Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
169 FXUS65 KLKN 042016 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 116 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 * Much cooler temperatures expected through the next few days with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows in the 20s to 30s. * Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s by midweek. * Watching the possibility for another strong trough next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Precipitation has dried up and cooler temperatures have settled in. Highs over the weekend will struggle to reach the 60s and lows will be below freezing across the majority of the forecast area. Temperatures increase for the first half of the week, returning to the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday, as a shortwave ridge passes over Nevada. The forecast gets much less certain after Thursday as models diverge. There is moderate confidence in a strong trough traveling down from the Gulf of Alaska area and impacting the western United States, including our coverage area. Timing is currently showing initial impacts starting between Friday and Sunday, but its going to take a few more days to pin down the precise timing. Another question is how far south the trough will dig, as a deeper trough will bring more intense impacts to Northeastern Nevada than a shallow trough would. The current forecast package reflects the middle ground solution, with the bulk of the impacts beginning Saturday and reflecting a middle-strength trough but this forecast is absolutely expected to change in the next few days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in cool then warming temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. Moderate confidence in another strong trough passage late week, but low confidence in timing and location. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday. Strong upper level storm system departing the region will still affect CIGS/VSBY as cloud deck remains SCT to BKN at 4 to 7kFT along with breezy N winds at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT. Clouds will slowly dissipate, with CIGS rising above 10kFT through the overnight as shortwave ridging builds in over Nevada. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns in the wake of the most recent trough passage will remain reduced even as shortwave ridging bring warmer temperatures and drier conditions through Thursday. Temperatures will start in the mid 50s to mid 60s for highs, with lows reaching the upper 20s to upper 30s Sunday, and slowly climb back into the upper 60s to upper 70s by Thursday, with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Breezy, post frontal northerly winds at 10 to 20MPH with gusts up to 30MPH will continue Saturday afternoon, but winds will weaken as ridging moves in across Nevada. By Monday winds will be light out of the east at 5 to 10MPH with gusts up to 15MPH. Winds shift back to the SW Wednesday and Thursday but remain light at 5 to 15MPH with a few gusts up to 25MPH possible. After Thursday, model agreement degrades leaving to a lower than normal forecast confidence. However there is the possibility of another upper trough approaching from the Pacific bringing a chance for more precipitation Friday into next weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98