451
FXUS64 KLIX 262032
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
332 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The upper level trough that brought yesterday`s showers and
thunderstorms is now east of the Appalachian Mountains. An upper
level ridge has begun to build in behind it. That`ll be the main
mechanism expected to limit convective coverage quite a bit as well
as keep temps several degrees above normal. So with that, this
weekend is the start of a similar forecast for a couple more days
and a transition to one that`ll hold the rest of the forecast.

Current obs indicate temperatures in the low to mid 80s which is
right in-line with the forecast. Looking into tomorrow and Monday,
the deterministic lows and highs don`t change much. That`s not much
of a surprise when looking at guidance where there`s very little
spread from the warmest and coldest members.

From a convective standpoint, what you see is probably what you`ll
get again tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have
developed along sea breeze boundaries closer to coastal parishes.
Relatively low PW`s in place and lack of synoptic forcing has been
and will continue to limit coverage. Small hail and gusty winds will
be the main threats with a high CAPE low shear environment. While
Sunday should be similar, do believe impacts from an MCS are
something to keep an eye on. The orientation of the ridge on Sunday
is such that the CWA will be sitting in NW flow. The GFS does show
potential for a cluster of convection to ride southeasterly on that
northwesterly flow, but its trajectory may be too far north to
impact the local area. If an MCS does develop, will need to keep an
eye on outflow boundary dragging it more southward than
southeastward.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The upper level ridge is expected build slightly more north and
northeastward during the first half of the week. So should be no
surprise that the forecast calls for slightly warmer temps as 500 mb
heights increase locally. The locations that reach into the upper
80s to near 90 may reach or break a record depending on the day.

The second half of the week is where changes are more likely. Global
models show an upper level trough moving through the country, cross
the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Solutions suggest that it`s a
merger between northern and southern stream jets. With such high
variability potential changes between now and then and models
ability (or lack there of) to resolve that complex of a solution, am
less confidence on specific local impacts other than possibly
return of rain chances.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Mostly MVFR to VFR cigs still in place across the region. Will need
to monitor radar for short term amendments as isolated storms are
possible this afternoon. Otherwise, the same issues for tonight is
expected with several sites having IFR vis possibly around sunrise.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

High pressure will be centered directly over or just to the east of
the waters through this fcast which will result in light winds of
around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet on average. Fog could be an
issue again tonight on the Miss River but not expecting issues over
warmer waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  68  88  66  88 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  67  87  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  69  86  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  68  85  67  83 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  65  86  64  85 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE