190
FXUS64 KLIX 032128
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
428 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another warm and breezy day across the region. Highs once again
climbed into the 80s across the entire area while clouds hung
around all day. As was said already it was breezy and most of the
region so winds gust into the 30s but definitely lighter than
yesterday. As for the coastal flooding concerns...tides were
elevated but it appears that they have been able to just hold off
from becoming more of a nuisance.

Overall the next 36 possibly 48 hours will be fairly quiet.
Biggest concern in the short term remains the higher than normal
tides but luckily this is still behaving as tides have only been
running about 0.9 to 1.3 ft above normal. I think the reason the
tides haven`t been higher especially around the waveland and Shell
Beach areas is there hasn`t been enough of an easterly component.
The other possible thing that is helping us is that the run up in
water occurred just as we moved to spring tide. In some of the
bigger events it was a few days priors so the meteorological run
up coincided with the astronomical run up which provides a little
momentum and can really ratchet up. So this is a good thing but we
are still not completely out of the woods. The tides will
continue to remain elevated and with winds possibly becoming a
little more southeasterly tonight through early Saturday there is
still the possibility that the water will pule up a little more
and could lead to a little more impacts than what we have seen
already.

Heading into tomorrow the L/W trough to our west will begin to
tighten up and amplify and as the next mid lvl jet max rounds the
base it will begin to push east. The first shot of energy will
work across the southern Plains and towards the Mid MS Valley
tomorrow. It will spark another severe weather event across those
areas but it will anchor the front across central TX northeast
through central AR and all the way towards OH. This and the sfc
high over the Bahamas keep the southerly to southeasterly LL flow
in place which will continue to push moisture deeper into the
Lower MS Valley. We could even see some showers tomorrow afternoon
across the northern half/3rd of the CWA with the increase in
moisture and subtle lift that again appears to detach from the
main flow. These will just be light showers at best and will
quickly die off as sunset approaches. The stage will be set for
another day of widespread severe weather of the Lower MS Valley
and into the TN Valley and portions of the deep south on Saturday
and Saturday night. /CAB/


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The extended is a tale of two different forecast. The weekend
begins rather warm and quiet but then showers and thunderstorms
move into the area late Saturday and could impact the region
through midday Sunday. After the cold front moves through we begin
the new work week on the chilly side and it looks to be chilly
into the middle of the week. There are still a lot of
uncertainties regarding the system this weekend and how fast
things move through but also how significant is the severe weather
threat over the area or is the locally heavy rain the bigger
concern. Made a few adjustments to slow down the return of rain on
Saturday especially across the east. Otherwise, no other
deviations were made to the extended forecast from the NBM.

Heading into Saturday the next mid lvl jet finally rounds the
base of the L/W trough and will move through the TX Big Bend
region and into the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early Saturday.
This helps to develop another sfc low along the boundary and that
sfc low will move through northern LA into southern AR and into
northern MS by Saturday evening. Widespread strong to severe
storms are expected along the front across much of central and
northern LA and into northwestern MS by late afternoon early
evening but as the evening progresses and into the overnight hours
things become more uncertain.

There is more and more indication that another decent s/w will be
diving down the backside of the L/W trough and this will cause the
trough to anchor back to the southwest while the more potent jet
energy lifts to the northeast and moves mostly through the
ARKLATEX overnight and into the ARKLAMISS during the day Sunday.
However the cold front and convection which will initially be a
rather solid line will continue to surge east overnight but at
some point it will outrun the support and begin to slowly down
while convection begins to weaken. There will be no shortage of
moisture and instability but as we lose the LL convergence with it
lifting north in response to the mid lvl support hanging back and
to the north storms will wane. There risk for severe is definitely
there but that may be mostly contained to our northwest so from
Baton Rouge to McComb and northwest of that area there is
definitely a concern for severe storms and the risk may even be a
tad farther to the northwest. That said the overall thunderstorm
risk will not come to an end and showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible all night and slowly slide southeast through the
night. The problem though is the front will be parallel to the mid
lvl flow and with the lack of organized convection aiding its
push to the southeast due to the lack of a good cold pool that
front will start to slow down drastically. This begins to increase
the risk for locally heavy rain. Broad scale lift will continue
through the morning hours and into the midday hours Sunday so
additional numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue and a few could train over some areas. The problem is
trying to figure out where that might be. Also if the line is
evening stronger than anticipated Saturday night or the support
is able to slide just a tad more to the east that line may not
have as much of a problem pushing all the way through and into the
Gulf or AL by mid/late morning and then the heavy rain threat
would come to an end.

We are currently under an Enhanced and Slight Risk for severe
weather with Enhanced in that northwest area that I mentioned
earlier and the Slight Risk for most of the rest of the area.
Overall the risk area provided by SPC looks good however, it may
be a little overzealous to the southeast. That said southwest MS
and adjacent parish like Pointe Coupee, West and East Felciana`s
have the greatest risk for severe weather. Rainfall will all be
determined by where the boundary starts to drag. Overall though
don`t be surprised to see widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain across
the entire area as the more efficient heavy rain will be possible
across the northwest but the longer persistent rain and possibly
training will be across the southeastern half of the CWA. Isolated
pocket of locally heavy rain will be possible.

Finally the L/W trough starts to move east but it will still be
slanted to the southwest and the actually trough axis will not
push through until overnight Monday or even early Tuesday. This
could keep some very limited light shower activity over the coasts
and just inland Monday but we likely won`t see the greater push of
cold air till Monday along with the drier air. Northwest flow
remains in place through mid week and we will be on the colder
aide through much of the work week with highs in the 70s and
possibly even upper 60s a few days. Lows fall into the 50s Monday
morning but then mid 40s to near 50 Tuesday morning and possibly
lower 40s in a few of the typical cold spots Wednesday. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Again the biggest problem for the TAFs is the low cigs. MVFR cigs
are impacting most terminals with BTR and MCB begin the lone
terminals in VFR while GPT is in LIFR right now with GPT around
900ft. All sites will continue to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR
as breaks in the clouds cover will lead to this but overnight
again low cigs will develop across the area again. GPT may
continue to see IFR cigs and possibly MVFR vsbys during the 08 to
14z time frame. Winds will slack off some overnight but we will
remain breezy and through tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Moderate to strong southerly and southeasterly winds will remain
in place through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Not
only will the strong onshore flow be in place, but the southeast
fetch will set up over the Gulf. This will lead to hazardous boating
conditions and well above normal tides across the region. These
impacts will last into the weekend before the passage of the next
cold front on Sunday. /CAB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  85  72  85 /   0  30  10  60
BTR  75  88  74  87 /   0  20  10  40
ASD  73  84  73  86 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  76  85  75  86 /   0  10   0  20
GPT  71  81  71  80 /   0  10   0  20
PQL  71  83  72  82 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-
     066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB