Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
347 FXUS64 KLIX 271924 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Conditions will be dry and warm tonight through Friday afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s. A frontal system will be moving through the area late Friday into early Saturday. The bulk of the heaviest rainfall will be moving through the area between 10pm Friday and 6a Saturday. We are not currently outlooked for a risk of severe weather; however, we do have concerns that strong to even 1-2 severe storms could be possible if the MCS persists longer than models are forecasting. This could occur due to the models underestimating the combination of favorable parameters that are in place Saturday morning which, in our experience along the Gulf coast, tend to overcome the lack of daytime influence. Due to this concern, we cannot rule out the possibility of strong to potentially a few severe storms as the system moves through, with the caveat being that this is a low confidence forecast. Regardless, the main risks will be gusty winds (30-50mph and potentially as high as 60mph if the system persists) as well as locally heavy rainfall in vulnerable locations. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Saturday through Sunday, the low moves off to the east early Saturday. Southerly flow will perisist, so the temperatures will remain warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. But, the rain chances will be fairly low for Saturday and Sunday as a whole. Looking at the recent model trends, we can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm occurring Saturday or Sunday afternoons. But these would not be severe. Another frontal system will push through the area early Monday through the daytime hours Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty in the models at this point, especially on the timing, but also on the severity. We are currently outlooked in a 15% risk of severe weather by SPC for Sunday into Monday. For the latest model runs, generally the bulk of the weather looks to be between 4a and 4p Monday. Given the parameters in place, severe weather will certainly be possible with this system. Gusty strong to severe winds would be the main threat with the potential for an embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This could still change significantly as we go through the next few days, so we will be monitoring for changes closely. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Gusty winds around 20-25kts will be possible at all area airports throughout the forecast period as well. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Winds will be southerly and strong (15-20kts) Friday morning through Saturday. Saturday through Tuesday morning winds will be southerly and moderate (10-15kts). Tuesday, winds will be easterly and moderate (10-15kts). Wednesday through Friday, winds will be strong (15-20kts) and southerly in direction. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 82 63 77 / 10 30 40 90 BTR 64 83 66 80 / 10 50 60 90 ASD 63 82 65 79 / 10 10 30 80 MSY 66 82 67 79 / 10 20 40 90 GPT 63 76 64 74 / 0 10 20 70 PQL 60 79 63 77 / 0 0 10 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW