653
FXUS64 KLIX 070926
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Rafael will be moving westward eventually and for this time of year,
that goes almost opposite of climatology. Eventhough Rafael will be
well south of our area, the gradient between it and the building
ridge to its north(over us) will cause easterly winds to rise with a
dynamic fetch set up along the FL west coast then into our east
facing shoreline. This will cause tides to remain elevated for the
next few days. This should remain nuisance coastal flooding
depending on how strong the winds get. We will be keeping the
coastal flood advisory but will widdle it back to involve mainly the
east facing shorelines and try to follow the times of high tide
levels since this is the time that these highest levels will be
possible. We will be seeing this system for several days because
once it moves west of 90W it will begin to slow and even stall or
meander around maybe even making a loop before advancing again. This
slowing should occur Fri night into Sat.

There were several locations that cloud decks came in at or less
than 1kft. These will need to hold and lower if there is to be dense
fog this morning. The environment is not very supportive as temps
are well into the 70s and there is some overturning as evidenced by
the line of showers moving west through the Miss coastal counties.
The only areas that have the highest chance of dense fog will be
west of the Miss River with the best conditions for set down west of
the Atchafalaya. Since there are still only weak conditions for
dense fog, we will hold off and issue an advisory if this starts to
form this morning. Tonight will be even harder for fog to form since
the winds will begin to pick up enough to mix it out even though
this is advection fog variables and we would need wind, this is not
the typical advective pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

We will still be working with Rafael into the new week coming but
there is still no evidence of it moving into our area. A new front
will move to the TX/LA line and stall much like the last one did. As
short wave impulses drop to the base of the long wave trough out
west, these fronts will continue to stall and back off as the ridge
to the east is successively reinforced and strengthened which is
what will be forcing Rafael around the central gulf. This front will
also provide a chance of rain if it can get close enough and this
looks to be the case. Moisture profiles will deepen with PWs
approaching 2" by late Fri into Sat thanks to the moisture envelope
of Rafael. This should be enough to give some heavy rainfall. This
could be and issue as the lines of sh/ts that set up would not be
moving much. The Euro has been showing a strong cold front cleaning
the area by mid to late next week. The GFS is now starting to show a
front in this time frame stalling over the area. The Euro solution,
as far as climo is concerned, would be the most probable since this
would be a very normal time to get a strong cold front displacing
the incredible record breaking heat. We will begin to play along
with the Euro scenario as it is still initializing very well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

MVFR to IFR cigs will be found at the majorty of sites this morning.
RA probs may be just high enough at least this morning to show a
prevailing group for some coastal sites. Cigs should rise by mid
morning to VFR levels. Tonight will show sites going mostly to MVFR
near the coast and IFR farther inland due to cigs. Vis should remain
above IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Peripheral impacts from the interaction between Rafael and the
strong ridging over the gulf coast will occur in the form of winds
and seas. Winds should remain easterly through the end of the week
but becoming SErly over the weekend at around 20kt. Seas will be
made of wind waves and a lot of swell coming from Rafael for the
next several days. We will bring up the caution and advisory
statements with this package and we will try to make this as simple
as possible since these flags will remain for several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  69  82  68 /  10  20  30  30
BTR  89  73  86  73 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  86  71  84  71 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  85  74  83  74 /  20  10  20  20
GPT  85  70  83  70 /  20  20  20  10
PQL  89  71  86  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     LAZ058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Friday for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for GMZ550-552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for GMZ570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Friday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for GMZ552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE