Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
165 FXUS64 KLIX 280505 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1205 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Upper troughing continued from eastern Canada to Florida this evening, with ridging along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Kentucky. The evening LIX upper air sounding showed an increase in low level moisture from 24 hours earlier, with precipitable water values just under 2 inches, as compared to 1.7 inches last night. Evening dew points were generally in the lower and middle 70s, which wasn`t much different than last night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed during the late afternoon hours from the Pearl River Basin westward, but mostly dissipated shortly after sunset. Shortwave energy is expected to move down the east side of the ridge toward the base of the trough over the next 18-24 hours, with another shortwave on Friday. By Friday afternoon, precipitable water values will have increased to about 2.1 inches. Areal coverage of convection today will be greatest from the Pearl River Basin westward, but probably not much more than 30-40 percent at any one time. With deeper moisture available, Friday will see significantly better areal coverage, with scattered to numerous showers/storms. Locally heavy rainfall could be a concern by Friday afternoon, but coming out of about 5 days of drier weather, most areas should be able to tolerate an inch or two of rain, as long as it doesn`t occur in 30 minutes. Forecast soundings would justify high temperatures a degree or two higher than yesterday, but clouds, precipitation and an approaching frontal boundary on Friday are likely to hold high temperatures in the 80s for most of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 There will be a continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the area through Saturday for sure, but beyond that point, the global model solutions begin to diverge. The ECMWF ensemble PoPs dry things out considerably with the frontal boundary pushing far enough into the Gulf to justify only isolated convection from Sunday through the end of the forecast period. The last few runs of the GFS would indicate the precipitation threat would continue into at least Monday or Monday night for much of the area, especially south of Interstate 10 as it doesn`t push the frontal boundary nearly as far south as the ECMWF. The previous forecast package gave credence to the GFS solution, and the latest NBM numbers aren`t much of a change from that. Considering a clean frontal passage well into the Gulf is a bit unusual, but not unheard of in late August/early September, we`ll hold with the slower trends. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry regardless of the chosen solution. High temperature forecasts for the weekend will be more dependent on precipitation than anything else, with the wetter solutions holding highs in the 80s. By the end of the forecast period, the drier solutions should mean high temperature near or slightly above normal. Overnight lows could fall into the 60s for about the northern half of the area, especially Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Expect mainly VFR conditions overnight. Precipitation potential is a bit greater on Thursday, and will use PROB30 during the afternoon hours at all terminals except KMCB. Will use TEMPO at KMCB, closer to the frontal boundary. Precipitation could linger into the evening hours a little later than this past evening, but probably not much beyond 02-03z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Main marine concern during at least the first half of the forecast period will be the threat for thunderstorms that could produce locally higher winds and seas. Forecast confidence is a bit lower by late in the weekend, with an approaching cold front. The current wind forecast would indicate generally offshore flow by late Sunday afternoon for most or all of the waters. If the front makes it well into the Gulf similar to the ECMWF solution, that might increase wind speeds enough to justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines by Monday or Tuesday. For now, will hold with the current 10 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 70 84 69 / 50 60 70 60 BTR 93 75 89 72 / 40 30 70 50 ASD 91 71 87 71 / 20 30 50 50 MSY 93 77 92 77 / 20 20 50 40 GPT 89 72 87 72 / 20 30 40 50 PQL 91 70 86 71 / 20 30 40 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW