914
FXUS64 KLIX 040859
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Not only a warm and breezy day yesterday across the area, but
currently an exceptionally warm and humid night for early April.
Even at 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are mainly in the
mid and upper 70s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. A
couple locations, McComb (76) and New Orleans International
Airport (77), tied their records for warmest low temperatures for
the month of April yesterday.

Upper ridging remains situated between Bermuda and the Bahamas
this morning, with a deep upper trough extending from south-
central Canada to Arizona. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from near Pittsburgh to Memphis to the Texas Big Bend
region.

As the next shortwave moves through the base of the upper trough
over the next 24 hours, it will actually pull the northern end of
the frontal boundary to our west westward, while the southern end
creeps eastward. By Saturday morning, the boundary will be near a
Cleveland-Paducah-Brownsville line. This will keep the pressure
gradient fairly tight over the next 24 hours, but perhaps not to
the extent of the last 2 days. Cannot rule out a few rain showers
entirely today across western areas.

The southern end of the trough to the west will see the shortwave
lift northeastward through Texas and Oklahoma Saturday and
Saturday night. Scattered showers and storms will be possible by
late afternoon Saturday, but the main concern for thunderstorms,
some of which are expected to be strong to severe, will be
overnight Saturday night, especially after midnight. Precipitable
water values just ahead of the front will be approaching 1.9
inches, which is pretty much the top of the chart for early April.
Instability and shear will certainly be sufficient for severe
weather, but perhaps not quite as extreme as the last couple
events locally. The greatest (Enhanced Risk, or 3 of 5) threat
appears to be generally to the west of Interstate 55 Saturday
night, but can`t be entirely discounted anywhere in our CWA.

With the extremely moist airmass in place Saturday night, very
heavy rain will certainly be possible. Convection is expected to
be fairly progressive across our area, fortunately, but areas
could pick up a quick 2 inches, locally higher. If that occurs
over an urban area over a short time, that could produce brief
flooding issues.

Extremely warm temperatures are expected to continue until the
front passes, with record temperatures remaining in danger. Low
temperatures Saturday night will be extremely dependent on where
the frontal boundary is at sunrise Sunday, with 70s to the east of
the boundary, and 60s or even upper 50s to the west of the
boundary.

Will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory through the high tide
cycles today and Saturday. At present, looks like about a foot or
so above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Showers and storms could linger over at least the eastern half of
the area Sunday, mainly in the morning. A few severe storms
remain possible Sunday morning east of Interstate 55. A much
cooler airmass will overspread the area late Sunday and Monday,
with high temperatures mainly in the 60s behind the front.
Overnight lows will feel downright chilly compared to the current
weather behind the front for Monday morning through Wednesday
morning. Low temperatures approaching 40 will be possible in some
of the normally cooler spots Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will gradually moderate to near to above normal by
the end of next week, with little or no precipitation once the
Sunday frontal passage departs the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Primarily MVFR ceilings this morning, although KGPT remains at IFR
levels. Similar to the last couple days, MVFR conditions during
the morning may improve to VFR, at least temporarily, during the
late morning and afternoon hours at most terminals as breaks
develop in the cloud cover. Most likely to remain at MVFR or IFR
would be KASD and KGPT. All terminals likely to lower again to
MVFR to IFR after sunset. Brief SHRA will be possible, especially
at KBTR and KMCB, but thunder doesn`t appear to be a major threat
for the current package.

Wind speeds will again increase during the daytime hours with
gusts to 25 to 30 knots likely at most terminals, before relaxing
some after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Currently looks like hazardous conditions will continue through at
least Saturday night with the strong onshore flow continuing. The
Small Craft Advisory will probably need to be extended through
Saturday night later today, and perhaps into Sunday, as seas will
likely need some time to subside. Could see some gusts to gale
force over the far western waters on Saturday, but not confident
enough to justify a Gale Watch/Warning quite yet. Behind the
frontal passage, could need some Exercise Caution headlines for
portions of the waters Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  66 /  30  10  60  90
BTR  88  75  88  66 /  20   0  50  90
ASD  85  74  85  70 /  10  10  30  80
MSY  86  75  86  71 /  10   0  20  80
GPT  80  72  80  69 /  10  10  30  60
PQL  82  71  83  69 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-
     066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW