641
FXUS64 KLIX 300445
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Upper low over the Appalachians should open up and begin to lift
northeastward Monday, but the overall trough axis remains pretty
anchored through the short term resulting in a little change to
the local weather. Generally a persistence forecast with very
slight moderation over the next day or two locally.

Lows generally forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs
in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dewpoints remain in the mid to
upper 60s keeping the relative humidity in check.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Really not much change from the previous forecast or thinking.
Upper trough gradually moves eastward and flattens through
midweek, resulting in a mostly zonal pattern across the CONUS by
Wednesday. A northern stream trough is forecast to move into the
Great Lakes region late in the weak, though there are differences
in both the timing and amplitude of this trough between the
various model solutions, as is common this time of year.

Why does this matter? Because the timing and depth of this trough
could play a significant role in what happens with the
disturbance forecast to develop in the western Caribbean around
midweek on the eastern periphery of the Central American Gyre.
Unsurprisingly, little clarity has been gained in the last 24
hours as there still isn`t any existing disturbance for models to
latch onto. This means how each model handles the eventual
disturbance varies greatly and is dependent on multiple factors -
where it develops, how quickly it deepens, and how it interacts
with the previously mentioned upper trough. Current solutions
range from a tropical cyclone landfall anywhere from Louisiana to
the southern Florida peninsula, to no real development at all.

Suffice to say, until a more defined disturbance develops, models
will continue to struggle in refining the details of this system.
We reiterate that there is little, if any, skill in predicting
details such as exactly where the system might move, how strong
it might be, or what impacts it might bring at this lead time and
we urge you not to focus on any individual model forecasts because
of this.

For now, will continue to stick near the NBM for a consensus
approach. This yields an increase in rain chances Thursday/Friday
as a weak front moves into the area. That front is then forecast
to wash out over the northern Gulf through the first part of the
weekend with some lingering rain chances in coastal areas.
Temperatures don`t fluctuate much through the extended, though
they do drop by a couple degrees in the wake of the front.
Generally expecting lows in the mid 60s to low 70s, and highs in
the 85-91 degree range most days.

If there`s one thing I know for sure, it`s that the forecast
beyond Wednesday will change, but by how much is anyones guess at
this point. So stay tuned and make sure you`re getting your
information from reliable sources that focus on the official
outlooks from NHC rather than scary model solutions that may or
may not ever verify.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

There is some mid and upper level clouds moving across the area
but otherwise no impacts with VFR conditions persisting through
the forecast. Winds will remain on the light and vrb side with
the only real changes due to lake/sea/land breeze development.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Benign conditions will prevail through at least midweek. Current
forecast calls for a weak front to move into the Gulf by late in
the week, which could result in slightly increased winds. However,
the forecast beyond Wednesday remains uncertain due to the factors
discussed above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  87  66  87 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  68  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  68  89  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  89  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DM