244
FXUS64 KLIX 062333
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
533 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

A very dry airmass has allowed relative humidity to fall into the
upper teens and lower 20s this afternoon. Even with relatively
light winds of less than 10 mph, several small wildfires have
developed this afternoon. This wildfire threat should wane this
evening as temperatures cool and humidity values begin to rise.
Beyond this short term wildfire threat, a relatively benign
stretch of weather will persist into tomorrow as high pressure
dominates. Temperatures will continue to warm as deep layer
subsidence and dry air work in tandem. After a cool start to the
day with lows in the 40s and lower 50s, highs will quickly climb
into the mid to upper 70s in most locations. A weak seabreeze
component on the coast will keep highs in the lower 70s. By
tomorrow night, southerly flow on the backside of a departing
surface high will keep temperatures elevated in the upper 50s and
lower 60s as moisture begins to feed back into the region. This
increased low level moisture and light boundary layer flow of less
than 10 knots will support some radiation fog development
tomorrow night, and have included a mention of patchy fog in the
forecast.

Conditions will turn more unsettled for Saturday into Saturday
night as a fast moving positively tilted southern stream trough
axis slides into the area. There continue to be differences
between the various model solutions on where a surface low
develops Saturday and just how far inland a more warm and unstable
airmass can penetrate. The GFS is the most bullish in terms of
warm air advection with a more northerly surface low forming along
the I-20 corridor and greater overall instability extending as far
north as southern Mississippi. However, the Euro and the Canadian
models have the low forming more along the I-10 corridor and this
keeps the most unstable airmass confined to the immediate coast
and offshore.

Based on the Euro and the Canadian trending ever so slightly
toward the GFS, the forecast package calls for deeper southerly
flow and increased instability to overspread the entire forecast
area by the late afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday.
This will allow highs to climb into the mid to upper 70s and
MLCAPE values to surge to around 1000 J/KG. Effective shear will
be near 50 knots and the region will be beneath the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak. The combination of favorable
deep layer forcing, shear, and thermodynamics will support deeper
and more long lasting updrafts that will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and hail. The hail parameters are very favorable
with mid-level lapse rates averaging near 7.0 C/KM and lower
freezing levels of around 12,000 feet, and there should be a few
storms that produce large hail in the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Some of the storms could also produce some stronger
winds if they can truly become surface based as the lapse rates
aloft do favor some downburst potential. By late evening, the
severe threat will begin to diminish rapidly as the jet streak
pulls to the east and the loss of daytime heating reduced overall
instability and updraft strength. By late Saturday night, a surge
of drier air aloft will lead to decreasing PoPs from west to
east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

A much cooler airmass will move into the area on Sunday as the
heart of the positively tilted trough axis slides through the
region and a cold front sweeps offshore. Highs will be slightly
cooler than average for most locations, but a weak downslope
component on the Mississippi coast will keep highs in the lower
70s and humidity low in that specific region. Otherwise, highs
will only warm into the low to mid 60s. These slightly below
average conditions will persist into Monday as weak cold air
advection associated continues with highs only warming into the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

As a deep layer ridge moves over the area on Tuesday, increased
subsidence will support warmer temperatures and continued dry
weather with highs climbing back to average in the low to mid 70s.
Lows will also be warmer with readings falling into the upper 40s
and low to mid 50s Tuesday night. The deep layer ridge will
quickly shift to the east on Wednesday as another fast moving
upper level low embedded within the southern stream passes through
the region. This system will have less moisture to work with as
return flow will be limited to only a few hours in advance of the
system, and the forecast calls for only isolated to widely
scattered light rain shower activity Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Temperatures will continue to warm ahead of this
fast moving system with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s
Wednesday afternoon and lows only cooling into the upper 50s and
lower 60s Wednesday night. The models are also in good agreement
on the timing of this system, so forecast confidence is higher
than normal in this extended time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and during the day
tomorrow. Gusty southwesterly winds will pick up tomorrow ahead of
another approaching front, but they should die down shortly after
the sun sets tomorrow. Outside of the gusty winds, MVFR ceilings
look to creep into the area towards the very end of the current
forecast period as low-level moisture from the Gulf advects
northward ahead of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

High pressure over the waters will allow for lighter winds and
calmer seas this evening, but winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots from the south later tonight as the high starts to shift
eastward and a low pressure system approaches from the west. These
southerly winds will continue into Saturday before shifting to the
northwest Saturday night and Sunday in the wake of a passing low
and cold front. Winds will briefly increase into advisory range
Sunday night into early Monday as a cooler and drier airmass
advects over the warmer waters. However, as high pressure quickly
settles in Monday night and Tuesday, light winds and calmer seas
will be the rule.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  79  58  77 /   0   0  10  80
BTR  47  79  61  77 /   0   0  10  90
ASD  45  76  61  76 /   0   0  10  90
MSY  51  75  64  75 /   0   0  10  90
GPT  51  70  61  73 /   0   0  20  80
PQL  43  71  60  75 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...PG