698
FXUS64 KLIX 222022
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
222 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening to 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 117 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

We have one more night of crazy cold across the area with
overnight lows in the mid-teens. Winds will be calm, so at least
there won`t really be a wind chill to deal with. However, from 6pm
tonight to 10am tomorrow morning there is a Cold Weather Advisory
in place meaning we are expecting overnight low temperatures at or
just slightly above 15 degrees. This is still dangerous territory
for impactful temperatures and we will raise the cautions again
to protect People, Pets, Pipes, and tender Plants. If you don`t
already know, consult with your local authorities about where
shelters and warming centers are available and check in on your
family, friends, and neighbors.

We have gotten some melting of the snowpack today with
temperatures rising just above freezing. However, with the falling
temperatures tonight that melted snow will refreeze into ice
leading to slippery conditions and slick roads. Ice is hard to see
and so I encourage everyone to stay inside and off the roads
tonight and early tomorrow morning!

So, with safety messages out of the way, I`ll jump back to the
forecasted conditions for a bit more of an explanation. We are on
the front edge of a deep, broad, upper level trough that is
bringing Arctic air onto us via CAA. In the lower levels we are
directly under high pressure which is giving us the low/calm
winds. The temperatures we are looking at are quite a bit lower
than we would usually see due to the snow pack we gained
yesterday, as much as 8 to 10 degrees lower. A combination of 1/3
NBM and 2/3 NBM10 got me into the forecasted range of lows for
tonight.

The good news is that tomorrow by mid-morning we should be
climbing above freezing and eventually end up maxing out in the
low to mid 40s. This veritable heat wave should take care of
melting off any remaining snow! Tomorrow night and Friday night we`ll
see low, but not bitterly cold temps, with the overnight lows in
the mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(12Z Saturday morning through Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 PM CSTWed Jan 22 2025

By Saturday during the day, we are seeing the overall weather
pattern warming with upper level flow bringing air from warmer
lattitudes. This gives us high temps in the low 50s increasing to
the low 60s for Sunday. Sunday brings us under a slight upper
level ridging, enough to develop some gulf moisture return flow.
We can expect to see increased rain chances starting Sunday into
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

All terminals are VFR. Surface high pressure moving over the area
combined with the lingering cold air has conditions very calm,
stable, and clear. These conditions are expected through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

We are currently under high pressure that is giving us calm
conditions in our lakes and coastal waters. As that moves past
we`ll start seeing increasing offshore winds that will probably
take us into Exercise Caution headlines tomorrow evening. Return
flow brings lower speed winds out of the SE for the weekend and
into the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  17  48  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  16  47  25  49 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  18  47  26  50 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  24  45  31  47 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  19  44  26  46 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  17  48  24  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Thursday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Thursday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS