510
FXUS65 KLKN 061013
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
313 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing clouds this afternoon across mainly central
NV, with continued dry conditions across the entire region. Light
winds and well above normal temperatures will also persist today
and into Monday. Increasing clouds across northern and central NV
on Monday, with a 15% chance of light rain across central NV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Persistent high pressure
across the desert SW will keep temperatures across NV well above
normal through Monday. Shortwave energy approaching the central
and southern CA coastlines will result in weak instability over
central NV this afternoon and across the entire CWA Monday
afternoon. At this time not expecting any showers or thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon. Increased mid-level moisture and
instability Monday afternoon will result in a 15% chance of
showers and at 5% chance of thunderstorms to mainly central NV.
Any rainfall Monday afternoon is expected to be less than a few
hundredths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

An upper level short wave over the SW CONUS will traverse across
the Silver State on Tuesday. The system will push a weak cold
front through the region which will increase instability along and
ahead of the boundary producing showers and convection over
central and eventually eastern Nevada. CAPE values in the 50-150
J/kg range coinciding with Lifted Index values around -2 over Nye
and White Pine counties are sufficient enough to initiate
convection over those areas though PW values of around half an
inch suggest more dry convection than anything on Tuesday. QPF
model guidance promotes a few hundredths of an inch of
accumulating rainfall but unless moisture availability increases
with future model runs a meaningful rainfall event isnt
anticipated. Advecting wind patterns in the lower levels are not
favorable for moisture increase. The boundary will do little to
cool the area off as high temperatures in the upper 70s and low
80s will continue through Wednesday

Northwest flow aloft in a post frontal regime will remain in
place through Thursday morning when the gradient of a much
stronger longwave trough will encroach upon the SW CONUS. Thursday
evening the trough will push onshore over the Pacific NW and
create southwesterly flow over Nevada. The pressure gradient is
much tighter in the approaching trough which will create windy
conditions Thursday afternoon and the potential for elevated fire
weather concerns.

This system wastes little time dragging a stronger cold front
across the state knocking temperatures down into the upper 60s and
lower 70s Friday afternoon. Stronger dynamics associated with the
system will remain north of the state. While much better moisture
availability exists within this system especially over Humboldt
and Elko counties on Friday, CAPE is lacking for any sort of
convective activity along and ahead of the cold front. Frontal
forcing will be sufficient enough to produce scattered showers and
QPF probabilities in the 0.05-0.10 inch range for northern
portions of Humboldt and Elko counties. The bigger headline,
however, will be cooler temperatures in the low to mid 60s on
Saturday in the post frontal regime of the late week system.
Sunday high pressure builds over northern California and Nevada
calming winds and allowing daytime highs in the area to rebound
back into the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through Sunday night. A
general west-northwest flow of less than 10 knots is expected from
18Z to about 01Z (around sunset) Sunday with even lighter
drainage/downvalley wind flows Sunday night. A few high clouds
will be present across central Nevada but otherwise mostly clear
skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry today with up valley winds becoming
westerly 7 to 12 mph in most locations this afternoon. Relative
humidity recoveries continue to show improvement in the coming
nights. Becoming mostly cloudy Monday with a 5% chance of
thunderstorms across the mainly the higher terrain of central NV.
High temperatures remain well above normal through the middle of
next week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/99/93/96