843
FXUS65 KLKN 040838
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
138 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 135 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

* Active pattern continues for far northern Nevada Through Monday evening.

* Low 10% to 20% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for
  northern Elko, and northern Humboldt counties for Monday
  afternoon.

* Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep elevated fire
  weather conditions for Nevada, Tuesday through the weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level trough is moving through
the Pacific NW will clip northern Nevada leading to a low 10% to
20% chance of thunderstorms for northern Humboldt and Elko
counties. Mid level moisture associated with the trough will just
be enough to trigger thunderstorm development but low enough to
favor dry thunderstorm modes. Coverage of storms will be low, but
the main hazards will be gusty erratic outflow winds up to 45 MPH,
and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Also for Monday afternoon,
as the upper trough passes to our north, central NV will see a
increase in SW winds for Monday afternoon, and with already low
surface humidity in place, conditions may rise close to, but not
forecast to exceed critical fire weather levels. This trough will
exit the area by early Tuesday morning which will allow storm
chances to come to an end. Overall Models have reach a fair
agreement for the week, showing that the upper ridge will settle
in over the southern Arizona/New Mexico border area. While a
persistent long wave troughing sets up off the Pacific NW just far
enough off shore to keep SW flow aloft but not close enough to
support storm development. This will keep NV in between the two
major players leading to a quiet week weather wise. After
Saturday, model agreement is lost with the model solutions varying
between ridge extension north, northern stream ridge development
offshore that places NV in a col, or another trough digging into
northern Nevada. With all these possibilities after next weekend
confidence is low toward the end of the long term. Temperatures
for the period look to slowly warm through the week as storm
chances dwindle, However, convective cloud build-ups will keep
daytime highs from warming too quickly. Highs look to range from
the upper 80s to upper 90s across Nevada Monday, warming into the
low 90s to low 100s by the weekend. For overnight lows look for
temperatures each night to keep to a similar range, falling into
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate confidence n the development of a low 10% to
20% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across northern
Elko, and Humboldt Counties for Monday afternoon.

There is High confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period.

There is low confidence toward the end of the extended forecast
as models continue to show high uncertainty in the upper level
pattern.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Tuesday for all
terminals. Winds will out of the west to southwest at speeds of
10KT to 20KT with a few gusts up to 30KT possible. There will be a
low 10%to 20% chance for isolated dry thunderstorms Monday
afternoon across northern Nevada. However, any storms that do form
should be well north of I-80 terminals.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue due to breezy winds and
low daytime RH values. Some small, isolated areas in zone 425 may
reach critical status for short periods today, but widespread
critical conditions are not anticipated. Some isolated dry
thunderstorms are also expected to persist near the Oregon/Idaho
border today before finally exiting the forecast for the next few
days.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...94