Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
731 FXUS64 KLIX 041737 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Ongoing isolated to scattered convection will wane during the as we move into the late afternoon and evening hours in response to the loss instability associated with daytime heating. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with overnight lows generally forecast in the low to mid 70s, which is near to slightly above normal depending on the location. Tomorrow will see conditions similar today, though the convective focus should shift more into the southern half of the area rather than the southwestern half. Either way, convection is generally forecast to be isolated to widely scattered and won`t provide much in the way of relief from the afternoon heat. Thankfully daytime heating should promote vertical mixing and a slight reduction in afternoon dewpoints, keeping heat index values hot but not oppressive. Current forecast calls for afternoon heat index values to peak in the 100 to 105 degree range most places, which is a few degrees shy of heat advisory criteria and on par with values we would normally see this time of year. That being said, people with outdoor plans should still take precautions against heat- related illnesses by staying hydrated and taking breaks in the shade or air conditioning to cool off. Once again, convection should wane by or shortly after sunset, and another warm night is on tap with overnight lows only falling into the mid to upper 70s most places. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Beginning Sunday, the pattern will change, resulting in more active weather. The upper ridge over the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will break down as High pressure builds into the southwestern CONUS with a second high building over the western Atlantic. This will put the local area in the weakness between thew two ridges as several weak shortwaves pass well to the north of the local area. With onshore winds bringing moisture back into the area from the Gulf, expect an increase in afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage. Should see scattered to numerous daily showers and storms with a typical summertime diurnal pattern to convection. Convection should be mostly limited to the Gulf waters and coastal areas overnight, becoming more numerous over land areas during the late morning and afternoon hours, before dissipating around sunset. That being said, will be carrying high end chance to likely POPs each day. This has little correlation to the amounts of rain forecast though. As a general area average rainfall totals over the next 7 days should be less than 2 inches. However, as is the case with summertime thunderstorms, localized totals could be substantially higher, with some thunderstorms possibly producing 1-2 inches in a relatively short period of time as they pass over any given location. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of any impacts from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have included PROB30 groups at HUM, MSY and NEW to account for this potential. Elsewhere, impacts cannot be ruled out, but probability is too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. Any lingering convection should dissipate around sunset as daytime instability wanes. Expect similar conditions Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any localized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow will persist through tomorrow be Broad high pressure is still dominating the Gulf and is centered to the south. This is leading to generally light offshore flow which will remain in place through Saturday before becoming a little more chaotic and dominated by diurnal fluctuations heading into next week. Convection will be a little more sparse this morning and through Saturday but could increase and increase significantly Sunday morning with numerous storms over the coastal waters overnight each night through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 50 BTR 74 96 75 94 / 10 20 10 60 ASD 71 94 72 93 / 10 20 20 50 MSY 78 95 80 93 / 10 20 10 70 GPT 74 93 74 91 / 10 30 20 50 PQL 72 94 72 92 / 0 30 30 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM