Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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540
FXUS65 KLKN 191026
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
226 AM PST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and dry today with winds out of the north.
Temperatures trend colder tonight through Monday night with low
temperatures in the single digits. Temperatures rebound back above
normal levels Tuesday through Thursday with continued dry
conditions. Increasing chances for light snow flurries Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. High pressure is
centered just off the west coast early this morning, with broad
trough energy over the CONUS which is resulting in a cold
northwesterly flow aloft across the intermountain west. The
primary concern through Monday night will be below normal
temperatures, especially across northeastern NV. Early this Sunday
morning many of the valley locations across the CWA are seeing
lows drop into the teens and single digits, which is near or just
a couple degrees below normal. Highs this afternoon are expected
to be around 5 degrees below normal. Confidence in the NBM with
respect to temperatures is on the low side however as the model
blend continues to run a few degrees warmer than actual
temperatures. For the low temperatures this morning, ran a blend
of the NBM and NBM10pct (which is a few degrees colder than the
NBM) though even the NBM10pct was not cold enough in a few
locations when compared to actual temperatures earlier tonight
when the model was run.

Late this evening and into the early overnight hours the ridge
just off the Pacific NW will shift slightly east, which will veer
the flow aloft coming into NV from a northwesterly to a more
northerly direction. Embedded energy in the northerly flow will
clip far northeastern Elko County bringing a 10 to 15 percent
chance of a snow flurry or two between Jarbidge and Jackpot.
Otherwise dry across the CWA through Monday night.

The northerly flow aloft will also bring even colder temperatures
to the region tonight through Monday night. Low temperatures early
Monday morning are progged by the NBM to be in the single digits
over most of the CWA. Highs Monday afternoon are expected to be
around 10 degrees below normal, only reaching into the 20s across
much of Elko, Eureka and White Pine Counties. Lows Monday night
will again be in the single digits.

Will need to see how the NBM does with temperatures this morning,
and potentially drop the low temperatures for both tonight and
Monday night lower than the NBM guidance (and current forecast)
with either a blend of NBM10pct as was done with this mornings
lows, or load just the NBM10pct for the lows across the CWA. At
this time the Apparent Temperatures in a vast majority of
populated locations both tonight and Monday night are expected to
remain above zero degrees, based on the NBM. May need to consider
a Cold Weather Advisory for both Monday and Tuesday mornings
(generally between the hours of 2AM and 8AM when Apparent
Temperatures will be at their coldest and possibly below zero
degrees) if the NBM continues with its warm bias.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday

Dry conditions with quiet weather Tuesday through Thursday as an
upper ridge over the Pacific moves over the western coast of the
U.S. gradually increasing temperatures each day with highs on
Tuesday 30s to 40s, and by Thursday warming into the 40s to 50s.
Overnight lows also gradually warm but stay mainly in the 20s
(teens for northeastern Nevada). Light winds each day.

Friday and Saturday, models are showing an upper level trough
moving south from western Canada into the U.S. by Friday afternoon
and moving closer towards Mexico, however there are discrepancies
with the position of the low with some models showing a more
western extent reaching into southern California, while other
models are showing a more eastern extent towards the four corners.
Probabilities of weather activity over the weekend expected to
increase 20-30% across the region by Saturday, however if the
trough is more east oriented towards the four corners,
probabilities drop to below 10%. High temperatures start warm on
Friday in the 40s to 50s, with the upper trough bringing in
cooler air on Saturday, dropping highs in the 30s to low 40s.
Northerly winds expected to elevate in the afternoons with Friday
winds at 10-15 mph and Saturday winds at 15-20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...Some high clouds (FL100 or above) will move across
northeastern and eastern Nevada through tomorrow with otherwise
mostly clear skies farther west and south across KWMC and KTPH.
Winds will be light through 18Z before increasing from the north-
northwest across the I-80 corridor and central Nevada affecting
all TAF locations. Wind speeds of 10-15 knots at times can be
expected with KPTH higher at 15G25 knots developing around 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday night as
broad northwest flow pattern and dry conditions continue across
the region.

AMD NOT SKED for KTPH due to wind sensor issues.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/97/93