lower snow levels as noted, and accumulations
will be less than an inch. Pass routes and summits along US-50 and
elsewhere in central Nevada will observe between 2 and 4 inches.
Pequop Summit along I-80 stands to also see 2 to 4 inches of snow.
That said, given the time of year and warmer soil temperatures,
it will be difficult for snow to stick to the roads. Main concern
will be slush ups and snow accumulation that will be rate driven
under periods of heavier snowfall. The high terrain will see new
snow accumulations of several inches to a foot or more.

Gusty winds across central Nevada ease thru this evening,
becoming generally light. Westerly breezes Sunday across the Great
Basin with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Low temperatures tonight range
from the mid 30s in northern Nevada to the mid 20s in central
Nevada. Much cooler daytime high temperatures Sunday and readings
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lows recover some Sunday night
and observations will be mostly in the low to upper 30s. Though
the typical colder valleys across central Nevada can expect
another night of readings in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

The low pressure trough will move east out of Nevada on Monday
afternoon, and precipitation will stop by then. Warm and dry
conditions are forecast for Tuesday as high pressure moves in.
Highs will warm to the upper 60s and lower 70s. On Wednesday, a
shortwave trough will bring light valley rain and mountain snow to
northern Nevada, but accumulations and impacts from winter
weather will be minimal. Instability due to daytime heating,
combined with lift from frontogenesis in central and northeast
Nevada as the trough pushes southeast, will result in a slight
risk of thunderstorms in both regions.

The boundary looks like it will remain in place on Thursday
afternoon. Although the shortwave will weaken by then, another
low may develop off the California coast, move east onshore, and
interact with the boundary, resulting in instability and a slight
chance of thunderstorms again. On Friday, model runs are
suggesting a large Pacific trough will move into Nevada and bring
active weather through the weekend. Instability ahead of the
trough may increase the risk of thunderstorms in northern and
central Nevada on Friday, while cooler temperatures are expected
on Saturday as the axis of the trough moves directly over NV.

&&

.AVIATION...Active weather for the remainder of the afternoon and
thru tomorrow. VCSH present at all terminals by this evening with
activity beginning at KWMC and KBAM around 21Z and 22Z
respectively. Low probability for TS acknowledged at KWMC and have
opted to include VCTS in the TAF for WMC thru approx. 05Z this
evening. Even lower probability for TS at KBAM and not enough
confidence to include such in the TAF. Gusty winds at central
Nevada terminals KTPH and KELY will ease this evening as well.
Cloud cover continues to increase overnight with GIGs concurrently
lowering. Widespread MVFR conditions are anticipated due to low
CIGs and reduced VIS thanks to either -RA or -SN forecast to be
present at all terminals beginning late tonight or tomorrow
morning depending on location. Mountain obscuration will also be a
concern given low CIGs. Best chance for -SN will be at KTPH and
KELY based on the position of the upper low. Periods of IFR are
also expected under more moderate precipitation. Additional low TS
probabilities at all terminals during the day Sunday aside from
KTPH. Rain and snow look to persist into Sunday night. Breezes
present across the region Sunday though gusts will not be as
strong across central Nevada as today.

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/89/92