Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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159
FXUS64 KLIX 162314
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
614 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Upper ridge over the area to keep us on the dry side over the
   short term.

 - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend as a result of
   increasing moisture and a front.

 - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday for the
   NW part of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Relatively dry conditions expected over the short term as an
upper ridge currently centered over the ArkLaMiss States remains
near the CWA. Going into the weekend, we will see it shift off to
the southeast into the Gulf as a trough pushes northeastward over
the western CONUS.

At the surface, we have an area of high pressure currently over
the Great Lakes Region, which is projected to continue pushing off
southeastward. This will allow for the return of southeasterly
flow tomorrow, then southerly flow will become dominant early in
the weekend.

Nevertheless, the short term will remain quiet as it sets up for
a slightly more active long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

We start off the long term slightly more active, with isolated to
scattered chances for showers and storms. We have a Marginal Risk
for severe storms across nearly all of our MS counties and in our
LA parishes along/north of the I-10 and west of the I-55.

Despite the setup in the short term, we will not really see a
significant increase in PWATs on Saturday, as they will be
floating at and below the 75th percentile. However, going into
Sunday, we could see PWATs get to the 90th percentile and higher.
This, along with a weak cold front, will be the driver for
showers and storms this weekend.

Past FROPA, a high pressure will quickly move into and away from
the region, eventually centering itself over the deep south by
early next week. We could see another weak front, along with
isolated chances of showers for the remainder of the week with the
lingering moisture; however, nothing significant is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

All terminals VFR at issuance. Really the only forecast issue is
potential for radiation fog toward sunrise. Quite a spread in
visibility forecast guidance. Have used CONSShort in the 09z-15z
period as a compromise with IFR or lower visibilities at/near
KMSY/KNEW/KHUM/KASD. Conditions should improve quickly by 15z,
with VFR the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the
east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east-
southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in
response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet
by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected
to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly
get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but do
not expect any prolonged periods where winds exceed 20 knots.
further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. After
the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the
northwest, but choppy conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  86  64  86 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  63  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  30
ASD  61  85  65  85 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  68  88  71  88 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  66  84  70  84 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  62  86  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE...LCH
AVIATION...RW