133
FXUS64 KLIX 021128
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
528 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Colder air will move into the region following this system,
   with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday morning.
   Another light freeze is forecast along/north of the I-10/12,
   with generally 2-6 hours of subfreezing temperatures forecast.

 - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded
   thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There
   will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this
   system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in
   the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in
   the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated
   flood threats will continue to be refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

It has been a dreary night across much of the area. A band of
moderate to even heavy rain impacted the southeastern 3rd/half
of the CWA with some locations near the New Orleans metro and
across portions of the eastern 2/3rds of coastal MS seeing around
2 to 3 inches of rain. Through 4z it was a rather sharp cutoff
from moderate rain to much lighter/lower amounts with MSY only
seeing 0.21" NEW around 0.6" and NBG around 2.89". While ASD had
0.27" GPT with 3.23" and PQL 2.31". All areas back to the west
mainly saw a few hundredths to 0.2". Spotty showers will continue
through the night with final clearing line stretching from
northeast to southwest near Monroe to Natchitoches to just east of
Houston. That should move east and into northwestern portion of
the CWA between 10 and 11z and clearing at least half of the area
by 16z.

The greatest concern over the next 24-36 hours will be the
possibility of freezing temps tonight. A broad area of low pressure
just off the southeast LA coast is the main culprit with respect to
the rain. It will quickly lift to the northeast and will be along
the Atlantic coast of NC and VA. The main driver is the broad L/W
trough which is running SSW from Ontario through the Mid MS Valley
and about half way through the southern Plains. The pattern flattens
out pretty quickly across TX with generally westerly from the
Pacific across Mexico, Texas, the Gulf and much of the Gulf coast
states. The trough really de-amplifies with little to no noticeable
trough passage over our area as it moves east with mid lvl flow
remaining out of the west. Today we will begin the day overcast over
much of the area. The back edge of the last few showers will begin
to move in around 10/11z and should be completely through the area
around 19/20z with the clearing line behind that. Breezy northerly
winds, CAA, and mostly cloudy conditions through a good chunk of the
day will keep the area on the chillier side with highs only climbing
into the upper 40s to near 60 (northwest to southeast). This could
set the stage for a chilly night but will we be able to optimize the
setup.

As mentioned earlier we don`t really get a trough axis to pass
through the area and with westerly flow there is no real support to
push a much colder drier airmass down into the area and this is
making the forecast for tonight a little tricky. High pressure will
build in and should be sitting right over the region tonight. Skies
will clear out and winds will decouple. Winds will be light even in
the LL and all of that would suggest a rather favorable radiational
cooling night setup but there are a number of little things that
could be overlooked.

Typically I would think the NBM is once again struggling with a warm
bias as the deterministic NBM is in some locations 4 degrees warmer
than the 90th percentile. However, even the ECS and MAV are more
in line with the NBM. Why is the NBM sooooooo warm compared to its
probabilities? I think there are multiple things. First off is the
rain we have seen tonight. Yes that hasn`t been a lot over much of
the area but in the locations that typically get the coldest on
these radiational cooling nights we have had a decent wetting rain.
Second, looking up stream we don`t even see dewpoints in the upper
20s till you get to northern AR and that air isn`t going to surge
southeast. We will likely remain cloudy through at least the first
half of the day so with only a few hours or full sunlight and no
real surge of drier air the sfc and skin layer will still be
sufficiently moist. That will hurt radiational cooling potential.
The other possible impacts which multiple models are showing is that
between 00z and 12z Wed we will actually see WAA at h925. Temps at
that level could rise as much as 5 degrees during that time. As much
as I would like to cut temps, especially in our drainage areas, and
go closer towards the NBM75 or NBM50 there are enough questions to
make me hesitate and stick rather close to the latest NBM. With that
we will maintain the temps of upper 20s to near freezing along and
north of the 10/12 corridor but it would not be a surprise if this
forecast needs to be adjusted in either direction. The overall setup
would suggest cooler but all of the little hiccups suggest maybe a
degree or two warmer than our current forecast.

High pressure quickly slides east with return flow back over the
area late Wednesday with temperatures quickly moderating compared to
this afternoon. High will be back in the upper 50s to mid 60s across
the area Wednesday ahead of the next system which will begin to take
shape across the southern Plains and western Gulf. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Models continue to hit at another 36 to 48 hour period of
unsettled weather across the Gulf coast. A broad and positively
tilted L/W trough will be in place from the central Canada/US
border into the Pacific through the Baja. This will place much of
the Gulf coast under WSW flow aloft with rather deep moisture
being transported into the area from both the Gulf and Pacific.
PWs could climb to around 1.75 to 1.9" which is right around the
10th percentile. At the sfc we will see broad low pressure begin
to take shape over the western Gulf and TX coast with an inverted
trough bisecting the CWA Thursday and Thursday night before
finally starting to slide east Friday. This will be parallel to
the WSW flow aloft which would suggest the potential for training
at times. There will also be some instability to work with which
would suggest embedded thunderstorms. The instability and rather
high PWs would lead to more efficient rain. Looking aloft we could
be loosely under the RRQ but overall the upper lvl
divergence/diffluence isn`t the greatest. Current Marginal ERO
over the area for day 3 looks good however we could see a increase
to a Slight Risk if trends continue with possible heavy rain over
the area.

Sfc low eventually starts to take shape and slides east into the
northwestern Gulf Friday night while the broad L/W trough pushes
east across the central CONUS. High pressure quickly builds in
Saturday with a dry and cool weekend expected. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low ceilings and gusty northerly winds will be the primary
concerns through the morning hours at all of the terminals.
Ceilings will generally run between 800 and 1500 feet through 18z
at all of the terminals. There will variability in the cloud base
as drier air aloft begins to mix down into the boundary layer over
the next several hours. The drier air will finally fully mix down
and clear out the low cloud deck by 18z. After 18z, prevailing VFR
conditions are expected at all of the terminals. There is a low
probability of some low stratus redevelopment at GPT and MCB
around 12z tomorrow, and a scattered deck at 1000 to 1500 feet is
mentioned. Probabilities are too low include a metion of actual
broken ceiling conditions at these terminals currently. Winds will
also be gusty from the north at all of the terminals with frequent
gusts over 15 knots expected throughout the day. Winds will
begin to relax after 00z as temperatures cool and a high builds in
from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A broad area of low pressure just south of the coast will continue
to lift to the east-northeast into the Florida panhandle and then
southern Georgia by late this morning. We are already seeing
strong offshore winds on the back side of the surface low with
winds gusts from 25 to 30 kts west of the mouth of the river.
Winds will respond over the rest of the coastal waters as the
surface low continues to move through and lifts out. The strong
offshore winds will remain in place through midday slowly
weakening throughout the afternoon as high pressure builds over
the Lower Mississippi Valley. A small craft advisory is already in
effect for all of the coastal waters and will remain so through
midday. Winds should relax enough for it today drop off everywhere
by mid/late afternoon. High pressure will quickly slide east
across the southern US with light onshore flow returning Wednesday
morning. The next system will quickly begin to take shape with
broad low pressure over the western Gulf by Thursday and moving
through the coastal waters Thursday night and early Friday. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  29  59  44 /   0   0   0  70
BTR  51  32  62  48 /   0   0   0  80
ASD  55  30  61  46 /   0   0   0  60
MSY  56  41  63  53 /   0   0   0  70
GPT  57  34  59  47 /  10   0   0  50
PQL  59  29  60  43 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...CAB