644
FXUS65 KLKN 240731
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1231 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1231 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

* Wetting thunderstorms likely in much of Northern and Central
  Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Wednesday

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and
  Central Nevada today through Wednesday

* Cooling trend today through Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure
will be centered over the Desert Southwest today. A ridge of high
pressure will extend northward across the Great Basin Monday and
Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in much of Northern
and Central each afternoon and evening today through Tuesday. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts as high as 50 mph,
dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. In
addition, there is a marginal risk (5-15%) of excessive rainfall
for most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening
today through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding
of recent burn scars, streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Here
are probabilities of rain amounts of one half of an inch or more
from today through Tuesday afternoon for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada:

Ruby Valley - 89%
Austin - 78%
Eureka - 65%
Jarbidge - 64%
Lages Junction - 51%
Great Basin National Park - 48%
Wells - 45%
Wildhorse - 42%

An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will move eastward into
California Wednesday. This should begin to push monsoonal moisture
eastward. Be that as it may, there still is a marginal risk
(5-15%) of excessive rainfall for Eastern Nevada Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening. The aforementioned trough of low
pressure will dissipated over the Silver State Thursday. A ridge
of high pressure will build northward over Eastern Nevada Friday
and Saturday. A cooling trend is expected today through Wednesday.
By Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures will be around five
degrees below normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures
will remain below seasonal values Thursday through Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence
regarding wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Sunday
through Wednesday. High forecast confidence in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday
through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling
trend today through Wednesday. No deviations or changes from the
NBM model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR or lower conditions are expected in KELY and KTPH this
afternoon due to thunderstorm impacts. Thunderstorms are expected
in the vicinity of KEKO, KWMC, KBAM, and KENV this afternoon into
this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoonal moisture will surge northward into much of Northern and
Central Nevada today through Wednesday, resulting in the
likelihood of wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts as
high as 50 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and
small hail. In addition, heavy rainfall may result in minor
flooding of recent burn scars.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87