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FXUS64 KLIX 150521 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1121 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Upper troughing that brought yesterday`s strong to severe storms
extended from the western Great Lakes to the Carolinas this
afternoon, with ridging across the Great Plains. Yesterday`s cold
front extended from the eastern Florida Panhandle to the central
Gulf of Mexico with high pressure centered over Texas.
Temperatures at mid-afternoon were generally in the 70s across
the area with clear skies, with the exception being 81 degrees at
Pascagoula. That`s not an unusual occurrence with northerly winds.
Dew points were generally in the 50s, although McComb was
reporting a dew point of 46. Clouds had departed the area by
midday.

The surface and upper high pressures will move slowly east over
the next 36 hours with the axis east of the local area by Saturday
morning. Unlikely to see much, if any, cloud development over the
next 36 hours. We`re getting to the time of year where it wouldn`t
be unreasonable to see a little bit of fog over the rivers around
sunrise. Not sure the winds will decouple enough tonight, but
maybe a little more potential toward sunrise Saturday.

Overall, temperature guidance is pretty close, although NBM
overnight lows definitely don`t catch the cool off in the
Pascagoula and Pearl River Drainage Basins. Have lowered overnight
lows several degrees there both tonight and tomorrow night. Would
likely trend toward the warmer end of high temperature guidance
tomorrow, which the NBM has accounted for.

Local tide levels should not be a problem for the high tide cycle
tonight, but may reach the low end of advisory level conditions
tomorrow night, and more confidently Saturday night as return flow
strengthens. We`ll continue to assess this over the next few
runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Upper ridge will shift eastward to the Bahamas Monday and then sag
southward into the Caribbean by midweek next week. A strong
shortwave near Las Vegas on Saturday will move into the Texas
Panhandle on Monday, and toward the western Great Lakes on
Tuesday. That will be followed quickly by another shortwave moving
into the Four Corners area on Tuesday and into Oklahoma or
Missouri on Wednesday.

Weekend weather looks nice with above normal temperatures.
Moisture increases ahead of the shortwave on Monday with showers
and storms possible ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday.
Quite a bit of difference in the surface pattern beyond that point
as the GFS essentially has one surface low and cold front with
the lead shortwave, while the ECMWF develops a more significant
cyclone over the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday.

While Tropical Storm Sara is not forecast to directly impact the
northern Gulf Coast, the troughing moving through the lower
Mississippi River Valley early next week is likely to entrain
moisture from Sara. This is more likely to occur with the first
shortwave/cold frontal passage, and it is possible that the
current forecast underplays forecast PoPs and amounts for Monday
night into Tuesday.

The current forecast more closely resembles the 12z GFS solution
with very little precipitation beyond Tuesday evening, but
confidence in details for that time frame is lower than we`d
prefer. With the significant difference in surface patterns from
Tuesday evening through midday Thursday, the deterministic
temperatures from the 12z GFS and ECMWF guidance exhibit as much
as 10-15F spread, with the deterministic NBM numbers being a
compromise solution. The 00z ECMWF ensemble numbers had a 25F
spread at some of our locations for Wednesday/Thursday, so we
could definitely see some swings in forecast solutions. One thing
that is fairly clear is that we`ll finally see some below normal
temperatures by the end of next week, just a question of exact
timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the cycle with mostly clear skies
anticipated. Otherwise, surface winds will generally be northerly
and less than 10 knots except slightly higher for NEW. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Will keep current headlines in place overnight for low end
Small Craft Advisory criteria. A brief period of somewhat quieter
conditions then onsets until return flow strengthens late Saturday
night. More significant winds/seas potentially for early next week
with one or more frontal passages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  45  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  56  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  50  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  82  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW