Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
247 FXUS64 KLIX 131132 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Drier conditions are here for the next couple days. - Temperatures return to 5-7 degrees above average by mid-week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Heading into the start of our work week we will warm a couple degrees thanks to a ridge building in from the west. This ridge will slowly progress eastward, becoming more centered over our area on Tuesday. This will bring yet another degree or two temperature increase for afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday. While we may warm up a touch, the dry air that filtered in over the weekend is here to stay for the next couple days which will help keep a more pleasant feel outdoors in the afternoons. Our upper level high pressure and this dry air lead to no rain chances in sight for the short term forecast period. Kept edits in for the early morning low temperatures as we saw much cooler temperatures Sunday morning than the NBM had. This brings Monday morning lows into the low to mid 50s for many. Additionally, similar to previous days blended in the NBM10 for afternoon dew points. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Heading into the long term period, the upper level high will be pretty centered over the state on Wednesday. We will gradually start to see this high break up heading into late week as an upper level trough gradually pushes eastward from the west coast. The high breaking down allows rain chances to begin to creep back in heading into the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday showing PoPs up into the 25-35% range after all week seeing ~0%. In terms of temperatures, by Wednesday we will be back up to ~5-7 degrees above climate normals for this time of year. Looking at the CPC outlooks for temperature does not give any good news for the future of temperatures either. We will keep cooler mornings Wednesday and Thursday, but those low temperatures will also jump back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by late week as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 All forecast terminals were VFR at forecast issuance time, and are likely to remain that way through the forecast period. There have been a few non-TAF airports that have reported brief fog this morning, but those appear to be very isolated in scope. Traffic and other webcams aren`t showing any fog to support anything more widespread. No change in the airmass expected for tomorrow morning, and don`t anticipate threat to increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Northerly offshore flow will persist today through early/mid-week thanks to high pressure over the eastern US and a developing low off the Carolina coast. This will keep conditions benign with light waves/seas and winds, as well as dry conditions. East to east- southeast flow does pick up some mid/late week, ranging 10 to 15 knots but will remain low impact and mainly dry into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 86 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 85 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 85 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 86 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RW MARINE...HL