Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
540 FXUS65 KLKN 191026 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 226 AM PST Sun Jan 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cold and dry today with winds out of the north. Temperatures trend colder tonight through Monday night with low temperatures in the single digits. Temperatures rebound back above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday with continued dry conditions. Increasing chances for light snow flurries Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. High pressure is centered just off the west coast early this morning, with broad trough energy over the CONUS which is resulting in a cold northwesterly flow aloft across the intermountain west. The primary concern through Monday night will be below normal temperatures, especially across northeastern NV. Early this Sunday morning many of the valley locations across the CWA are seeing lows drop into the teens and single digits, which is near or just a couple degrees below normal. Highs this afternoon are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal. Confidence in the NBM with respect to temperatures is on the low side however as the model blend continues to run a few degrees warmer than actual temperatures. For the low temperatures this morning, ran a blend of the NBM and NBM10pct (which is a few degrees colder than the NBM) though even the NBM10pct was not cold enough in a few locations when compared to actual temperatures earlier tonight when the model was run. Late this evening and into the early overnight hours the ridge just off the Pacific NW will shift slightly east, which will veer the flow aloft coming into NV from a northwesterly to a more northerly direction. Embedded energy in the northerly flow will clip far northeastern Elko County bringing a 10 to 15 percent chance of a snow flurry or two between Jarbidge and Jackpot. Otherwise dry across the CWA through Monday night. The northerly flow aloft will also bring even colder temperatures to the region tonight through Monday night. Low temperatures early Monday morning are progged by the NBM to be in the single digits over most of the CWA. Highs Monday afternoon are expected to be around 10 degrees below normal, only reaching into the 20s across much of Elko, Eureka and White Pine Counties. Lows Monday night will again be in the single digits. Will need to see how the NBM does with temperatures this morning, and potentially drop the low temperatures for both tonight and Monday night lower than the NBM guidance (and current forecast) with either a blend of NBM10pct as was done with this mornings lows, or load just the NBM10pct for the lows across the CWA. At this time the Apparent Temperatures in a vast majority of populated locations both tonight and Monday night are expected to remain above zero degrees, based on the NBM. May need to consider a Cold Weather Advisory for both Monday and Tuesday mornings (generally between the hours of 2AM and 8AM when Apparent Temperatures will be at their coldest and possibly below zero degrees) if the NBM continues with its warm bias. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday Dry conditions with quiet weather Tuesday through Thursday as an upper ridge over the Pacific moves over the western coast of the U.S. gradually increasing temperatures each day with highs on Tuesday 30s to 40s, and by Thursday warming into the 40s to 50s. Overnight lows also gradually warm but stay mainly in the 20s (teens for northeastern Nevada). Light winds each day. Friday and Saturday, models are showing an upper level trough moving south from western Canada into the U.S. by Friday afternoon and moving closer towards Mexico, however there are discrepancies with the position of the low with some models showing a more western extent reaching into southern California, while other models are showing a more eastern extent towards the four corners. Probabilities of weather activity over the weekend expected to increase 20-30% across the region by Saturday, however if the trough is more east oriented towards the four corners, probabilities drop to below 10%. High temperatures start warm on Friday in the 40s to 50s, with the upper trough bringing in cooler air on Saturday, dropping highs in the 30s to low 40s. Northerly winds expected to elevate in the afternoons with Friday winds at 10-15 mph and Saturday winds at 15-20 mph. && .AVIATION...Some high clouds (FL100 or above) will move across northeastern and eastern Nevada through tomorrow with otherwise mostly clear skies farther west and south across KWMC and KTPH. Winds will be light through 18Z before increasing from the north- northwest across the I-80 corridor and central Nevada affecting all TAF locations. Wind speeds of 10-15 knots at times can be expected with KPTH higher at 15G25 knots developing around 20Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday night as broad northwest flow pattern and dry conditions continue across the region. AMD NOT SKED for KTPH due to wind sensor issues. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/97/93