833
FXUS64 KLIX 280951
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

No fog to worry about for now, but there could be some showers
sneaking onshore Sat morning. We can sum it up by saying sunny north
cloudy south with maybe a few showers Sat morning and Sunday will be
fine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Monday, skies will begin to fill with clouds once again as the old
frontal boundary over the gulf will kick back as a warm front and
showers form along it as well as south of it due to moisture
loading. The thermal boundary stalls just north of the area and this
is where a sfc low will move along and dissipate Monday, guidance
has all but totally dropped this feature but there is some evidence
that it is still there even in the model fields. We will keep a 20-
30% chance of rain for Monday but this will not cause adverse
impacts. The sfc low associated with the next system starts up on
the bottom side of a weak upper high(H3 level). The low actually
starts to move into the NVA side of the upper flow until the upper
high breaks down and the sfc low is able to rapidly devlop
frontogenisis Tue morning. This sfc low will follow roughly the same
path the previous sfc low moves. But since the previous low(Monday`s
low) moves right into the NVA side of the upper flow, it is at a
tremedous disadvantage and basically decays. A line of storms should
quickly evolve Tue morning over central TX and start moving fast to
the east. The line of storms will be along a prefrontal trough. NBM
guidance is broad on the precip chances with this since its ensemble
members show different timing with each, owing to the higher
standard deviation. The best guidance has this line from MCB to BTR
by midnight Tue night. This is the farthest west that the line could
be at midnight. Chances are not very high to the west of this geo
line. This is simply the highest probability, but probabilities are
moderate and tapper as one moves east. The farthest east for any
real probabilities is along a geo line from Pearl River to New
Orleans at midnight Tue night. At the moment, this line could end up
being anywhere along or between these two locations. There will be
some showers out ahead of this line but are not expected to be an
issue. We will continue to work on the timing since this is the only
real issue that gives the lowest confidence levels at the moment. We
know this will be a line of storms moving through with the cold
front to follow and some of these storms could become strong to
severe with all the severe wx modes possible. The threat of severe
weakens as one moves south along this line, so basically, the higher
chances of severe will be over the northern half of the area while
the lowest will be over the southern. This front will not be hanging
around and should quickly move well offshore Wed. High pressure will
settle over the area for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A reinforcing front will move into the northern gulf Sat night into
Sunday where the current stalled front is located. This coupled
frontal boundary will then move back north as a warm front early
Mon. Wind speeds should mostly remain at 15kt or less through this
fcast until onshore flow begins early next week with 15-20kt ahead
of the next stronger cold front expected to move through Wed with
strong NW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  46  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  73  50  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  53  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  49  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  73  48  77  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE