317
FXUS64 KLIX 101120
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A highly amplified pattern across the eastern CONUS will remain in
place through the weekend as a very strong upper level trough
dominates the eastern seaboard and a very strong deep layer ridge
dominates the plains states. This will place the Gulf South in a
persistent northerly flow regime through the weekend. Embedded
within this northerly flow pattern, a northern stream shortwave
trough and attendant cold front will slide through the region
Friday morning. A cooler and even drier airmass will advect in
behind this front, and this will lead to a very pleasant stretch
of weather for the weekend. Low humidity, clear skies, and near
average temperatures can be expected through Sunday. Highs will
only warm into the low to mid 80s and overnight lows will plunge
into the mid to upper 50s north of the I-10/12 corridor and the
low to mid 60s south of I-10/12.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The pattern will begin to shift as we move into the next workweek
as the upper level trough over the eastern seaboard lifts to the
northeast. This will allow the deep layer ridge over the plains to
expand eastward and build across the Gulf South early next week.
The ridge will then remain the dominant feature impacting the
weather in the region through Thursday night. Strong subsidence
will help to both warm temperatures and keep any rain chances at
bay. In the low levels, a persistent northeast wind will also
limit low level moisture advection off the Gulf, so dewpoints will
remain in the 50s each afternoon. This will allow humidity values
to fall into the 30 to 40 percent range each day. A weak
reinforcing backdoor front sliding down from the northeast will
also help to keep the drier air in place. With clear skies and dry
air in place, a large diurnal range will take hold. Highs will
once again run warmer than average with readings climbing into the
mid to upper 80s each afternoon. However, strong radiational
cooling overnight will allow lows to quickly drop into the 60s
each night. Overall, a very benign run of weather will be in place
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Winds out of the ENE at 10 to 15kt at times for all terminals,
otherwise VFR will hold through this cycle.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

An extended period of small craft advisory conditions will be in
place across the waters through Saturday as a tight pressure
gradient between a high to the northwest and a low to the
southeast remains in place. North to northeast winds of 15 to 25
knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet in the Gulf waters will produce
rough boating conditions. Conditions will gradually improve
Saturday night as a surface high becomes more centered over the
area. By Sunday and Monday, lighter winds of less than 10 knots
will be in place beneath this high pressure system. Seas will also
decrease to between 1 and 3 feet over this period. Tuesday will
see a weak front slip through the waters as the high shifts back
to the west, and northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  57  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  85  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  85  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  67  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  62  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  85  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...PG