892
FXUS65 KLKN 280801
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1201 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures this afternoon and Saturday afternoon will be
twelve to fourteen degrees above seasonal values. The next storm
system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon
through Monday night, resulting in periods of precipitation. Most
of this precipitation will fall Sunday evening. Rain will change
to snow on the valley floor Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over
Northern Nevada today. This anticyclone aloft will open up into a
ridge of high pressure as it moves eastward into Utah tonight. A
low pressure system will progress eastward across Southern
California Saturday, before entering the Desert Southwest Saturday
night. High temperatures this afternoon will be twelve to
fourteen degrees above normal for this time of year. Near record
warmth is expected in Ely and Eureka this afternoon. The current
record for warmest temperature measured in Ely on February 28th is
67 degrees, set in 1986. The current record for warmest
temperature measured in Eureka on February 28th is 65 degrees, set
in 1980. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 60
degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central
Nevada on Friday, February 28th, 2025:

Ely - 100%
Eureka - 100%
Lund - 100%
Tonopah - 96%
Winnemucca - 95%
Battle Mountain - 90%
Austin - 90%
Elko - 85%
Carlin - 80%
Spring Creek - 45%

Maximum temperatures Saturday afternoon will be twelve to
fourteen degrees above seasonal values. Near record warmth is
expected in Eureka Saturday afternoon. The current record for
warmest temperature measured in Eureka on March 1st is 63 degrees,
initially established in 2016 and last recorded in 2022. Here are
probabilities of maximum temperatures of 60 degrees or higher for
select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Saturday,
March 1st, 2025:

Ely - 100%
Eureka - 100%
Lund - 98%
Elko - 97%
Winnemucca - 97%
Battle Mountain - 97%
Tonopah - 95%
Carlin - 90%
Austin - 80%
Spring Creek - 50%

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday
An appreciable low pressure system will bring big weather changes
to the Great Basin region Sunday into Tuesday morning. Ensemble
guidance is indicating a more southern trajectory for the low
pressure system which would place a deformation zone and generally
enhanced band of precipitation over central and
northern/northeastern Nevada. An expanding area of valley rain and
snow will progress east through the day. Colder air infiltrating
the state Sunday night into MOnday morning will drop snow levels
to most valley floors by sunrise Monday morning of which impacts
from snow will be most felt as temperatures drop to to below
freezing across much of central and northeastern Nevada. Humboldt
county valleys and into the Battle Mountain area could escape much
of the snow impacts as temperatures remain at or slightly above
freezing Sunday night. Nonetheless, up to an inch of snow is
expected by Monday morning in some higher valleys with passes and
higher roadways seeing up 3 to 5 inches of snow. Gusty winds from
the south ahead of the cold front are expected across central
Nevada with northwest winds by Monday as the trough pushes through
the region.

Precipitation intensity will decrease from Monday through Tuesday
under northwest flow on the backside of the upper-low. Snow
accumulation during the day on Monday will be concentrated in the
Elko county mountains with little in valleys as temperatures rise
into the 40s.

A generally active weather pattern is expected to continue based
on ensemble guidance and cluster analysis in the 6-10 day time
frame. However, quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the timing of
weather systems mid to late next week. The long wave pattern does
suggest temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour period.
KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

87/93/97