373
FXUS65 KLKN 142244
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather and snow impact the forecast area
beginning tonight, persisting into Saturday morning. The majority
of snow will fall Friday, creating minor travel impacts mainly
over the passes and summits. Next bout of active weather expected
Monday with warming temperatures and quiet weather by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night

Upper long wave trof positioned along the coast this evening
progresses eastward, bringing a surface cold front thru the
forecast region from the west-northwest beginning tonight.
Favorable upper level dynamics will continue to amplify the trof
over the intermountain west Friday. Sensible weather wise, this
will bring snow and breezes into northern and central Nevada
beginning tonight. Activity moves in from the west-northwest with
latest numerical guidance indicating slightly greater snowfall
amounts than previous, likely a product of enhanced dynamics in
conjunction with the deepening upper trof and increased residence
time of an active frontal boundary over Nevada, as PWATs remain
relatively unchanged from previous. Snow totals look to be
greatest over the Jarbidge Wilderness, Ruby Mountains/E. Humboldt
Range, and the Toiyabe Range. Totals of 6 to 10+ inches are
currently forecast. Valleys across the region will generally see
around an inch or less. Pass routes/summits and higher valleys
beginning around 5500/6000 feet and higher can expect 1 to 6
inches depending on locale. Breezes gusting 20 to 30 mph are also
expected and will likely cause instances of blowing snow across
the higher elevations and some passes where snow totals look to be
greatest. Activity begins to dissipate Friday night from west-
northwest to east as the frontal system continues to progress.
That said, light snow will continue to linger, particularly over
the high terrain, by sunrise Saturday.

Low temperatures tonight look to be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Daytime highs Friday will be in the low 30s to low 40s with
overnight lows several degrees cooler than the previous night as a
cold post frontal air mass settles over the region. Lows will be
mostly in the teens with a few readings in the single digits
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday

Saturday starts cold, with early morning temperatures in the teens
and warming into the 30s during the day. A few flurries linger but
no new accumulation is expected. Sunday will be slightly warmer,
with daytime highs mainly in the 30s with a few areas reaching 40.
Sunday will also be quiet, but another approaching trough and
cold front shake that up early Monday morning as the front kicks
off new showers across the forecast area. Precipitation chances
last until late evening before clearing out again. Snow levels
look to remain below the valley floors, but current forecasts
indicate a lack of major moisture availability leading to
widespread but minimal snow accumulations, with up to half an inch
currently forecast for the valleys and 1-2 inches for higher
elevations.

Tuesday will be cold but dry, with daytime highs only reaching the
30s. Current cluster analysis indicates upper level ridging
beginning to build on Tuesday, but its effects dont seem to reach
the forecast area until Wednesday, when daytime temperatures reach
to the 30s and low 40s. Thursday looks even warmer, with highs in
the 40s and low 50s. Additionally, this ridging will keep things
dry until the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals thru
tonight with scattered to overcast cloud cover gradually lowering
as a cold front moves in from the west-northwest. Breezes
accompany the front with gusts generally around 20 to 25 KTS
beginning Friday morning. -SN will also move into the forecast
area from the west-northwest Friday morning with impacts expected
to begin at KWMC around 12Z, reaching KEKO around 17Z, and KELY
around 18Z or 19Z. Periods of MVFR are likely due to either low
CIGs, reduced VIS under periods of heavier snow, or a combination
of both. Brief IFR conditions are possible as well. Weather begins
to dissipate from the west-northwest Friday evening and thru
Friday night as the front continues its eastward progression.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/94/92