192
FXUS64 KLIX 040555
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Dense fog is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, especially
  across the Northshore and coastal Mississippi. Visibilities
  could drop to 1/4 mile or less in some areas.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight into
  Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through. Drier and more
  pleasant conditions will follow through Thursday.

- Another weak front will move through Friday, followed by a
  stronger front this weekend. Cooler and much drier conditions
  are expected heading into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the dense fog
developing tonight, followed by a couple of cold fronts that will
bring cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.

Starting with tonight, plenty of low-level moisture remains in
place ahead of the approaching cold front. As winds become light
to calm, the saturated boundary layer will allow fog to develop
across portions of the area. The greatest concern will be across
the Northshore and coastal Mississippi where the combination of
radiational cooling, moisture pooling ahead of the front, and the
influence of the nearby Gulf waters will support more widespread
dense fog. Because of this, a Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect
for Washington and St. Tammany Parishes as well as Pearl River,
Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties through 8 AM Wednesday.
Visibilities could drop to 1/4 mile or less, particularly during
the early morning hours. The main thing that could disrupt the fog
will be the approaching front and any showers or increases in
winds associated with it.

Speaking of the front, the negatively tilted 500mb trough
currently moving across the Mississippi Valley will continue
progressing northeast overnight. Although sufficient forcing
exists to support a line of showers and a few thunderstorms, the
best dynamics remain displaced well north of our area. Therefore,
convection should continue weakening as it progresses eastward,
with the greatest rain chances generally across southwest
Mississippi and the Baton Rouge area. Most locations farther east
should see little precipitation. The front should move through
Wednesday morning, bringing northwest winds and drier air into the
area. This will help clear out any lingering fog and low clouds,
with improving conditions throughout the day.

By Wednesday night, shortwave ridging will move across the area
and allow surface high pressure to briefly take over. This will
bring a rather substantial decrease in deep-layer moisture, with
PW values potentially falling to around 0.5-0.75 inches. With the
much drier airmass, mostly clear skies, and light winds,
efficient radiational cooling should take place Wednesday night.
Looking at the latest NBM guidance, skies should clear fairly
quickly behind the front with winds becoming light overnight.
Therefore, minimum temperatures were lowered Thursday morning to
account for the favorable cooling conditions. Lows should
generally fall into the low to mid 50s across the northern areas
with upper 50s and low 60s closer to the coast. Thursday will be
rather pleasant with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s as plenty
of sunshine returns.

However, another fast-moving shortwave will approach Thursday
night into Friday, bringing our next weak cold front. Unlike the
previous system, the main question will be whether sufficient
moisture can return ahead of this feature to produce any
meaningful precipitation. With such a short period between fronts,
the better moisture looks to remain confined to areas along and
south of I-10. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers will be
possible across the southern portions of the area Thursday night
into Friday, while most northern locations remain dry. Instability
will be rather limited with weak mid-level lapse rates, so
thunderstorm activity should be minimal.

The other forecast challenge Friday will be temperatures. With
most guidance favoring mostly clear skies across the northern half
of the area, maximum temperatures were increased slightly there
to account for better daytime heating. Highs should generally
reach around 80 to the lower 80s across the northern areas, with
upper 70s closer to the coast where more cloud cover is expected.
Minimum temperatures Friday morning were also increased slightly
along the coast due to the expected increase in cloud cover ahead
of the shortwave limiting radiational cooling.

As the aforementioned trough moves east Friday night, another
reinforcing front will push through the area and bring another
round of dry air advection. This should effectively end any
lingering precipitation chances and bring cooler temperatures for
Saturday. Highs should generally only reach the low to mid 70s
with mostly dry conditions across the area. Another surge of
northerly flow will reinforce the cooler airmass Saturday night,
with lows falling into the low to mid 40s across the northern half
of the area and remaining in the 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The main forecast challenge in the long term will be what happens
with the southern-stream trough across the southwestern CONUS, as
guidance continues to struggle with its evolution. The biggest
question is whether this trough is able to eject northeastward
across the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday or if it becomes cut
off over the Baja region. These two scenarios would have rather
different implications for our sensible weather, particularly
precipitation chances Sunday into early next week.

Looking at the latest 00Z deterministic guidance, the GFS favors a
more progressive solution with the southern-stream trough ejecting
across our area Sunday. This would provide sufficient synoptic
forcing for surface low pressure development along the northern
Gulf Coast and potentially bring some precipitation into the area.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF favors cutting off the southern portion of
the trough over Baja, effectively delaying its eastward
progression and keeping the better forcing well to our west. This
would allow more subsidence and surface high pressure to remain
over our area, keeping conditions predominantly dry. Given these
differences, confidence in precipitation chances Sunday remains
rather low.

Even if the more progressive solution comes to fruition, the
other question will be how much moisture is available for this
system to work with. The reinforcing cold front moving through
Saturday will bring a much drier continental airmass into the
area, which could make sufficient moisture return difficult.
Therefore, even with better forcing, precipitation may remain
confined to areas along the coast and offshore waters. However, if
surface low pressure develops farther north along the coast,
better low-level moisture and convergence could extend
precipitation chances farther inland.

Beyond Sunday, the forecast will largely depend on which solution
plays out. If the trough ejects across the area, subsidence and
surface high pressure should build back in behind it Monday and
Tuesday, bringing mostly dry conditions. However, if the southern-
stream energy remains cut off farther west, the next opportunity
for precipitation would be delayed until that energy eventually
progresses eastward. Regardless, temperatures should generally
remain near seasonal averages with highs in the upper 60s to 70s
and lows in the 40s across northern areas and 50s closer to the
coast. Some moderation will be possible into Tuesday as the cooler
airmass gradually modifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The main aviation concern throughout this TAF period will continue
to be low ceilings and fog overnight into Wednesday morning. IFR
conditions are already affecting several terminals, with LIFR
conditions at GPT where dense fog has reduced visibilities to
1/4SM and ceilings to around 200 ft. With plenty of low-level
moisture in place and winds generally light to calm, IFR to LIFR
conditions will remain possible through the morning hours,
especially at GPT, ASD, and MCB. A few showers will also be
possible overnight, primarily at BTR and MCB, which could
temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities even further. As a
cold front moves through the area Wednesday morning, winds will
gradually become more northwesterly and drier air will begin
filtering in. This, along with daytime mixing, should allow
conditions to improve back to VFR at most terminals between
14-18Z, although GPT may hold onto dense fog until around 15Z. A
few additional showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon across
the eastern terminals, but coverage should remain rather limited.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light south to southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt will continue
through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The main
concern tonight will be dense fog, especially across the
Mississippi Sound, Lake Borgne, and Chandeleur Sound, where
visibilities could fall below 1 NM. Dense Fog Advisories are in
effect for portions of these waters through Wednesday morning. A
few showers and thunderstorms will also be possible as the front
moves through Wednesday, with winds shifting to the northwest
behind it. However, the pressure gradient will remain rather weak,
so winds should stay relatively light through Thursday as surface
high pressure moves across the waters. Another weak front will
move through Friday with some scattered showers possible, mainly
across the southern waters. A stronger reinforcing front will
follow Friday night into Saturday, bringing increasing north to
northeast winds around 10 to 15 kt, with some winds approaching 20
kt across the outer waters Saturday night. Another increase in
northerly winds is expected Sunday into Sunday night, potentially
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria as seas build.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ039-076-079-
     080.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ534.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ