410
FXUS64 KLIX 022342
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
642 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Quite the windy day across the region with numerous locations
seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph and even a handful at 50 or
higher. as of 20z BTR was the winner with a wind gust of 52 mph.
As for temps it was quite warm with highs in the 80s across the
region and a few topping out just in the upper 80s. As for the
coastal flooding concerns outside of Waveland everywhere else has
behaved and this may have a lot to do with not enough of an
eastward component. Most of the area has winds between 160 and 180
and with only a minimal easterly component we aren`t pushing
enough water west which would get trapped by the LA coast line.

Our pattern has been getting setup for the past 18 hours and will
continue to build with the ridge centered over the Bahamas and the
large L/W trough still becoming established west of the continental
divide and down the PAC coast. Deep southwesterly flow is in placed
all the way from the Baja into the Great Lakes. This will be the
driver of the weather across much of the CONUS with the greatest
impacts across the Mid MS Valley, northern portions of the Lower MS
Valley, and the OH/TN valleys. With that set up DO NOT look for a
quick change to the weather regime across much of the area. A
boundary will drift back and forth with each impulse but it will
basically remain in the general vicinity of central TX northeast
towards OH/IN. With that it will lead to multiple rounds of storms
across the earlier mentioned areas but with the front struggling to
move towards the region we will see light showers or sprinkles at
best until everything finally become more progressive which looks
like mid/late weekend.

So prior to that what are we looking at, rather warm, breezy to
windy conditions, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. It was
windy as we mentioned earlier and winds will begin to slack around
sunset but we will still see winds around 20 mph with gusts of 20-35
mph the next 3 days. The winds will be out of the south to south-
southeast. The winds will be a good bit lighter than today so we do
not anticipate a windy adv for tomorrow or Friday. As for tides we
are still approaching spring tide which is tomorrow with Fridays
high tide almost the same height. Even though there will not be much
of an easterly component we will now be 36 to 48 hours of moderate
to strong onshore flow and that fetch will finally become fully
established. That was the fear yesterday that we may still be a day
away from seeing the big surge however even if we saw a big surge in
the tide tomorrow we still may not be at warning criteria yet but it
may be close. Because of that we did cancel the coastal flood watch
for tonight and replaced it tomorrow with a coastal flood adv for
the entire coast. The watch still remains in place for the same
areas tomorrow night and now through Saturday.

No real change in the temperature forecast as it will be just as
warm tomorrow and maybe even 1-2 degrees warmer in some areas with a
few locations possibly touching 90. The other 2 things to watch is
possible advection fog but we may be getting too warm for that with
lows only falling into the 70s. Still need to keep an eye on coastal
MS and  around the mouth of the MS river where much cooler water is
flowing down the river. Other small thing but really not much of an
issue is the possibility of light rain or sprinkles Friday
afternoon. Not really sure what this is associated with but all
models are indicating light rain across the northern third/half of
the cwa. It appears it could be a weak impulse that becomes detached
form the main flow. No other real sign like a LL or mid lvl jet or
some enhanced area of divergence aloft. Not seeing a theta E ridge
or surge in PWs so we shall see what the models are picking
up on as it may become a little more evident on satellite. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Models are in good agreement with the area being impacted by
thunderstorms Saturday night but at that point they begin to
diverge. The GFS has a more substantial disturbance, is more
progressive and everything swings through here during the
overnight hours. However, the ECMWF has a stronger s/w on the
backside of the L/W trough which holds the the L/W in place longer
and actually causes the front to slow to a crawl across the Lower
MS Valley and technically along our northwestern 3rd of the CWA.
we are outlooked for severe weather by SPC and as mentioned
yesterday by the time we get to Saturday evening we will have had
a full 5 to 6 days of recovery and will be sufficiently primed.
Shear will not be lacking either but the dynamics and kinematic
fields still look to not be in line and timing looks to be the
primary failure mode. If the dynamics and the kinematic field can
line up more and trend a tad south then we could be seeing and
overnight severe risk which is not what we would like. If things
aren`t quite aligned and the best dynamics remain just to our
north and behind the front we are looking at a more broad area
thunderstorms. The other problem though is if things aren`t quite
lined up to bring a more substantial severe threat then the ECMWF
may be onto something and then that will mean that a heavy rain
and possible flash flooding event will become a little more
favorable. With so much moisture and instability in play a slow
moving front parallel to the main flow is not what we want to see
this time of the year. Think something similar to what northeast
AR, southeast MO, west TN, and southern IL will see...it will just
be for one day over our area at least. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs continue this evening and likely remain through
the forecast period. These may very briefly break late afternoon
Thursday, but are expected to return by Thursday evening. Gusty
winds continue, slightly less than earlier at the surface but
continue to be in the 30-35kts range just off the surface. This
keeps the concern for the LLWS in place through the evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Gale Warning for the tidal lakes continues till 00z for wind
gusts over 35 kts. After that SCY takes over for all waters again
through tomorrow. Nothing is really going to change for the next 3
days leading to continued hazardous marine conditions. Good catch
by the overnight shift of the possibility of marine fog but the
biggest concern is we may not be too warm. Best chance for Marine
fog should be along MS Sound and around the mouth of the MS river
where the much cooler river waters enters the Gulf. A cold front
will move through the region overnight Saturday and Sunday. This
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region and finally
offshore flow after it passes. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  87  72  86 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  74  88  74  89 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  74  86  73  84 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  74  86  74  86 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  71  81  71  80 /   0  10   0  20
PQL  71  82  70  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ058-
     066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086.

GM...     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...CAB