036
FXUS65 KLKN 071015
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
215 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with temperatures trending warmer through the
weekend. Valley rain and mountain snow is expected over portions
of northern NV early on Monday, with precipitation reaching all of
northern and central NV by Monday evening. Snow levels lower to
most valley floors Monday night into Tuesday. In general valleys
will see a trace to a half inch of new snow by Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Cool and dry northerly
flow aloft persists across northern and central NV today, although
temperatures are beginning to moderate. Lows early this morning
will be in the teens to single digits which is around 10 degrees
below normal. An upper level low currently centered over the four
corners region will continue to weaken and eventually exit
eastward as high pressure approaches NV from the west. As a
result, the northerly flow over NV will weaken with highs this
afternoon trending warmer by 5-7 degrees, with 40s to low 50s for
most valley locations. Winds this afternoon will be light across
northern NV, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph across central NV. The
flow over NV continues to weaken Friday with a transition from a
northerly to a southwesterly direction, which will help nudge high
temperatures up to within a couple degrees of normal Friday
afternoon, with 50s across the region. Winds will be light and
variable on Friday, with continued dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday

An upper level low over the great plains combined with a trough
off the Pacific coast will bring southerly flow and warmer air to
the area on Saturday, leading to highs at or slightly above
normal. Models indicate southerly or zonal flow continuing through
Sunday, allowing temperatures to remain seasonal before that
Pacific trough moves onshore and begins impacting Nevada.

Trough impacts begin on Monday with gusty winds across the area
(20-25 mph) beginning around noon and persisting until around
midnight. Additionally, precipitation increase through the day,
beginning in Humboldt county before sunrise and expanding south
and east to cover almost the entire area by mid afternoon.
Precipitation looks to be mainly rain while the sun is up, with
snow levels in the 7-8 thousand feet range before transitioning to
mainly snow overnight as snow levels will drop below 5000 feet in
the north and around 5500 feet in the south. Precipitation begins
to recede after sunrise on Tuesday as the trough shifts to our
east, although some showers look to linger in the north until
Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler while the
trough is overhead Tuesday, with most areas only reaching the 30s
or 40s for daytime high temperatures. Overnight lows Tuesday night
will also be significantly colder, with air temperatures in the
teens and apparent temperatures dropping to single digits in
places. Model accumulation guidance has been decreasing the past
few forecasts, but confidence is still moderate for widespread
accumulations of less than an inch of snow and significantly
higher accumulations in the Ruby Mountains and Jarbidge Range,
along with widespread qpf totals up to a quarter inch while those
same mountains could see up to three quarters of an inch.

Long term models indicate a shift to more zonal flow for
Wednesday, allowing temperatures to begin to warm again, although
current guidance shows temperatures still below seasonal.
Wednesday also looks generally dry, although models show the
potential for a few scattered showers still north of I-80.
Thursday also looks warmer at this time but models are beginning
to indicate another trough just outside of this period. Forecast
confidence is currently very low but there are trends suggesting
another weather maker at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hour period, with wind gusts up to 20-25 kts for the central
terminals KELY and KTPH, light winds everywhere else.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/94/92