Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
088 FXUS64 KLIX 251757 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Once convection wanes this evening the remainder of the short term will be fairly quiet. Upper level high pressure will build over the area, effectively putting an end to rain chances through the weekend. The high pressure will also allow for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and the ample sunshine will make for warm afternoons. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, running about 5 degrees above normal in most locations, with peak afternoon heat index values near or just over 90 degrees. While these heat index values would be a welcome treat come August, this early in the season, the combination of the high sun angle and warmer than normal temperatures will lead to a slight increase in heat risk across the region - especially for those participating in the myriad outdoor festivals across the area, and even more so for any out of town visitors. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to stay safe from the heat by staying hydrated, wearing lightweight and light-colored clothing, and using sunscreen. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the area through the first part of the work week, leading to continued warmer than normal temperatures and low rain chances. Wednesday will be a transition day of sorts as stubborn southern stream energy finally kicks out of the desert southwest toward the middle Mississippi Valley. As the upper trough moves eastward it will cause the upper ridge to flatten and shift eastward away from the local area. Sensible-weather-wise it still looks fairly quiet locally on Wednesday, though a couple stray showers and storms may develop during the afternoon, especially across northwestern areas. As the upper trough continues eastward, a surface low will move into the middle Mississippi valley on Thursday, forcing a cold front southeastward into northern Texas and Arkansas. While this front is unlikely to ever reach the local area, an influx of moisture ahead of the front will lead to increasing rain chances on Thursday in the form of diurnally forced scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Outside of convection expect generally VFR conditions to prevail through the period, though a few hours of IFR restrictions due to either low stratus or fog will be possible around daybreak and tempo groups have been included at several terminals. Biggest question is timing of any restrictions due to convection. For northwestern terminals (BTR, MCB, and HDC) showers and storms appear more likely given latest radar trends, and have included tempo groups for thunderstorms this afternoon. At other terminals, convection is less likely so prob30 groups have been included later in the afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Expect benign conditions to prevail through at least the next 5 days as high pressure remains in control of the northern Gulf. While there may be a few periods of winds in the 10-15 knot range, winds will generally be less than 10 knots with seas 1-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 85 65 87 / 20 10 0 20 BTR 66 87 66 89 / 20 10 0 10 ASD 66 86 66 87 / 20 10 0 10 MSY 69 85 69 87 / 20 10 0 10 GPT 67 83 67 84 / 20 10 0 10 PQL 64 86 64 87 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM