Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
119 FXUS65 KLKN 161143 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 443 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 441 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Light, isolated precipitation will end this morning in the east * Warming trend Friday through Sunday * Much cooler Monday and Tuesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 441 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The winter storm warning has been allowed to expire at 5am. Light snow showers are still occurring over the Ruby Mountains but additional accumulations are not likely. No other changes are being made. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure will move northeastward across the Silver State this afternoon, before entering the Mountain West tonight. Periods of precipitaton are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and tonight. Snow levels will start at around 6,000 feet, before rising to about 7,000 feet this afternoon. Snow will be heavy at times in the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Closer to the valley floor, rain amounts will generally vary from one quarter of an inch to one half of an inch. Here are probabilities of rain amounts of one quarter of an inch or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and tonight: Wells - 79% Lamoille - 76% Spring Creek - 72% Elko - 65% Carlin - 65% Jackpot - 65% Battle Mountain - 54% Owyhee - 53% Eureka - 43% Austin - 40% A trough of low pressure will pass southward across the Silver State Thursday. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon will be around ten degrees below normal for this time of year. A ridge of high pressure will build northward across Southern Nevada Friday through Sunday, resulting in a warming trend. By Sunday afternoon, maximum temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada will be about five degrees above seasonal values. A cold front should move eastward through Northern Nevada Sunday night, leading to much cooler weather. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Monday afternoon will be around ten degrees cooler than Sunday afternoon. Maximum temperatures will only rebound by a couple of degrees Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the Winter Storm Warning for the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. High forecast confidence in periods of precipitation in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and tonight. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Friday through Sunday. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler weather Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION UPDATE... Issued at 421 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Previous discussion remains the same, but continuing AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... An exiting storm system will bring light showery precipitation to portions of eastern Nevada this morning, but accumulations will be light. Look for partial clearing during the afternoon with drier conditions for Friday. A warming trend is expected Friday through Sunday, before much cooler weather returns on Monday and Tuesday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...84