088
FXUS64 KLIX 251757
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Once convection wanes this evening the remainder of the short term
will be fairly quiet. Upper level high pressure will build over
the area, effectively putting an end to rain chances through the
weekend.

The high pressure will also allow for mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies and the ample sunshine will make for warm afternoons.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, running about 5
degrees above normal in most locations, with peak afternoon heat
index values near or just over 90 degrees. While these heat index
values would be a welcome treat come August, this early in the
season, the combination of the high sun angle and warmer than
normal temperatures will lead to a slight increase in heat risk
across the region - especially for those participating in the
myriad outdoor festivals across the area, and even more so for any
out of town visitors. Those with outdoor plans should take
precautions to stay safe from the heat by staying hydrated,
wearing lightweight and light-colored clothing, and using
sunscreen.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High pressure continues to dominate the area through the first
part of the work week, leading to continued warmer than normal
temperatures and low rain chances.

Wednesday will be a transition day of sorts as stubborn southern
stream energy finally kicks out of the desert southwest toward
the middle Mississippi Valley. As the upper trough moves eastward
it will cause the upper ridge to flatten and shift eastward away
from the local area. Sensible-weather-wise it still looks fairly
quiet locally on Wednesday, though a couple stray showers and
storms may develop during the afternoon, especially across
northwestern areas.

As the upper trough continues eastward, a surface low will move
into the middle Mississippi valley on Thursday, forcing a cold
front southeastward into northern Texas and Arkansas. While this
front is unlikely to ever reach the local area, an influx of
moisture ahead of the front will lead to increasing rain chances
on Thursday in the form of diurnally forced scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Outside of convection expect generally VFR conditions to prevail
through the period, though a few hours of IFR restrictions due to
either low stratus or fog will be possible around daybreak and
tempo groups have been included at several terminals. Biggest
question is timing of any restrictions due to convection. For
northwestern terminals (BTR, MCB, and HDC) showers and storms
appear more likely given latest radar trends, and have included
tempo groups for thunderstorms this afternoon. At other terminals,
convection is less likely so prob30 groups have been included
later in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Expect benign conditions to prevail through at least the next 5
days as high pressure remains in control of the northern Gulf.
While there may be a few periods of winds in the 10-15 knot range,
winds will generally be less than 10 knots with seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  85  65  87 /  20  10   0  20
BTR  66  87  66  89 /  20  10   0  10
ASD  66  86  66  87 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  69  85  69  87 /  20  10   0  10
GPT  67  83  67  84 /  20  10   0  10
PQL  64  86  64  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM