624
FXUS64 KLIX 162335
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
635 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A persistence forecast package is in place for today as the region
continues to see a deep layer ridge axis be the dominant feature
through the weekend. There will be some weakening of the ridge
tomorrow as a northern stream trough passes through the Midwest,
but a continued strong capping inversion in the mid-levels will
prohibit deeper updrafts from developing. At most, a very isolated
shower or thunderstorm may develop in southwest Mississippi
tomorrow afternoon where the capping inversion is expected to be
weakest. Additionally, if an updraft is able to punch through the
cap and develop a storm, it could turn strong and produce some
gusty winds as drier air aloft and steep low level lapse rates
beneath the inversion support a higher than average downdraft
potential. Elsewhere, the same conditions observed today can be
expected for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning cloud cover that
forms beneath that mid-level inversion will mix out to a mostly
sunny sky by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Dewpoints
will remain in the low to mid 70s, and highs will easily warm into
the upper 80s and lower 90s with the hottest temperatures inland
and away from any coastal influences.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Conditions on Monday will remain the same as those seen this
weekend as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf South continues to
be the dominant weather feature. Morning clouds and lows in the
low to mid 70s will give way to mostly sunny skies and highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. Monday night will see similar
conditions with another round of cloud cover forming after
midnight.

Tuesday into Wednesday will be a more transitional period of
weather as the ridge axis over the area finally begins to shift to
the east in response to a deepening longwave trough over the
Plains states. This deepening trough will drive a cold front
through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, and just
enough moisture return into the mid-levels should be sufficient to
produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Any convection should be confined to the
front itself and rainfall will generally be short-lived with QPF
of less than a quarter of an inch expected. Fortunately, shear
profiles are not supportive of any strong to severe thunderstorm
activity as the front moves through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front with highs
climbing back to near 90 degrees on Tuesday. However, a surge of
cooler air on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern will
advect into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will fall
back closer to average on Wednesday and should fall to slightly
below average in the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. A much
drier airmass will also move in and this will push dewpoints from
the lower 70s down into the 50s on Thursday. With largely clear
skies and lighter winds in place by Thursday night, lows will
easily dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s resulting in a
refreshing break from the recent heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Generally VFR conditions currently across the area will be
changing to MVFR as temperatures drop overnight as a stratus deck
develops below temperature inversion begining around 05 to 06Z.
Stratus build down will continue through the night to IFR levels
as low as 800 feet at all locations except MSY/GPT/NEW and even
below 800 at MCB. At MCB the stratus build down will merge with
light fog conditions resulting in VIS as low as 3SM. By 15 to 16Z
temperature inversion will begin to mix out giving improving
conditions as the stratus deck breaks up and lifts. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A broad surface high pressure system centered over the eastern
Gulf will keep a persistent onshore flow regime in place through
Tuesday. Winds will range from 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4
feet are expected through the period. On Wednesday, a cold front
will push through the coastal waters. Winds will turn more
westerly and then northwesterly through the day and some scattered
thunderstorm activity will accompany the frontal passage. These
thunderstorms could produce some locally gusty winds as they move
through. Other than that thunderstorm threat on Wednesday, a very
benign stretch of weather is anticipated for the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  92  70  91 /   0  10  10   0
BTR  75  92  73  91 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  74  91  73  89 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  75  90  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  75  86  75  85 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  73  86  72  85 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...PG