Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
263 FXUS64 KLIX 051944 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 244 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The overall pattern is left unchanged from the last several days with the H5 weakness remaining over our region. The CWFA remains split nearly 50/50 with dry air to the northwest and better moisture to the southeast...where the best potential for convection resides. Through the short term, the flow will remain light with a high pressure wedge down the Appalachians and surface trough remaining in close proximity. Like days past, temperatures will remain around seasonal averages with the very modest weakness aloft.(Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 There will be a bit of a change in the pattern going into the medium range. To start, later in the workweek, the weakness and surface feature are largely left unchanged from the short term period. Not much changes day to day expect maybe slightly lower POPs on Friday as the weakness tries to fill just a bit. Regardless, eyes will refocus to the southeast toward the southwest Atlantic and Caribbean where an easterly wave will be moving into the Gulf. This feature should continue to move downstream into our neck of the woods through this weekend. No guidance shows this anything more than a sharp inverted surface trough at this point. Regardless, an influx of tropical moisture is anticipated, which will enhance the convective potential. With the likely higher coverage, did shift temperatures down a skosh as lower to mid 90s seems a bit bullish with numerous clusters of storms around as the wave moves through. Temperatures will rebound early next week. A stronger H5 ridge sets up over the southeast in the wake of the passing easterly wave once again warming us up and putting the brakes on higher POP potential. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 After some morning low cloudiness most terminals have improved and are now MVFR or VFR respectively. There may be additional low cloudiness later tonight and early Wednesday, especially for MCB and GPT. Convection will be possible this afternoon and again Wednesday which may cause brief reductions in VIS/CIGs, however, outside of convection expect mostly VFR conditions. Winds continue to remain light and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A surface front/trough continues to reside over the northern Gulf and is enhancing convective potential especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Convection should be the primary focus as winds and seas around any convection may be locally higher. In the light low level flow, waterspouts may be possible, especially any updraft that can become rooted into a surface boundary. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 90 71 92 / 20 30 10 30 BTR 73 92 74 93 / 30 50 10 40 ASD 71 90 72 91 / 40 60 30 50 MSY 77 92 77 93 / 30 70 30 70 GPT 74 91 74 91 / 50 60 30 50 PQL 72 90 72 90 / 50 60 40 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF