183
FXUS64 KLIX 071129
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Upper ridging centered over south Texas this morning. Shortwaves
were noted over Oklahoma and western Nebraska, with a closed low
off the California coast. At the surface, high pressure extended
from east of Bermuda across much of the Gulf. A weak frontal
boundary was near Interstate 40. Thunderstorms extended from
northwest Arkansas to the Texas Panhandle early this morning.
Closer to the local area, a few showers were off the coast of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but the local area was mainly
dry. Early morning temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower
80s. Conditions were rather humid with dew points in the mid 70s,
and not much in the way of wind.

The center of the upper ridge will drift westward a bit into
northern Mexico by Sunday afternoon, with a weakness in the upper
ridge over the Bahamas. That will turn the upper flow a bit more
northwesterly, especially on Sunday. No real identifiable
shortwave to impact the local area today, so any showers/storms
today are likely to fire off small scale boundaries such as lake
and sea breeze boundaries, similar to Friday afternoon. That
should keep areal coverage rather low, and probably won`t see
much, if any, development prior to midday. A shortwave moving
across the middle Mississippi River Valley on Sunday may be close
enough to provide a little more of a focus for convective
development by late afternoon. Precipitable water values will be
in the 1.7 to 1.8 range, with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg and no
significant capping, so conditions will be sufficient to promote
at least some storm development. A good bit of dry air in the
700-500 mb layer, and DCAPE values near 1200, so there`s at least
some threat of rather gusty winds if convection gets deep enough,
especially Sunday afternoon.

High temperatures likely to be in the 90 to 94 degree range both
today and Sunday. Overall, heat index values should top out around
105 both days. There will be isolated locations that could get
close to our Heat Advisory criteria of 108, but due to the very
limited extent of those readings, will not issue an advisory at
this time. Afternoon storms could also provide cooling to hold
readings down. Still, it is early in the season, and those with
outdoor activities planned may not be acclimated to the conditions
yet. Keep well hydrated and don`t be afraid to take breaks in the
shade as necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A strong upper trough will move across the western Great Lakes
Sunday night and Monday. A complex of thunderstorms over Oklahoma
and Texas Sunday afternoon will move toward the local area Sunday
night and Monday morning. Still uncertain whether that complex
makes it to the local area intact, or dissipates before it reaches
the area. Convection allowing models aren`t in particularly good
agreement regarding this. If it dissipates, there will very
likely be a remnant boundary to focus redevelopment by Monday
afternoon. Again, forecast soundings indicate potential for strong
to severe storms from about the Interstate 10/12 corridor
northward.

Beyond Monday evening, the Great Lakes trough pulls away to the
east, returning the lower Mississippi River Valley to a regime
that is more guided by mesoscale or smaller processes instead of
a large complex of storms. In other words...a summertime pattern.
This will bring a day to day chance of showers and storms, with
any larger scale focus remaining west of the area through at least
the end of the workweek.

High temperatures each day will be guided by the timing of
storm development. If it happens around midday, highs don`t get
much higher than 90, if it is mid to late afternoon, then readings
are closer to 93-94. Overnight lows are likely to remain in the
mid and upper 70s for most areas. Not really a strong target of
opportunity to make significant improvements to the NBM numbers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A few MVFR ceilings at forecast issuance time. Radar also
depicting isolated SHRA necessitating VCSH at KASD and KHUM for
the next couple hours. No indications of any lightning since
precipitation started developing two hours ago. Most ceilings
should improve to VFR by about 16z. Lake and sea breeze boundaries
could initiate additional development by early afternoon, with
the best chances at KNEW and KMSY. For now, will carry VCSH for
those as well, but the afternoon development may necessitate
mention of TSRA at some point. Would expect the afternoon
development to dissipate by sunset. MVFR ceilings could again
develop toward sunrise on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Main concern for marine operations will be the threat of
thunderstorms, especially from Sunday afternoon onward, as storms
will be capable of producing localized gusty winds. Outside of the
thunderstorm threat, likely to see an increase in winds across the
eastern waters during the afternoon and evening hours, as is
typical during the summer. Winds could top out around 15-17 knots
for a few hours, and Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be
briefly necessary on several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  74  92  73 /  20   0  40  40
BTR  94  76  94  76 /  30   0  40  20
ASD  93  75  92  75 /  20   0  40  30
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  30   0  40  10
GPT  91  76  92  76 /  20   0  40  50
PQL  92  75  92  75 /  20  10  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW