836
FXUS64 KLIX 300834
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
334 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Upper trough this morning extended from Pennsylvania southwestward
to Arkansas and east Texas, with a center of circulation in
eastern Kentucky. A northern stream shortwave was noted from
western Canada into Montana. Ridging was noted from the Four
Corners region into Wisconsin. At the surface, high pressure
extended from Bermuda into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper
pattern placed the local area in southwesterly mid-level flow,
which was producing some cirrus cloud cover across portions of the
area from about Interstate 10 southward. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT
generally ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s, except at Lakefront
Airport in New Orleans, where the warmer waters of Lake
Pontchartrain were holding temperatures around 80.

The upper low center over Kentucky will gradually open up and lift
northeastward to off the New England coast by Tuesday evening,
with the trough axis shifting eastward. The axis should extend
from the Carolina coast to the southeast Louisiana coast by
Tuesday evening. With the lower levels remaining pretty dry
(precipitable water 1.1-1.4 inches), precipitation chances are
expected to remain below 20 percent, but can`t totally rule out a
stray shower or two tomorrow afternoon. Really shouldn`t see much
temperature change from yesterday for today and tomorrow. Not
much reason to diverge from the NBM deterministic numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

The trough axis across the area Tuesday night will not move much
for the second half of the work week. An impulse moving
northeastward out of the Gulf will spread moisture across the
area on Thursday and Friday with precipitable water values 2
inches or higher across a good portion of the area. A weakening
cold front approaching the area will provide a focus for showers
and a few thunderstorms, with the best chances from about
Interstate 10 southward. That`ll hold high temperatures down
several degrees at the end of the week with lower to middle 80s
instead of mid 80s to lower 90s. Northern stream shortwaves will
eventually suppress the trough further southward into the Gulf
over the weekend with rain chances decreasing.

We still need to keep a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico with
potential tropical weather development by late in the week or
next weekend, but the last several computer model runs have
indicated somewhat less of a threat to the local area. It is much
too soon to relax our vigilance though. Keep monitoring
information from reliable sources focusing on NHC outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

There is some mid and upper level clouds moving across the area
but otherwise no impacts with VFR conditions persisting through
the forecast. Winds will remain on the light and vrb side with
the only real changes due to lake/sea/land breeze development.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

At least a couple more quiet days on the waters with winds
remaining at or below 15 knots. From Wednesday onward, the
pressure gradient will tighten somewhat, and there may be several
periods where Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are
necessary. That would primarily be over the open waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  65  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  92  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  89  68  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  88  73  88  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  87  69  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RW