876
FXUS64 KLIX 120814
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
314 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Upper low looks to be centered over the northwest portion of our
area early this morning with upper ridging to our east, north and
west. A shortwave trough was moving onto the West Coast. At the
surface, low pressure was over northern Mississippi, with high
pressure over the southern Rockies and off the Carolina coast.

A few sprinkles may be occurring along the Louisiana coast, but
overall things are dry under partly cloudy skies at 3 AM CDT with
temperatures generally in the 60s.

The trough moving into the western part of the country will
finally boot the upper low out of our area later today and
tonight. Similar to yesterday, there could be a few showers or
perhaps a thunderstorm during the day today, but any significant
threat of precipitation...or clouds...should end by sunset.

Highs today will be in the 75 to 80 degree range under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Sunny and warmer on Tuesday with reasonable
humidity levels. Mid to upper 80s for most of the area tomorrow,
although a sea breeze could hold the immediate coast down a couple
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Welcome to summer along the Gulf Coast. Ridging moves into the
Gulf and southeastern U.S. That`ll be the case through at least
Friday, and if the GFS is correct, through the entire weekend into
early next week. The ECMWF operational run, and around half of its
ensemble members, tries to push a cold front toward the area over
the weekend. That would increase the chance for showers and storms
during the afternoons over the weekend. For now, a compromise
solution brings a small chance of showers/storms to the area over
the weekend, but that wouldn`t be a washout by any means.

Forecast soundings indicate upper 80s for highs for most of the
area Wednesday, but wouldn`t be shocked to see a few spots hit 90.
Thursday and Friday are likely to see most or all of the area in
the lower 90s, with the possible exception of the immediate
coastal areas. That`s not far off the "normal" first 90 degree
reading, which is May 13th for Baton Rouge, the 17th for Slidell,
the 18th for New Orleans International Airport, the 21st for
McComb, and the 24th for Gulfport. The GFS solution would keep 90
degree highs in place through the weekend. Overnight lows will be
above normal, from the upper 60s to mid 70s for the 2nd half of
the week and over the weekend. Heat index values could top out
around 100 degrees each day from Thursday onward. This isn`t
enough to justify Heat Advisories, but as this will be the first
extended period of very warm conditions this season, it may take a
bit for folks to acclimate to the heat, even those that are used
to Gulf Coast summers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Reduced CIGs again overnight with mostly MVFR expected for some
terminals or perhaps even as low as IFR. Like the last day or two
this will improve shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, cannot rule
out a stray shower or storm. That said, timing and location are a
bit uncertain...left out of forecast for now, but a short fused
TEMPO may be needed for convection from mid morning onward for
coastal terminals. Outside of convection, VFR conditions expected
with up to moderate southerly winds. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Westerly winds around 15 knots, or perhaps a bit higher, will
necessitate Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines today for much
of the open waters. There are likely to be a few additional
periods this week where winds increase into the 15-18 knot range,
which would necessitate additional headlines. At this time, it
doesn`t appear conditions will deteriorate enough to justify Small
Craft Advisories, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  59  85  66 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  77  62  87  69 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  78  62  86  68 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  78  65  87  71 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  78  63  83  70 /  30  10   0   0
PQL  78  61  83  67 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW