


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
159 FXUS64 KLIX 162314 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 614 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Upper ridge over the area to keep us on the dry side over the short term. - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend as a result of increasing moisture and a front. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday for the NW part of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Relatively dry conditions expected over the short term as an upper ridge currently centered over the ArkLaMiss States remains near the CWA. Going into the weekend, we will see it shift off to the southeast into the Gulf as a trough pushes northeastward over the western CONUS. At the surface, we have an area of high pressure currently over the Great Lakes Region, which is projected to continue pushing off southeastward. This will allow for the return of southeasterly flow tomorrow, then southerly flow will become dominant early in the weekend. Nevertheless, the short term will remain quiet as it sets up for a slightly more active long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 We start off the long term slightly more active, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms. We have a Marginal Risk for severe storms across nearly all of our MS counties and in our LA parishes along/north of the I-10 and west of the I-55. Despite the setup in the short term, we will not really see a significant increase in PWATs on Saturday, as they will be floating at and below the 75th percentile. However, going into Sunday, we could see PWATs get to the 90th percentile and higher. This, along with a weak cold front, will be the driver for showers and storms this weekend. Past FROPA, a high pressure will quickly move into and away from the region, eventually centering itself over the deep south by early next week. We could see another weak front, along with isolated chances of showers for the remainder of the week with the lingering moisture; however, nothing significant is expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 All terminals VFR at issuance. Really the only forecast issue is potential for radiation fog toward sunrise. Quite a spread in visibility forecast guidance. Have used CONSShort in the 09z-15z period as a compromise with IFR or lower visibilities at/near KMSY/KNEW/KHUM/KASD. Conditions should improve quickly by 15z, with VFR the remainder of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but do not expect any prolonged periods where winds exceed 20 knots. further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 63 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 68 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE...LCH AVIATION...RW