Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
824 FXUS65 KLKN 010331 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 831 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A shortwave trough is expected to move into the silver state from the northwest in the early week, bringing in cooler temperatures and increase chances for isolated dry thunderstorms tonight. Northwesterly flow that is bringing in cooler temperatures is expected to last through midweek followed by a high pressure system moving in behind towards southern California, which will bring quieter conditions and warmer temperatures. && .UPDATE...With winds diminishing across east-central NV this evening, have ended the Red Flag Warning that was in effect through 8pm. No changes to the forecast package. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ SYNOPSIS...A shortwave trough is expected to move it`s into the silver state from the northwest in the early week, bringing in cooler temperatures and increase chances for isolated dry thunderstorms tonight. Northwesterly flow that is bringing in cooler temperatures is expected to last through midweek followed by a high pressure system moving in behind towards southern California, which will bring quieter conditions and warmer temperatures. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday A small shortwave cold front situated just to the north of Nevada is creating a northwesterly flow into the silver state which is bringing in cooler temperatures and an increase chance for isolated dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada this evening and will dissipate overnight. Cooler air from the front is expected to drop overnight temperatures into the 40s and 50s. Winds expected to be elevated to 10-15 mph early tonight and dissipate to calmer winds, below 10 mph overnight. Monday, high temperatures expected to reach into the 70s to 80s with northwesterly winds increasing in the afternoon at 15-20 mph, gusts 25 mph. Overnight low expected to drop into the 40s to 50s. LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday. A strengthening ridge in the northeast Pacific off the coast of California will bring persistent, usually cooler, northwesterly flow across the area through late this week. However, rising 500 mb heights will result in slowly increasing temperatures through the later part of the week with valley temperatures rising from the 80s and lower 90s Tuesday to the mid to upper 90s by the weekend. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the day will be common with slightly stronger winds Wednesday as a short wave moves into Utah. Otherwise, hot and dry through the the end of the week with no precipitation foreseen through Saturday. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates increasing uncertainty in overall pattern by early next week but none of the scenarios indicate impactful fire weather or introduction of monsoon moisture into the state. AVIATION....AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through Monday. Gusty winds, with the highest winds of 15 knots and gusts approaching 30 knots at KELY from the southwest, will abate tonight. A weak upper-level disturbance is bringing building cumulus clouds to KWMC, KBAM and KEKO but thunderstorm probabilities 10% or less along the I-80 corridor with higher probabilities across far northern through the early evening hours. Breezy northwest winds will continue Monday under mostly clear skies, aside from a few passing high clouds. FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions over eastern Nevada due to low RH values in the single digits with winds at 15-20 mph, gusts 25 mph but remain below red flag criteria. Overnight, conditions expected to improve as RH values increase and winds become calmer. Isolated dry thunderstorms expected overnight for northern zones north of the I-80 corridor with winds expected below 20 mph and RH values above 15%. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 96/96