296
FXUS65 KLKN 072046
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will progress southeastward across Eastern Nevada
this afternoon into this evening. Light snow and strong breezes
associated with this cold front will end this evening. Turning
colder this weekend into early next week. By Tuesday afternoon,
high temperatures will be seven to nine degrees below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night
A cold front will move southeastward across Eastern Nevada this
evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for most of Northern
and Central Nevada until 7 PM PST this evening. Light snow
associated with the aforementioned cold front will end this
evening, although a snow shower or two cannot be ruled out tonight
into Saturday. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central
Nevada Saturday afternoon will be six to eight degrees colder than
this afternoon. Low temperatures across Northern and Central
Nevada Saturday night will be six to eight degrees below normal
for this time of year. Here are probabilities of minimum
temperatures of 15 degrees or lower for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada on Sunday, February 9th, 2025:

Ely - 97%
Battle Mountain - 85%
Spring Creek - 80%
Winnemucca - 80%
Jackpot - 80%
Elko - 75%
Carlin - 75%
Wells - 75%
McGill - 70%
Eureka - 60%

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday
The rest of the weekend is quieter but colder in the axis of a
long wave upper-level trough that continues to push shortwaves
through the Great Basin Sunday through Tuesday. With the
atmosphere overhead being moisture starved until later in the week
said shortwaves will do nothing more than continue to keep
temperatures cold. Therefore, the focus of this discussion will be
on the system impacting the state later in the work week.

Ridging late Tuesday to the west makes upper level flow more
meridional just as the next shortwave with its axis oriented west
to east pushes into the region late Tuesday night. This will
initiate light snow showers over the region, but with little
moisture availability to work with accumulations will range from a
dusting for valleys floors to an inch or two for elevated
locations in central and northeast Nevada. In the upstream of the
trough by Wednesday AM, brisk northerly flow will help
temperatures plummet into the single digits and potentially
negative temperatures by sunrise for northern Nevada.

Wednesday will be a transitional day for the area as winds back
to a more zonal direction as the ridge to the west pushes into the
region. A warm front will lift through the area Wednesday helping
to shift to a more southwesterly flow. Under a tightening
pressure gradient surface winds Wednesday afternoon could be
fairly strong especially in Nye and White Pine counties. This
effectively places the area in the warm sector of a strong
shortwave and surface low pressure system that simultaneously begins
to push into the southwest CONUS late Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon in warmer air will rebound
into the 30s. This will allow for an increase in moisture overhead
as the system advects moist air into the region early Thursday
morning. Model sounding analysis shows a steady increase of PW
values across the region from a few hundredths of an inch at 00z
Thursday to near 0.4 inches by 18z Thursday. Given that the
average PW values for mid February in the area is between 0.2 and
0.25 inches this is more than enough moisture availability to
generate snowfall for the area late next week. Northern based
sounding profiles depict moisture overcoming a surface dry layer
between 15 and 18z Thursday while more central and east central
based profiles show the dry layer losing the battle in the 18 to
21z range Thursday.

While its too early to determine accumulation amounts this system
has potential to be the largest snowfall of the season thus far.
The trend, however, has been for these promising systems to get
squeezed like sponges as time gets closer to their arrival. Model
runs, and specifically moisture availability, should be closely
scrutinized into next week. Current model runs keep precipitation
in the forecast through Friday evening before the wave pushes to
the east and post frontal conditions reside over the area by
Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lingering showers associated with the weather system exiting the
region will create momentary MVFR and IFR conditions for northern
terminals this evening. Gusty winds Friday afternoon for all
terminals with gusts as high as 40KTs will diminish early Friday
evening as the system exits the area. Saturday lighter winds and
quieter conditions are anticipated at all terminals.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon Humboldt.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening Northern Elko...
Northern Lander and Northern Eureka...Northwestern Nye...Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range in Elko...South Central Elko...
Southeastern Elko...Southern Lander and Southern Eureka...
Southwest Elko...White Pine.

&&

$$

87/99/99