433
FXUS65 KLKN 092116
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
216 PM PDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and milder conditions with a few high passing
clouds are expected through Tuesday as ridging remains in place
across the Great Basin. Increasing cloud cover, precipitation and
gusty winds return to the area Wednesday as the next weather
system impacts the region. A strong cold front will bring falling
snow levels and impactful accumulating snow to valleys Thursday
with lingering snow showers across northern Nevada Friday. Cold
temperatures in the 30s and 40s for highs along with lows in the
teens and 20s are expected for Friday through the weekend as
an active weather pattern continues across much of northern
Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.

A ridge of high pressure will keep dry conditions over the region
through early this week. Temperatures will rise into the 50s in
most valleys with 20s for lows through Tuesday morning. Light
valley drainage winds tonight will be replaced by a weak south-
southwest flow during the day on Monday with most valleys seeing a
10% or less chance of wind speeds exceeding 10 mph except across
central Nevada where sustained winds of 10-15 mph are more likely.
Otherwise, high level cloud cover is expected across western and
northern portions of the state through Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

The brief respite from active weather comes to an end after
Tuesday. Ridging over the SW CONUS begins to break down Tuesday
as a low pressure system offshore of SoCal Tuesday pushes eastward
to the south of the area. This will effectively force the ridge
away from the area allowing for a well amplified upper level
trough to move ashore Tuesday night.

High temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday will continue on
Wednesday under southwest flow in the downstream portion of the
encroaching trough. 700-mb model guidance on winds has 50-55KT
southwest flow over central NV Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday AM when the associated frontal boundary drags through the
state. Under a tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday ahead of
the trough wind gusts in central and east-central NV will change
in the 45-55 mph range; certainly advisory criteria for strong
winds. Moisture availability ramps up from west to east on
Wednesday as PW values climb into the 0.3-0.4 inch range. While
the boundary will be the best forcing mechanism with this system
shower activity mainly in the form of rainfall is expected
Wednesday evening to the tune of 0.05-0.15 inches over central NV
and 0.1-0.2 inches over northern NV before Thursday AM. As the
front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning snow
levels will tumble from near 7000 feet to valley floors from west
to east changing over precipitation quickly to snowfall. Current
ECMWF and GFS guidance are forecasting 6-8 inches of snow over
central NV with a lesser amount of 2-4 for northern NV valleys on
Thursday. Higher elevations and mountain peaks across the region
will see 10-20 inches possible with this quick moving system. The
heaviest snowfall will occur along and just behind frontal passage
on Thursday.

Behind the front temperatures fall back into the 20s and 30s for
highs Thursday and Friday while lows will tumble into the teens
Thursday and Friday night under northwesterly flow. Flow aloft
will become more zonal Friday into Saturday as the axis of a large
long wave trough over the NW CONUS drapes across the Great Basin.
This will create an expressway of sorts for a series of shortwaves
that will begin to impact the area over the weekend and into next
week. Under colder conditions another round of snowfall is
expected to impact mainly northern NV Saturday. The focus shifts
to central NV on Sunday where higher amounts of snow are currently
anticipated. Before the region can catch its breathe another
shortwave sets up just to the northwest of the state Sunday night
into Monday as an active month of March continues.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all TAF sites are expected to
continue through Monday. Occasional high clouds will filter into
portions of western and northern Nevada through Monday but
ceilings will remain above FL150. South winds of around 10 knots
are expected at KELY through Monday with some gusts from the south
expected at KTPH through 01Z before becoming north later this
evening.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to a communications issue with the
ASOS.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/99/93