102
FXUS64 KLIX 190754
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
254 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

PW values have lowered to 1.8" which is still enough moisture to
produce rain, but suppression down to 700mb is making for a strong
inversion with dry air above. This will help to keep any sh/ts
developing with exception of coastal locations of SELA where the PW
boundary will be located. But even those rain chances won`t be high.
There could be some patchy fog around each morning but this should
not be dense and won`t last long either. Little if any sh/ts
expected Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Conditions are still conducive for waterspouts today, but this
begins to change as we move into late Thu into the weekend. We will
have a few easterly waves that traverse the gulf late in the weekend
into next week and this will at least enhance rain chances during
that time frame. The large stacked high is begining to move NE and
will eventually center itself over southern TX by the weekend. The
extended holds some very interesting features. The first is what
will grab headlines which will be the area in the NW Caribbean that
has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 7
days. The other is a very deep fast digging upper trough into the
country as this tropical cyclone is supposed to start developing.
This is what models are advertising to pick this tropical system up
bringing it north then NE. The upper trough moves so fast that
strong modifying is not able to take full effect. IF this tropical
system moves east of the area, it could help bring this very dry
cool air into the area. That is a big IF at the moment. We will have
to see how this works out but at some point over the next month we
should see the first true cold front move into or through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Other than one or two sites getting MVFR conditions with vis this
morning, all terminals should remain VFR this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Winds become more stable and established from the east and rise to
around 10-15kt over the weekend. These conditions should be the rule
for the next several days along with a few sh/ts that may develop
over nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  94  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  92  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  90  75  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  90  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  93  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE