101
FXUS64 KLIX 171111 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
611 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today will be a transition day into a more rainy period that
should last into the start of the new workweek. Convective
coverage is expected to increase today, however, with a bit later
initialization, heat index values will again reach Advisory
thresholds. Some heat relief will be possible late in the
afternoon as showers and storm develop...although some showers or
thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall. PWAT values of 2.0 give
or take will allow for very efficent rainfall rates, which over
flood prone areas could cause some minor flooding. Convection
should begin to decrease around sunset, however, kept at least
some lower-end POPs overnight even over the less favor landbased
zones, especially since a surface frontal boundary will be moving
southward toward our region. By Thursday the front stalls over our
area and during peak heating will help enhance coverage of shower
and thunderstorm activity. A pulse strong to severe storm will be
possible with gusty winds and small hail possible in the
stronger/wider updrafts. This will likely be a secondary threat
just behind possible hydro concerns. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Active southwesterly mid/upper flow will remain in place through
the long term period after becoming established during the short
term period. At the surface a frontal boundary will remain stalled
over the region through much of the medium range. Weak onshore
flow will persist through the long term period as well, which will
continue to draw deeper moisture northward into our area. With
the front enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity during the
peak heating hours, isolated to scattered showers and storms will
also remain possible outside of diurnal max. Similar to the short
term period, PWAT values of 2.0"+ will allow for very efficient
rainfall rates. As been advertised, weak steering could lead to
multiple storms over the same areas in a short amount of time
leading to possible flash flooding concerns. WPC has outlined the
region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall late week and
into the weekend. Furthermore, some stronger updrafts again could
contain small hail and gusty winds as well so a strong to severe
storm or two cannot be ruled out, but this would likely be the
exception rather than the rule.

The surface boundary will begin to lift northward early next
week. At the same time, an easterly wave will move into the Gulf
of Mexico allowing for deeper tropical moisture to spill into the
region from the southeast...again enhancing rain/storm potential.
This timeframe has rather high POPs than usual for the medium
range, but confidence in continued at least diurnally driven
showers and storms is high as the wet regime remains in place
across the forecast area. With the uptick in clouds and rain,
temperatures will be at or just below average for this time of
year with most places struggling to reach 90F. So at this
juncture, the need for heat headlines will be unlikely beyond
Thursday. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected outside of convection. Speaking of, the
best timing looks to be mid to late afternoon or early evening.
Continued TEMPOs for this time with VCs either side. Outside of
this afternoon, a few scattered showers have developed this
morning and may continue to do so...so used VCs respectively.
Highest chances this AM will be closer to the coast. Otherwise,
should dry out overnight before rain chances increase on
Thursdays. Winds should continue to be light and variable,
however, some higher winds/gusts are likely in and around
convection. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally favorable marine conditions through this forecast
period. A southerly or onshore flow is anticipated through the
remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend with
winds generally around or less than 10kts. That said, diurnally
driven convection will be possible during the late night hours
through the morning. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible in the strongest activity. With the generally light low
level flow and likelihood of outflow boundaries from previous
convection the evening before, waterspouts will also remain a
threat. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  90  72 /  60  30 100  60
BTR  96  78  95  76 /  70  30  90  60
ASD  94  77  93  75 /  70  30 100  70
MSY  93  79  92  77 /  80  30 100  60
GPT  92  78  92  76 /  60  30  90  70
PQL  95  77  94  75 /  50  30  90  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF